The Pahalgam attack has shattered the illusion of normalcy in Kashmir. Despite narratives of stability and tourist inflows, the underlying threat of Pakistan-backed terrorism remains alive and lethal. The Pakistani establishment, caught between internal collapse and external desperation, has shown its hand. Their defense minister’s candid admission about sponsoring terror training while deflecting blame for attacks on India reveals the duplicity India has faced for decades.
War drums are easy to beat, especially for those who do not fight. Yet, history teaches us that wars, once started, have a slow, merciless pace. As seen in Ukraine and Gaza, conflict prolongs suffering, drains national strength, and achieves only incremental gains unless waged with a clear vision and iron resolve.
India must choose its path with clarity, not emotion. A knee-jerk war will not end Pakistan’s strategy of bleeding India. What is needed is a calibrated, near-term response backed by a long-term national strategy that reflects not just anger but endurance, foresight, and strength.
Fear Psychosis in Pakistan
Pakistan’s redeployment of formations in Kharian and Sialkot, the alerting of its Air Force, Navy, SIGINT, and TECHINT units, and the evacuation of border villages reflect a panic-stricken establishment. Pakistan’s economy is crumbling, its polity fractured, its military overstretched. Its leaders know that a conventional war, even a limited one, would push them toward internal disintegration.
The Pakistani Army Chief’s address to the diaspora—playing up Kashmir and Hindu-Muslim divides—is desperate. It was intended to distract from their Western Border crises and to fuel communal sentiment within India. The Pahalgam treachery was an outcome of this ideological poisoning.
Yet ironically, the attack has (for now) united Kashmiris and Indian Muslims against Pakistan’s designs. Kashmiris value peace, tourism, and development, not another cycle of bloodshed.
The Illusion of Deterrence and Balakot
Jabbar Top air strike was a tactical success, but a strategic message, primarily aimed at the domestic Indian audience. It was never a lasting deterrent. Pakistan absorbed the shock, adapted, and continued its proxy war.
Deterrence works only when it is part of a larger, relentless strategy. Isolated strikes, however satisfying, cannot achieve strategic goals alone. The slow beat of conflict demands a sustained and coherent national policy.
The Reality on the Ground in Kashmir
A dangerous pursuit of optics over complex ground control compromised the security situation around Pahalgam. Reducing the Army’s footprint for “normalcy” without ensuring local security resilience created exploitable gaps.
The civil administration failed to detect or act on the militant presence despite a flood of ten thousand tourists. Local Overground Workers (OGWS) facilitated the attack, herding tourists into the ambush zone.
The Army’s Company Operating Base (COB), which once guarded the area, had been withdrawn. CRPF and J&K Police units, despite their proximity, were ineffective in preventing or responding to the attack. This operational reality must be acknowledged without defensiveness.
Is War an Answer?
Launching a war would satisfy calls for revenge. But would it stop Pakistan’s use of proxy terror?
Unlikely.
Wars create unpredictable escalations. QPQ (quid pro quo) retaliation cycles could spiral into nuclear brinkmanship, inviting third-party mediation. History shows that Pakistan uses “victimhood” narratives masterfully in international forums. A premature or poorly planned conflict would hand them propaganda victories.
Instead, India must aim for a battle of endurance. Wars must be fought to achieve a political end, not to vent anger.
Near-Term Response Strategy
Precision Strikes Against Terror Infrastructure
Conduct multiple, deniable operations targeting camps, launchpads, and leadership nodes. These must be spaced out and unpredictable to create sustained psychological pressure. Additionally, cyber disruption capabilities should be developed to paralyze terrorist communication networks without drawing overt escalation.
Tighten visa restrictions, especially medical visas, hitting ordinary Pakistanis where it hurts most. Impose targeted sanctions on known ISI operatives and front organizations operating abroad.
International Isolation of Pakistan
Launch an aggressive diplomatic campaign post-attack, linking Pakistan’s support for terrorism with its destabilization of South Asia. Leverage G20, SCO, and bilateral channels. Use international financial institutions to tighten scrutiny on Pakistan’s funding networks.
Covert Support to Baloch and Sindhi Separatists
Increase “costs” for Pakistan internally by morally and materially supporting indigenous movements seeking autonomy. Escalate information warfare campaigns highlighting human rights abuses in Pakistan’s restive provinces.
Reassert Security in Kashmir
Re-establish a visible Army presence selectively in key areas without disrupting tourism.
Conduct focused intelligence sweeps to dismantle OGW networks. Aggressively use NIA, RAW, and Intelligence Bureau assets. Launch targeted development programs alongside security operations to win back local trust.
Long-Term National Strategy
In this context, a National Strategy Paper must be framed, based on which the military aim of war can be defined and the defense forces can be prepared to be the lethal sword arm with all the resources required to wage a modern-day war. The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel have underlined the necessity of strong supply chains, the resilience to endure death and destruction, and the readiness to absorb huge economic losses.
India must be cautious not to fall into the trap that Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir may be setting — a downward spiral into a kinetic war. Unlike Pakistan, whose majority population lives in abject poverty and can weather hardship without collapsing the regime, India’s economic heft is a vital national asset.
This does not imply that India should hesitate to sacrifice its citizens. This means India must pick its battles and ensure that when blood is shed, it achieves a clear political purpose, not just temporary satisfaction. India must simultaneously build redundancy into its economy, critical infrastructure, and energy supplies to ensure resilience during times of limited conflict.
Articulate a Clear National Security Doctrine
India must have a public, formal National Security Strategy (NSS) that outlines threats, responses, and objectives across military, diplomatic, and economic domains. This doctrine must clearly set red lines so adversaries and allies understand India’s tolerance limits.
Political-Military Coherence
Civil-military coordination must become institutional, not ad hoc. Regular National Security Council (NSC) meetings must direct and review operations. National leadership must maintain strategic messaging discipline during crises.
Strengthen Comprehensive Deterrence
Move beyond punitive strikes. Develop cyber, economic, diplomatic, and covert capabilities to impose cumulative costs on Pakistan without full-scale war. Invest in stand-off precision weaponry, and expand India’s submarine and missile forces to exert strategic pressure.
Deepen Local Governance in Kashmir
Empower elected governments. Security control must be robust but invisible. Local police and civil defense volunteers must be professionalized to detect and neutralize hybrid terror threats. Increase youth employment and entrepreneurship initiatives to undercut militant recruitment.
Promote Civilizational Unity
Defeat Pakistan’s communal narratives by strengthening inclusive Indian nationalism. Politically marginalize sectarian rhetoric. Amplify narratives of national integration through media, education, and cultural exchanges.
Military Modernisation
Increase defense spending to at least 2.5% of GDP, focus on Indigenous capabilities, drone warfare, and rapid mobilization doctrines, and streamline procurement and private sector involvement to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
Strategic Patience
Understand that weakening Pakistan’s military-terror nexus is a generational Project. It requires patient, consistent, and unrelenting pressure, not dramatic gestures. Strategic patience is not inaction; it is methodical pressure applied smartly.
Conclusion
The tragedy of Pahalgam demands a response. But more than action, it requires strategy.
India must punish Pakistan’s provocations not with reactive anger but with relentless, patient pressure. We must choose battles that serve our end state: an India that is secure, respected, and regionally dominant, not an India that is trapped in endless cycles of tit-for-tat violence.
Kashmiris have shown, after Pahalgam, that they reject Pakistan’s blood games. That unity must be nurtured. Trust must be built patiently with the people of the Valley while simultaneously rooting out the terror infrastructure.
India’s greatness will not come from reaction. It will come from resolve, strategy, and the quiet strength that outlasts enemies.
Let this be the moment when India stops reacting to Pakistan and starts rendering it irrelevant.