After more than a decade of conflict in Ukraine, beginning with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and intensifying dramatically with Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the world is finally starting to see faint but tangible signs of diplomacy. For the first time, the battlefield stalemate is matched by renewed determination among the United States and its NATO allies to create space for negotiations. Amid this moment, it is worth asking: what real leverage can the West bring to the table?
Trump’s Diplomatic Gesture
President Donald Trump’s administration deserves recognition for initiating, however tentative, dialogue between President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky. Although no face-to-face meeting has yet taken place, Washington has hosted multilateral consultations and encouraged both European leaders and Kyiv to maintain open diplomatic channels. In a war where entrenched positions limit prospects for compromise, simply opening doors to dialogue represents a subtle yet significant shift.
To be clear, the Trump administration’s approach has been unconventional. It has used back-channel communication, relied on strategic ambiguity, and prioritised bilateral negotiations over broader institutional frameworks. However, sometimes disruption is necessary for diplomacy. The priority now is to institutionalise any progress, ensuring that future U.S. administrations sustain momentum toward a negotiated peace.
The Untapped Bargaining Chip
Frozen Russian Assets, but intent alone is not enough. Lasting peace demands leverage, and Washington and its allies possess one of the strongest bargaining tools, Russia’s frozen assets.
Since 2022, nearly $300 billion of Russian Central Bank reserves have been immobilised in Western jurisdictions, with about $5 billion held in the United States. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Justice has confiscated approximately $700 million in oligarch-linked assets, including superyachts and luxury penthouses. Currently, the G7 has started directing the interest from these holdings toward Ukraine.
This reveals a simple truth: sanctions do not have to remain fixed as punishments. They can evolve into flexible tools of diplomacy. When used effectively, frozen assets can: –
– Finance Ukraine’s recovery and defence procurement
– Reinforce NATO unity and credibility
– Provide a direct incentive for Russia to engage in meaningful negotiations.
Legal debates about outright seizure continue. European officials remain divided on whether the complete confiscation of Russian sovereign assets is in line with international law. But even without a full seizure, existing financial mechanisms can prevent this wealth from remaining idle. Escrow funds, investment-backed recovery bonds, or conditional disbursements linked to diplomatic benchmarks could all be considered viable options.
Done correctly, these frozen billions could serve as the financial backbone of both Ukraine’s resistance and its future reconstruction.
Rebuilding Ukraine
Beyond Bricks and Mortar, Ukraine’s Reconstruction Requires More Than Just Restoring Infrastructure. It involves rebuilding civil society, modernising governance, revitalising industries, and creating sustainable livelihoods. The World Bank estimates the total cost of Ukraine’s full recovery could surpass $400 billion. Leveraging frozen Russian assets not only provides funding, but it also shifts the moral responsibility. It ensures that the aggressor, not just Western taxpayers, bears accountability for the destruction.
This also has geopolitical implications. The West’s ability to coordinate such an initiative would demonstrate its unity and long-term dedication to both accountability and stability. It would also serve as a model for managing similar conflicts in the future, where aggressive states face repercussions not only on the battlefield but also in their recovery finances.
NATO’s Task, Not India’s Burden. This is, at its core, a NATO challenge. U.S. policymakers should resist the temptation to shift responsibility onto partners beyond the transatlantic sphere. Pressuring non-aligned countries like India, a nation with its own historic ties to Moscow, only complicates the situation.
Instead, Washington must focus on building consensus within NATO around the strategic deployment of frozen assets, linking them directly to Ukraine’s defence and long-term reconstruction.
This isn’t just about ethics or fairness; it’s a matter of effectiveness. If NATO cannot act decisively in its own region, its credibility elsewhere, from the Indo-Pacific to the Sahel, will inevitably be impacted.
India’s Delicate Balance
New Delhi has, with characteristic pragmatism, navigated this conflict carefully. It has avoided outright condemnation of Moscow at the United Nations while continuing to import Russian crude oil.
This arrangement, which was quietly coordinated with the U.S. in April 2023 and reaffirmed in 2024, was designed in part to stabilise global energy prices for Europe and America.
This balancing act reflects India’s strategic calculation. It is simultaneously a key partner for Washington in the Indo-Pacific and one of Moscow’s most enduring allies in defence and energy. For the U.S., maintaining trust with India has become essential, especially as tariffs and trade disputes threaten to overshadow broader concerns in technology, security, and long-term alliance building.
From Ukraine to the Indo-Pacific
The Quad’s Role
The lessons from Ukraine go beyond Europe. The Quad, comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, has become a key part of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Its goal is to strengthen a rules-based order in maritime areas. Still, its credibility depends on whether democracies can not only deter aggression but also solve conflicts when they occur.
India’s role in the Quad is twofold
First, its approach to the Russia–Ukraine crisis demonstrates how pragmatism can reduce polarisation in great-power rivalries. Second, as a key member of the Quad, India anchors the coalition that Washington views as a counterbalance to China’s assertiveness in Asia, providing a strategic balance essential for the region’s stability.
India has already shown its willingness to engage in digital governance, cyber norms, and maritime security. The Quad’s next step should be to expand its working groups to cover post-conflict reconstruction planning, information warfare countermeasures, and coordinated responses to economic coercion tools that autocratic regimes are increasingly using.
Trump–Modi: Resetting the Agenda in the Age of AI
Looking ahead, the next test for U.S.-India cooperation will come when President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York next month. The opportunity surpasses tariffs or trade tensions.
The true frontier lies in cyber defence, artificial intelligence (AI), and critical technologies. Both nations recognise that AI will influence not just markets but also military capabilities and battlefield dynamics. When managed effectively, Indo–U.S. cooperation on AI can serve as a means to align innovation, counter cyber threats, and strengthen Quad security architectures.
Joint AI research labs have started pilot programs in medical diagnostics and language translation. New cybersecurity exercises have been suggested to simulate attacks on critical infrastructure. Additionally, private sector coalitions are exploring quantum encryption frameworks that could protect sensitive data across borders.
How Washington and New Delhi manage this technological partnership will shape not only their bilateral relationship but also the future power dynamics in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.
Conclusion
Sanctions into Solutions
Frozen Russian assets represent more than just a Financial Tool. They symbolise the West’s ability to turn punitive measures into constructive solutions, transforming Russia’s billions into a plan for peace. Meanwhile, U.S.–India relations serve as a reminder that strategic trust must be maintained in a time when alliances are tested by war in Europe and competition in Asia.
Suppose America and its allies can weave together these strands, applying financial leverage against Moscow, supporting Ukraine’s defence and recovery, and strengthening trust with India and the Quad. In that case, democracies can show that they are still both resilient and forward-looking.
Frozen wealth, in this reading, is not just about punishing Russia. It is about reshaping the geopolitics of peace from Kyiv to New Delhi, from Brussels to the South China Sea.