A new round of tariff confrontation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China has been started as a result of the U.S. effort to exert pressure on its trading partners and compel them to restrict their cooperation with China through tariff negotiations. Beijing issued a warning that it would implement measures against nations that cooperate with the United States in a manner that is detrimental to China’s interests.
Against this backdrop, indications have surfaced that the Trump administration has been compelled to compromise its stance on punitive tariffs on Chinese imports as a result of China’s resolute posture in response to U.S. tariff pressure.
China Strikes Back! 125% Tariff
China has implemented a 125% tariff on imports of American products in response to U.S. tariffs. Beijing has also restricted the export of critical minerals and blacklisted several U.S. companies, primarily lesser ones, thereby restricting their ability to conduct business with Chinese firms.
The ongoing trade war is beginning to significantly impact the trade turnover between the United States and China. For instance, the number of container ships that are directed to Los Angeles and Long Beach, which are significant West Coast ports that handle products from China and other Asian countries, has experienced a significant decline.
Twelve vessels from China are expected to arrive this week, compared to twenty-two the previous week. The number of ships scheduled to arrive between May 4 and 4–10 has decreased by 44% compared to last year.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a strong statement on April 21, criticizing Washington’s actions and warning of retaliatory measures against those nations that give in to the Trump administration’s unlawful demands, in response to the U.S.’s brazen demands that other countries limit trade with China.
China will implement decisive and reciprocal measures in the event that such an occurrence occurs, the ministry warned. It spoke of the dangers to all countries if global trade returns to the “law of the jungle,” asserting that China is determined and capable of defending its rights and interests.
China attempts to show that it maintains a principled stance. Peace will not be achieved through appeasement, and respect will not be earned through compromise. Making a pact with a tiger for its hide is analogous to pursuing short-term gains at the expense of others’ interests in exchange for “exceptions,” which ultimately harms all parties involved.
Notable Chinese experts, such as Justin Yifu Lin, endorse Beijing’s unwavering commitment to “not yield” in the trade conflict. According to the former chief economist of the World Bank and Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, any nation that attempts to negotiate a deal with the Trump administration in response to U.S. tariff threats will only serve to embolden Washington to impose even more stringent conditions.
Trump’s Tariff Tactics Backfire
This notion that Trump’s aggressive, “trademark” dealmaking style is failing in the face of strong resistance has been further substantiated by indications that the United States is preparing to negotiate a deal with China.
The U.S. President recently indicated that he may reduce import tariffs on Chinese products, stating that “145% is an excessive amount.” It won’t be that much, not nearly that much… It will be significantly reduced, but not to zero.”
Treasury Secretary S. Buchanan, during a closed-door meeting of financial and business leaders in Washington on April 22, indicated that he anticipates a “de-escalation” of the trade war between the U.S. and China and that progress in relations with Beijing is inevitable. The statement was a sign of Trump’s potential softening.
China observed this “apparent softening of tone from the U.S.,” according to Bao Jiangyun, a professor of international politics at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China. This suggests that the actual results of the U.S. tariff policy have fallen significantly short of its original objectives. The expert cautions that the change is merely a technical adjustment to the strategy in light of the new global trade trends, and the U.S. objective of containing and suppressing China remains unaltered.
A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed Beijing’s stance on April 23 in response to Washington’s signs of softening. The spokesperson stated that if the U.S. is truly interested in resolving issues through dialogue and negotiations, it must cease engaging in threatening and blackmailing behavior and instead engage in dialogue with China based on mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit.
Despite the trade challenges imposed by the United States, China maintains a composed exterior. Chinese economists underscore that the American economy comprises only 15% of global commerce. They encourage other nations to establish closer, mutually advantageous relationships to isolate the United States.
Beijing Warns: Side With the U.S. and Face the Consequences!
The first of Washington’s two-pronged pressure strategies on China—punitive tariffs on Chinese imports and compelling other countries to reduce economic cooperation with China, particularly through increased tariffs on Chinese goods—seems to be failing, while the results of the second are still unresolved.
China’s principal trading partners are either refraining from increasing tariffs on Chinese goods and instead engaging in active negotiations with the United States, or they are increasing them only barely, which has no substantial impact on the reduction of Chinese exports.
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves articulated the position of the first set of countries, asserting that China is the world’s second-largest economy, and he believes it would be extremely foolish not to engage with it. “That is the approach of this government.”
India Caught in the Middle: Tariff Tug-of-War
The second group of countries is attempting to balance the advantages of unrestricted cooperation with China with the necessity of adhering to U.S. demands. On April 21, India imposed a temporary 12% tariff on imports of specific varieties of steel for a period of 200 days to reduce the surge in supplies, primarily from China. This case is a prime example.
Any batch priced below $675 per ton will be subject to this duty, which does not apply to developing countries, except for China and Vietnam.
China, South Korea, and Japan were the top three steel suppliers to India in 2024, contributing 26.88%, 26.89%, and 18.02% of imports, respectively.
It is evident that India is attempting to preserve a fragile equilibrium: on the one hand, it is attempting to increase trade with China; on the other, it is using tariffs to appease Washington and lessen U.S. tariffs on Indian imports.
It is worth noting that India adopted this measure during the visit of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. Delhi’s objective was to avert increased U.S. tariffs and establish a bilateral trade agreement with Washington.
Xi’s Southeast Asia Tour Sends Strong Signal
China has expanded its trade with Southeast Asia, which has now become its largest trading partner in the region since Trump first imposed tariffs on Chinese imports during his first presidential term. This expansion has served as insurance against the potential volatility of U.S. relations.
In this context, President Xi Jinping’s extensive tour (April 14–18) to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia is noteworthy, as it was influenced by the U.S. tariff conflict against China and its key regional trading partners. Among other topics, the discussions centered on collaborative endeavors to ensure the resilience of regional supply chains, the defense of a multilateral trade system based on value chains, and regional labor division.
Based on the optimistic tone of official Beijing reports and the friendly, informal ambiance of Xi’s meetings with the leaders of the three countries, it appears that the tour’s primary objectives were successfully accomplished.
It is important to mention that Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, whose country will serve as the chair of ASEAN in 2025, has pledged that the Association will not endorse unilateral tariffs. Additionally, he has stated that Malaysia is prepared to enhance its collaboration with China to collaboratively confront risks and obstacles.