President Donald Trump’s second term has intensified “America First” policies through massive visa revocations, tariff coercion, and bold military interventions like the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. These actions, including over 100,000 visa cancellations announced on January 12, 2026, signal a hardline stance on immigration, trade, and territorial ambitions targeting nations like Venezuela, Colombia, Iran, and Greenland.
As the US navigates domestic political challenges ahead of the 2026 midterms, these moves reshape global alliances, directly affecting India, China, and Russia by altering trade, security, and resource access, underscoring their shared stakes in this evolving landscape.
Domestic Drivers Fuelling US Assertiveness
Trump’s administration revoked over 100,000 visas in under a year, a 150% surge from 2024, focusing on overstays, DUIs, assaults, and thefts via tools like the Continuous Vetting Centre and social media screening. This crackdown, hitting 8,000 student visas and 2,500 specialised ones, prioritises “law and order” amid debates on illegal immigration, drug flows, and labour shortages for manual jobs. Political divides sharpen as blue states resist and some Republicans cross aisles on key Senate bills, while Trump warns of impeachment risks if Republicans falter in midterms.
These internal pressures amplify external aggression, from ICE expansions to tariff threats, buckling some economies while others resist. Venezuela’s “flash intervention” codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve captured Maduro for narcoterrorism charges, securing US oil access amid claims of reimbursing “stolen assets”. However, the government continues to operate under acting President Delcy Rodríguez.
Critics decry this as resource imperialism, contrasting US homelessness with promises of Venezuelan prosperity. The policy reflects a broader narrative in which domestic woes, such as visible street homelessness, undermine the superpower’s moral authority, even as it projects strength abroad through swift, technology-enabled operations.
Territorial Ambitions and Global Coercion
Trump’s rhetoric eyes Colombia for cocaine ties, Iran for protests, Greenland for security against Russian-Chinese presence, and beyond, reviving a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.
NATO allies face Oval Office berating and tariffs, and question the reliability of US “boots on the ground” despite US technological dominance. Commercial coercion via tariffs, some at 500% targets nations buying Russian oil, punishing evasion of sanctions.
This “shock and awe” overshadows China’s technological and energy advances, as Beijing controls rare earths despite the US scaling domestic production. Visa policies now vet political activism, like pro-Palestine views, sparking due process lawsuits. As focus tilts to family gains and wealth, these policies aim to hoard resources but risk alienating partners. The absence of large-scale ground troops underscores a shift toward precision strikes and proxies, leaving allies wary of committing to prolonged conflicts.
World Division into Spheres
The world fractures into wary blocs under US assertiveness, with North and South America increasingly falling under Washington’s domain through interventions such as in Venezuela and through tariff leverage over neighbours.
The world fractures into wary blocs under US assertiveness, with India and Russia strengthening BRICS/SCO ties, China expanding regional influence, and Europe seeking strategic autonomy, indicating a shift towards a more multipolar global order with lasting geopolitical implications.
Nations in these regions calibrate responses meticulously, fostering south-south cooperation to buffer against unilateral pressures. For instance, Middle Eastern states balance US security pacts with growing Chinese infrastructure investments, while Southeast Asian countries leverage US-China rivalry for favourable deals. This multipolar drift challenges the post-Cold War order, promoting resilience through the revival of non-alignment in modern form.
Venezuela Oil Setback Exposes Cracks
Breaking developments reveal the entire US oil industry rejecting Trump’s seizure of Venezuelan assets, leaving the president reportedly depressed and isolated in his own mess. American oil companies openly refuse to invest in Venezuela’s shattered energy sector until the regime guarantees no asset seizures or worker threats, with API chief Mike Sommers stating bluntly: “There are going to have to be these key prerequisites if investment is going to flow.” Industry leaders unite in demanding major structural reforms, deeming the country’s legal framework unreliable for protecting infrastructure or personnel.
Tensions escalated over the weekend when Trump suggested excluding ExxonMobil entirely after its CEO called Venezuela “uninvestible right now.” This split highlights hypocrisy in Trump’s orbit, attacking firms for stating realities while posing as responsible stewards.
The rebuff underscores the limits of authoritarian swagger masquerading as strategy, as even corporate giants recognise the risks of reckless intervention that threatens workers, investors, and global energy markets for apparent nought.
Impacts on India: Trade Strains and Diaspora Risks
India faces acute tariff hikes of up to 500% on discounted Russian oil purchased after the war in Ukraine, potentially adding $9- $ 11 billion to its import bill if shifted. State refiners such as IOC and Reliance have paused Russian cargoes to avoid secondary sanctions, straining the US-India strategic partnership amid QUAD ties. These measures, backed by bipartisan bills, escalate from prior 25-50% duties, hitting exports hard.
Immigration crackdowns threaten India’s 300,000+ students and H-1B holders; 8,000 student visa revocations signal a decline in enrolments, with social media scrutiny and activism complicating approvals. Indian professionals risk deportation over minor infractions like DUIs, disrupting remittances, and talent flows vital for India’s IT sector. Notably, U.S. rare-earth diversification could open markets for Indian minerals, but tariff wars overshadow this.
India’s Ministry of Home Affairs needs to take a cue and act on illegal immigrants and deport them to the countries with which it shares open borders. India has to bolster its border security as a priority.
Geopolitically, the US-Venezuela success demoralises Russia—India’s SCO/BRICS partner, potentially easing Ladakh tensions if Moscow weakens, but tariff coercion tests New Delhi’s energy security balancing act. India’s defence modernisation is accelerating, with indigenous programs such as Tejas and Agni gaining urgency to reduce import dependence amid volatile global supply chains. The Venezuelan oil debacle further validates India’s prudent diversification, shielding it from similar pitfalls of US overreach.
Impacts on China: Resource Wars Intensify
China’s rare-earth monopoly key to tech and defence faces U.S. acceleration, with domestic magnet capacity targeted online by 2029 via MP Materials and partnerships. Trump aides vow to “wipe away” Beijing’s weaponisation, despite the October 2025 truce; curbs on raw materials persist, hampering U.S. self-reliance. Fossil fuel dependence persists, but China’s energy harnessing outpaces US military bluster.
MP Materials operates as the United States’ primary producer of rare-earth materials, managing the Mountain Pass mine in California, the nation’s sole active rare-earth mining and processing site. The company focuses on Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) and related materials essential for high-strength magnets in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence systems, robotics, and aerospace applications. It follows a phased expansion: concentrate production (completed), refined rare earths (ongoing), and magnet/metals manufacturing (advancing via facilities like Fort Worth’s Independence site).
Key Partnerships
Strategic alliances bolster MP Materials’ efforts to onshore its supply chain and counter China’s dominance in rare earths.
– U.S. Department of Defence: Secured $400 million investment in 2025, making DoD the top shareholder, plus a 10-year NdPr price floor and offtake for the new 10X magnet facility.
– Apple: $500 million multiyear deal from July 2025 for recycled rare-earth magnets, enabling supply for devices starting 2027 with a $200 million prepayment.
– Sumitomo Corporation: 2023 supply agreement with the Japanese firm for NdPr products.
– Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden): November 2025 joint venture for a rare-earth refinery, with MP holding a 49% stake.
These partnerships emphasise domestic production ramp-up, sustainability through recycling, and global expansion while prioritising U.S. strategic needs.
Tariffs and sanctions echo the 2018-2020 trade wars, now linked to Russia-related issues, and are pressuring Beijing’s global supply chains. Venezuela’s oil access bolsters US energy, indirectly challenging China’s Latin American inroads—though the industry’s rejection now blunts this edge. As US vets “hostile” social media, Chinese students face barriers, mirroring broader tech decoupling. Beijing responds by doubling down on Belt and Road initiatives, securing African rare-earth alternatives, and deepening links with the Eurasian Economic Union.
For China, this accelerates self-sufficiency drives, but risks escalation in the South China Sea or Taiwan amid perceived US overreach. Advanced hypersonic and AI-integrated forces position China to counter US naval dominance, shifting power dynamics toward sustained rivalry rather than outright confrontation.
Impacts on Russia: Proxy Losses and Isolation Deepen
Venezuela’s raid killing 23 Venezuelan and 32 Cuban forces exposes Russian allies’ fragility, demoralising Moscow’s elite, per analysts. Putin faces worse in 2026 as US oil seizures and infrastructure threats cut revenues; Maduro’s capture for narcoterrorism echoes lengthy US indictments, yet the oil rejection spares Russia immediate energy losses.
India’s and China’s Russian oil purchases trigger U.S. secondary tariffs, forcing more costly shifts and further isolating Moscow. Trump’s push for Greenland counters Russian Arctic presence, while NATO tariff spats weaken the alliance’s cohesion, which Russia exploits. Polls on the war in Ukraine indicate shifting Russian opinion, amplified by the US “special operation” success in Caracas.
Russia may intensify hybrid threats, but resource constraints erode its leverage within BRICS and its capacity to counter U.S. dominance. Military exports to India remain a lifeline, yet Wagner-style proxies falter without Venezuelan footholds, prompting a pivot to cyber and disinformation campaigns targeting vulnerabilities in the US midterm elections. The Venezuelan debacle offers Moscow breathing room to rebuild influence.
Strategic Implications for Multipolar Order
US policies hoard resources amid China’s rare-earth dominance and Russia’s oil woes, but overreach invites pushback: India’s diversified partnerships, China’s technological edge, and Russia’s resilience. India gains from US-China friction via QUAD mineral pacts but must navigate tariffs diplomatically. China accelerates autonomy, potentially dominating green technology; Russia pursues asymmetric responses, including cyber and Arctic plays.
India, balancing US security ties with Russian energy/arms, faces tests in SCO/BRICS; prolonged US midterm fights could soften coercion. Globally, the absence of “boots” reliance signals tech-proxy wars, where India’s defence modernisation, amid QUAD, positions it centrally. As Trump eyes 2026 relevance, these dynamics are reshaping Indo-Pacific security, prompting calibrated hedging. Emerging forums such as expanded BRICS offer counterweights, fostering a world in which economic sovereignty trumps ideological blocs.
In the long term, this era may give rise to hybrid alliances, blending competition with pragmatic cooperation on climate and pandemics, as no hegemon can afford isolation in an interconnected age. Venezuela’s rejection of oil amplifies multipolarity, exposing unilateral limits and empowering patient strategists such as India, China, and Russia.