India must approach its role in the geopolitical arena with clear-eyed pragmatism given the complex interplay of global power dynamics. The spectacle of diplomatic summits and strategic alliances captivates the world, but the underlying currents that shape real power are often less glamorous and more fraught with challenges.
The Geopolitical Machine: Sustaining the Military-Industrial Complex
One cannot overlook the influence of the Military-Industrial Complex on global conflicts. This powerful nexus of defense contractors, political stakeholders, and military institutions ensures a cycle of sustained engagements that justify continued defense spending. The US exemplifies this structure with its State Department crafting foreign policy and the Pentagon executing these policies through its Theater Commands across various global regions.
For India, understanding this machinery is essential for two reasons. First, it highlights that behind every military alliance or confrontation lies an economic incentive that benefits influential power brokers. Second, it frames how partnerships with major powers such as the US can come with conditions tied to defense procurement and strategic concessions. India’s engagement with the US, particularly in defense partnerships, exemplifies this balance, where military cooperation must align with national interests without compromising autonomy.
Perception vs. Reality in Diplomatic Influence
There is a pervasive belief that nations participating in high-level diplomatic negotiations hold significant sway. However, in practice, the roles are often more nuanced and limited. Many such players act as facilitators rather than primary decision-makers, executing strategies defined by entrenched power structures and national interests.
India’s diplomatic engagements illustrate this dichotomy. While appearing at global summits and negotiating tables may project influence, real power stems from actions taken behind the scenes and on the ground. The effectiveness of such diplomacy relies heavily on a nation’s ability to back its words with substantive power—be it military, economic, or strategic. India’s pursuit of balanced policies, from financial ties to defense collaborations, showcases this pragmatic understanding of its role.
National Interests: The Driving Force of Major Powers
Major global players such as the US, China, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have well-established national interests that guide their policies. Military interventions defend these interests when deemed necessary. The US, for instance, does not hesitate to leverage its military might to secure energy routes, support allies, or counter threats to its hegemony. China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and along its borders similarly underscores the lengths it will go to safeguard its strategic objectives.
Despite its lack of aggression, India cannot overlook this reality. National interest is the cornerstone of any viable foreign policy, and India must be prepared to project power when vital interests are at stake. This calls for a strategic doctrine that combines diplomacy with readiness to use military force where necessary.
The Trade-Centric Approach and Diplomatic Balance
Over the past decade, India has emphasized trade as a critical component of its foreign policy. Active engagement in trade agreements, partnerships, and economic summits has marked this shift, securing access to markets and resources. Concurrently, India has leveraged defense technology procurements as tools to build and maintain strategic relationships with global powers.
The decision to source arms and technology from diverse partners is more than a means of military modernization; it is a calculated move to foster diplomatic goodwill. By purchasing defense equipment from Western allies and other partners, such as Russia, India ensures that its geopolitical relationships remain balanced. This strategy helps India navigate between competing global power blocs without becoming overly dependent on any one partner.
The BRICS Summit and Relations with China
India’s participation in BRICS, a grouping of emerging economies including Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa, highlights its commitment to multilateralism. However, recent developments within this framework have raised concerns. The opaque nature of agreements involving China, especially those related to military patrols along disputed borders, poses strategic challenges. Since 2020, India has witnessed Chinese intrusions in Ladakh, which Prime Minister Modi has not publicly acknowledged. People perceive this silence as an acceptance of face-saving agreements offered by China, potentially undermining India’s negotiating position.
These dynamics demonstrate that engagement in groups like BRICS is not without risks. Although it provides a platform for economic cooperation and a counterweight to Western-dominated institutions, we cannot ignore the challenges posed by China’s assertiveness. For India, maintaining its sovereignty and strategic autonomy requires vigilance and a readiness to pivot when necessary.
The US-India Strategic Relationship
Shared democratic values and a common strategic concern, China, form the foundation of the US-India relationship. Cooperation in defense, technology, and counterterrorism has marked this deepening partnership over the past two decades. However, the Indian Air Force’s dependency on US companies, particularly for the GE 404 and GE 414 engines that power indigenous aircraft, reveals a critical aspect of this relationship. Such dependencies can translate into strategic vulnerabilities that may be leveraged during geopolitical tension.
The ongoing Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) procurement process reflects this complex interplay. Strategic considerations, lobbying, and pressures to secure US interests influence the process as multiple global defense contractors vie for the lucrative deal. India must navigate these pressures carefully to ensure the best outcomes for its defense capabilities while maintaining strategic independence.
Realism in South Block Policy Circles
The policymakers in South Block, home to India’s Ministry of External Affairs, are acutely aware of the country’s geopolitical challenges. While there is value in fostering ties with nations that have influential Indian-origin leaders, assuming automatic support from such individuals can be misguided. Their primary allegiance often lies with their country of residence, which may not always align with India’s strategic interests.
This recognition shapes a more grounded approach to foreign policy that anticipates potential costs and seeks to balance benefits against realistic outcomes. Indian policymakers must also account for the unpredictability of international alliances, where shifting dynamics can alter longstanding relationships overnight.
The Choice Between BRICS and QUAD
A significant strategic question for India is whether to continue investing in the BRICS framework or pivot more decisively toward the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) alliance, which includes the US, Japan, and Australia. Internal contradictions and China’s dominance dilute the effectiveness of BRICS, which offers economic collaboration and a platform for asserting influence in the Global South. In contrast, the QUAD presents a more cohesive, albeit non-military, approach to counter China’s influence.
Long-standing caution has rooted India’s reluctance to commit troops for military interventions. This approach has avoided entanglement in costly conflicts but limits the country’s ability to act as a decisive regional leader. The nature of the QUAD as a security dialogue rather than a military alliance aligns with India’s preference for strategic engagement without over-commitment.
Economic Limitations and Strategic Ambitions
A significant constraint on India’s ability to exert global influence is its economic capacity. Unlike China, whose Belt and Road Initiative and substantial investments across Asia, Africa, and Latin America project its power, India lacks the financial muscle to compete at this scale. This disparity limits India’s ability to position itself as a leader within the Global South, where economic support translates directly into political influence.
Moreover, India’s strategic aspirations will remain constrained without significant military modernization and expansion. Comprehensive National Power, a measure that includes military strength, economic prowess, and diplomatic influence, must become a central focus if India seeks to move beyond rhetoric to achieve tangible outcomes on the global stage.
Military Power: Beyond Symbolic Gestures
While India regularly participates in military exercises and joint drills, these activities primarily serve as confidence-building measures rather than preparations for actual conflict. The last major conflict India engaged in was the 1971 war with Pakistan, which underscores the gap between military readiness and actual combat experience. For India to take on a more proactive role, it must address this gap by enhancing its military capabilities and willingness to project power when required.
Building Comprehensive National Power involves boosting defense budgets and integrating strategic thinking into every aspect of national policy. India’s potential to be a significant player hinges on its ability to translate strategic partnerships, defense procurements, and diplomatic initiatives into a cohesive, action-ready strategy.
Pragmatism in Global Power Struggles
In conclusion, India needs to understand that not everything is as it seems. The allure of ambitious foreign policy goals and prestigious alliances can be misleading without the necessary groundwork. The real power in the international arena comes from strategic partnerships, military readiness, and economic strength, tempered with a pragmatic approach to shifting global dynamics. By embracing realism and building comprehensive national capabilities, India can more effectively navigate the real-world power struggle and ensure that its place at the international table is not just symbolic but substantial.