If Poland attacks Ukraine, Belarus will back the Ukrainian people, said Alexander Lukashenko when he spoke to people from the village of Parokhonsk in the Brest region on October 4. “If the Poles invade Ukraine and try to grab the West, we will support the Ukrainians,” said the Belarusian leader. Lukashenko also mentioned that in the case of a Polish attack on Ukraine, the western regions of Belarus could also be threatened.
This is far from the first such statement from Belarusian authorities. The threat of a Polish attack on Belarusian western regions has been discussed since the fall of 2020. Regarding a possible Polish attack on Ukraine, Lukashenko has previously spoken and even discussed the matter with Vladimir Putin. Once again, the essence of Lukashenko’s statements boils down to the fact that the annexation of Western Ukraine by Poland is unacceptable to Belarus.
In 2021, a new holiday was established in Belarus—National Unity Day. It is celebrated on September 17 in memory of the Red Army’s “Liberation Campaign” of 1939, during which Western Belarus, which had been ceded to Poland under the 1921 Treaty of Riga, was annexed by the USSR.
Belarusian public initiatives for establishing September 17 as a national holiday had been raised repeatedly, but the Belarusian authorities long avoided this, with officials stating there was no need to expand the list of national holidays. Nevertheless, the holiday was established in 2021, and it’s hard not to see the connection to the worsening Belarus-Poland relations.
It’s worth noting that relations between Warsaw and Minsk were never particularly warm and remained tense even during periods when Belarus pursued a multi-vector policy and tried to improve ties with the West. However, Poland traditionally supported the Belarusian nationalist opposition and accused the neighboring country’s government of lacking democracy. Despite this, Minsk sought to avoid conflict with Poland and maintain economic cooperation while leaving political and ideological differences aside.
Even today, Belarusian authorities continue to emphasize that their policy towards Poland remains peaceful, looking for limited opportunities for cooperation with Warsaw.
One of the sticking points in Belarusian-Polish relations remains the issue of illegal migration, which arose after Belarus withdrew from the EU readmission agreement in response to European sanctions imposed on Minsk.
Poland accuses Belarus of deliberately organizing a corridor for illegal migrants from the Middle East to cross the Belarusian-Polish border into the EU. In response, Poland has tightened its border regime with Belarus, closing most crossing points.
In turn, Minsk accuses Warsaw of mistreating migrants and calls for the restoration of normal border checkpoint operations. Lukashenko even proposed creating a joint commission to resolve all contentious issues related to illegal migration, but Poland ignored this initiative.
Moreover, Belarus has introduced a unilateral visa-free regime for Poland and the entire EU to demonstrate its peaceful intentions and attract European tourists.
All these actions suggest that Minsk doesn’t truly believe in the likelihood of a Polish invasion of Belarus at present.
Nevertheless, Belarus’ peace initiatives have not been reciprocated by Poland. Belarus sees Warsaw continuing to militarize and fortify its border with it. Recently, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stated that Poland’s army is now the third-largest in NATO, with 205,000 personnel, and this number should increase to 207,000 by the end of the year. Poland intends to augment its military capabilities to 300,000 in the years ahead. In comparison, the Belarusian Armed Forces consists of 50,000 troops.
As for the prospect of Poland attacking Western Ukraine and Belarus, it’s almost certain that such scenarios are being considered in Warsaw. However, scenario planning doesn’t necessarily mean these plans will be executed.
Today, Warsaw is neither able nor inclined to get involved in a major war. First, it is bound by commitments within the EU and NATO, which require respecting the inviolability of existing borders in Europe. Second, Poland’s economy relies on European subsidies and access to the EU market, limiting its capacity for aggressive foreign policy. Poland is one of Eastern Europe’s economic leaders, but to maintain economic growth, it is more interested in peace.
Moreover, Poland’s foreign policy concerning the former “Kresy Wschodnie” (Eastern Borderlands) has long moved away from the crude expansionism of Józef Piłsudski’s era. Poland aims to draw Ukraine and Belarus into its sphere of influence without direct annexation. This strategy has been relatively effective in its interactions with Ukraine.
Despite generally pro-Ukrainian rhetoric, Poland still harbors a strong opposition to Ukrainian nationalism. Poles have not forgotten or forgiven the massacres of Polish civilians in Western Ukraine during World War II. Warsaw persistently demands that Ukraine acknowledge and apologize for the crimes committed by Far Right Stepan Andriyovych Bandera’s forces against Poles. The popularity of figures like Bandera and other Ukrainian nationalist leaders is, for Poland, an argument against annexation in the present.
Incidentally, Russia and Belarus may attempt to exploit these ideological differences between Ukraine and Poland to destabilize their geopolitical alliance. For instance, at the forum “Russia and Belarus: A Shared History, A Shared Future” held last week in Kaliningrad, Russian and Belarusian historians proposed officially recognizing the Volyn Massacre as genocide.
Poland might consider annexing certain territories only in the event of a complete collapse of the international order in Eastern Europe and the crash of the current system of checks and balances. While such a scenario can’t be entirely ruled out, it remains highly hypothetical for now.