The stakes in the Ukraine conflict rise as the presidential election in the United States approaches. It appears that the Biden administration is deliberately delaying the authorization for the full use of American weapons in Ukraine’s war against Russia, aiming to inflict maximum damage on Russia just before the election in October. This is done to justify the multibillion-dollar American expenses on this war and to gain points for current Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.
Impatient Ukraine
Ukraine is becoming increasingly frustrated with the restrictions imposed on the use of American-supplied weapons against Russian targets.
On August 26 and 27, 2024, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak headed a delegation to Washington in a new effort to reverse this approach. According to reports in the US media, the Ukrainian group requested permission to deploy American missiles at a number of strategically critical sites.
Their purpose is a direct response to the Pentagon’s and national security authorities’ shifting arguments for why the limits must remain in place, while other claimed red lines have become indistinguishable.
Evolving Excuses
For instance, in May 2024, experts advised Ukraine to target Russian troop concentrations across the border as they prepared to attack Kharkiv. HIMARS missile batteries, deployed against Russian soldiers tasked with repelling the invasion, helped Ukrainians reach Kursk a month ago. Washington made no complaints.
Previously, the argument for barring Ukraine from using American weapons against Russian targets was that it could generate an escalatory response from the Kremlin, causing much greater devastation to Ukraine and potentially leading Russia to turn to nuclear weapons.
In recent months, numerous new arguments to restrict Ukraine have emerged. According to unnamed individuals, the Biden administration does not want to risk a “reset” of relations with Moscow in the future. Other authorities say that permitting Ukraine to utilize ATACMS, a longer-range system than HIMARS, against Russian targets would have no strategic impact because there aren’t enough targets within range. Russia has moved most of the planes required to deliver heavy glide bombs to airfields located beyond the ATACMS missile’s 300-kilometer range, a valuable resource that would be more effective against targets in Crimea.
The Biden administration recently prohibited the UK and France from allowing Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow/Scalp weapons they provided outside of Ukrainian territory. This was conceivable, given that the cruise missile has certain American components.
Former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, defines it as “a continual creation of reasons that are both deceptive and false.” For example, it is unclear why the small quantity of ATACMS should be a disincentive. A detailed assessment from Ukrainian consulting firm Defence Express suggests that America likely possesses at least 2,500 missiles, initially deployed more than 30 years ago.
The notion that there aren’t enough worthy targets also presents challenges. According to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian military targets deep inside Russia are critical to reducing Russia’s military capability across the entire theater of operations, and lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-supplied weapons would allow Ukrainian forces to strike a wide range of important targets, undermining Russia’s military efforts.
The Institute estimates that there are approximately 250 military ‘facilities’ within the ATACMS range, with just 17 of them being airfields from which planes could have launched. Many of these are significant military sites, communication stations, logistics hubs, fuel depots, and ammunition storage that would be difficult to shift without jeopardizing Russia’s military efforts.
General Hodges, who is still a top NATO logistics advisor, said there are no moral or legal grounds not to pursue these targets. He claims that Biden gets the majority of his advice from Obama administration officials who have repeatedly been wrong regarding Russia. If Biden doesn’t change his views, his legacy will be tainted, the general opines.
Fading Chances
Zelensky will soon have one final chance to persuade Biden to take a new approach before he leaves office. This will happen next week when they convene in New York for the annual session of the United Nations General Assembly.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians demonstrate that they are capable of developing alternatives to Western institutions. Their more advanced long-range drones often strike targets deep inside Russia. They targeted oil storage facilities in the Rostov and Kirov regions, up to 1,200 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, on August 28, 2024. On September 1, 2024, one of Ukraine’s largest drone attacks of the war hit an oil facility near Moscow.
Self Help
Ukraine is building more lethal weapons. Zelensky just declared the successful testing of Ukraine’s first ballistic missile. Fabian Hinz, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank, believes this is a development of the Hrim-2 missile. It has been in sporadic development for about a decade, with some sponsorship from Saudi Arabia. He feels it is not surprising that Ukraine possesses the technical expertise and industrial know-how to manufacture effective missiles. The country was once the epicenter of Soviet strategic and cruise missile programs. The Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missile and its land-attack variant demonstrated the country’s capabilities.
Ben Barry, a ground warfare specialist at IISS, cautions that despite Ukraine’s ongoing ‘deep battle’ against multiple Russian targets, it may face challenges in scaling up the manufacturing of its long-range systems. However, Barry believes that by demonstrating their capabilities, Ukrainians underline the importance of using ATACMS and Storm Shadow/Scalp against such targets.