China’s rising influence in the Indian subcontinent has significantly impacted India’s security calculus, as Beijing actively engages with India’s neighboring countries through economic investments, political alliances, and military cooperation. This expanding Chinese presence threatens to undermine India’s traditional South Asian influence and challenges its strategic autonomy. Each South Asian nation, from Nepal to Sri Lanka, has become a critical piece in China’s broader geopolitical strategy, involving substantial infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and enhancing military ties. The implications are profound. China’s moves encircle India with allies and infrastructure that could shift regional power balances, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the United States’ strategic interests in the region—driven by its rivalry with China—further complicate the geopolitical landscape. The dual influence of China and the US has heightened the region’s importance in global power dynamics, underscoring the strategic significance of areas like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which India can leverage for defense and deterrence.
China’s encirclement strategy has profound security implications for India. China’s strategically placed assets and allies surrounding India’s borders and maritime routes present risks to India’s economic and military autonomy in the region, particularly in the Indian Ocean. In response, India is enhancing its military capabilities, investing in critical outposts like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. These islands allow India to monitor the Malacca Strait—a chokepoint through which nearly 80% of China’s energy imports pass—and potentially disrupt Chinese trade routes in the event of conflict, thereby providing India with a unique strategic advantage.
Geopolitical, economic, and strategic overview
China has significantly increased its South Asian presence to challenge India’s traditional influence and advance its strategic goals. Through economic aid, infrastructure projects, military cooperation, and political engagements, China seeks to secure a foothold in the Indian subcontinent. This expansion severely impacts India’s security as China strengthens its presence around India’s borders and along critical sea lines of communication (SLOCs).
Nepal
Geo-Political Interests
China views Nepal as a buffer state against India and seeks to reduce Indian influence through economic ties and political alliances.
It aims to create friction between Kathmandu and New Delhi by promoting anti-India sentiments.
Geo-Economic Interests
Under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has invested USD 500 million in infrastructure projects, including roads, hydropower, and railways. The initiative aims to integrate Nepal into China’s economy and reduce its dependence on India.
Developing cross-border trade routes with Nepal aligns with China’s goal to increase trade and connectivity in South Asia.
Geostrategic Interests
China’s cooperation with Nepal includes military aid and joint exercises, enhancing Chinese influence on India’s northern border.
China also works closely with Nepal to suppress Tibetan refugee activities, limiting India’s soft power influence in the region.
Bhutan
Geo-Political Interests
Bhutan’s strategic position near the Indian border caught Chinese attention, mainly through border disputes like the Doklam standoff in 2017.
China seeks to weaken Bhutan’s reliance on India and draw it into China’s orbit, challenging India’s diplomatic influence.
Geo-Economic Interests
Although Bhutan remains resistant to joining the BRI, China has pursued economic diplomacy through trade talks and infrastructure proposals to loosen Bhutan’s dependence on India.
Geostrategic Interests
The Doklam region is of significant geostrategic value to China as it overlooks the Siliguri Corridor, a vital area for India’s military logistics connecting its northeastern states.
Any Chinese military presence in Bhutanese territory could threaten India’s northeastern security.
Myanmar
Geo-Political Interests
China views Myanmar as a crucial part of its strategy to access the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Malacca Strait, and reduce its energy vulnerability.
By supporting Myanmar’s military junta, China ensures stability and access to critical infrastructure projects, disregarding India’s interests in the region.
Geo-Economic Interests
China has invested over USD 6 billion in the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), constructing pipelines, special economic zones, and ports that connect China directly to the Indian Ocean.
China’s access to Myanmar’s energy resources undermines India’s attempts to deepen its energy ties.
Geo-Strategic Interests
China‘s growing military ties with Myanmar, including arms sales and joint military exercises, raise concerns for India’s northeastern security, as Myanmar shares a long and sensitive border with India.
The development of Kyaukpyu Port could eventually serve dual civilian and military purposes, enhancing China’s maritime reach into the Bay of Bengal and threatening India’s maritime security.
Bangladesh
Geo-Political Interests
China has deepened its ties with Bangladesh, seeking to limit India’s traditional influence. China aims to diminish India’s economic and diplomatic dominance by positioning itself as Bangladesh’s largest trading partner.
Geo-Economic Interests
China has committed over USD 24 billion in loans and development projects in Bangladesh, such as power plants, railways, and roads, to maintain Bangladesh’s economic integration.
These investments aim to create long-term economic dependencies on China, undermining India’s strategic influence.
Geo-Strategic Interests
China’s sale of military equipment and defense cooperation, including joint exercises, has strengthened Bangladesh’s military capabilities, which could influence the strategic balance along India’s eastern borders.
China’s involvement in infrastructure projects like the Chittagong Port raises concerns about potential future militarization.
Sri Lanka
Geo-Political Interests
Sri Lanka’s strategic location near the vital Indian Ocean shipping lanes makes it a key player in China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, which aims to surround India with a network of Chinese-friendly states.
China challenges India’s historical influence by offering political and financial support to Sri Lanka.
Geo-Economic Interests
China‘s investments in Sri Lanka total USD 8 billion, focusing on infrastructure projects like the Hambantota Port and the Colombo International Financial City.
Sri Lanka’s heavy debt burden has led to a 99-year lease of the Hambantota Port to China, raising concerns about Chinese control over critical maritime infrastructure.
Geo-Strategic Interests
China‘s potential military use of Sri Lankan ports, particularly Hambantota, directly challenges India’s maritime security.
Chinese naval visits to Sri Lankan ports have raised alarms in New Delhi about Chinese intentions in the Indian Ocean.
Maldives
Geopolitical Interests
The Maldive’s location along key Indian Ocean shipping lanes makes it a vital player in China’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy, aiming to counterbalance India’s maritime influence.
China has politically supported pro-China governments in the Maldives, reducing India’s diplomatic leverage.
Geo-Economic Interests
China has invested over USD 1.5 billion in infrastructure projects such as the Malé-Hulhulé bridge and housing developments, increasing Maldivian debt to China and raising concerns about potential debt diplomacy.
Geo-Strategic Interests
Chinese investments in the Maldives, particularly in ports and infrastructure, could militarize these assets, posing a significant threat to India’s naval dominance in the Indian Ocean.
The Maldives’ proximity to key Indian naval bases enhances its strategic importance for China and India.
Strategic Importance of Andaman and Nicobar Islands for India
Geo-Political Importance
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands provide India with a key strategic outpost to monitor the Malacca Strait, where 80% of China’s energy imports pass.
India can use these islands to project power into the Indian Ocean and counter Chinese influence in the region, which is significant as China increases its presence in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Maldives.
Geo-Strategic Leverage Against China
India could choke China’s access to critical SLOCs in case of conflict by using the Andaman and Nicobar Islands to disrupt China’s energy and trade flows.
India has invested in modernizing its military capabilities on the islands, including naval air stations, radar networks, and missile systems, which enhance its ability to monitor Chinese naval activities.
Geopolitics Rivalry and Security Implications
The Indian subcontinent is becoming a focal point of geopolitical rivalry between China and the US, with significant implications for India’s security. China’s approach includes leveraging economic investments, political alliances, and military cooperation to cultivate influence around India. In response, the US promotes democratic governance, financial aid, and military partnerships with critical South Asian countries to counterbalance China. The presence of both superpowers has intensified regional complexities, and India’s strategic response will be essential to secure its interests and maintain stability across South Asia.
In an era of heightened geopolitical tensions, India’s approach—strengthening alliances, enhancing regional influence, and securing critical outposts like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands—will be pivotal for its security and maintaining a stable power balance in the Indo-Pacific region.
Conclusion
China’s deepening presence in the Indian subcontinent presents an unprecedented security challenge for India, exacerbated by the U.S.-China rivalry. Through economic investment, political engagement, and military influence, China is actively shaping South Asia’s geopolitical landscape to serve its strategic interests, notably to secure its sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and counter India’s regional dominance. For India, maintaining security and influence in its neighborhood necessitates a multi-dimensional approach, leveraging alliances, economic cooperation, and robust defense capabilities, particularly in strategic locations like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. These islands allow India to monitor and potentially control one of China’s most critical maritime chokepoints, the Malacca Strait. As the Indian subcontinent emerges as a focal point of Sino-American rivalry, India’s strategic maneuvering will be essential for regional stability and maintaining its security and influence in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.