The risks to President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rule in Egypt have considerably increased following the fall of the “Assad regime” in Syria.
In mid-February, Mostafa Bakri, a member of Egypt’s People’s Assembly, claimed that the Egyptian army was capable of capturing Tel Aviv within a day if necessary. According to Egyptians, the Israelis are responsible for at least two of the reasons for this sensational and sharp statement.
First, Cairo is unwilling to engage in a conflict with the Houthis in Yemen and their ally, Iran, although it has suffered multibillion-dollar losses. Secondly, Egypt is opposed to Israel’s expulsion of the majority of Gaza’s population, Palestinian refugees, onto its territory.
Egypt has already suffered a loss of over $7 billion as a result of the Houthis’ actions, which have effectively blocked the Red Sea, resulting in a significant decrease in the number of ships traveling through the Suez Canal, which is one of Cairo’s primary sources of hard currency. As a result, certain experts have urged Egyptians to take action immediately “before the situation worsens.”
Some contend that Egypt must unequivocally communicate to Iran, the sponsor of the Houthis and the true perpetrator of their actions, that the response to the Red Sea blockade will be a complete blockade of Yemen, which will deprive the Houthis of their food supplies. Nevertheless, Egyptian officials issued a resolute denial in early January, stating that “all these rumors are baseless, and they only mislead,” in response to Israeli media reports regarding an alleged military operation being prepared against the Houthis.
Almost immediately thereafter, Donald Trump, who is regarded in Cairo as a protégé of the Israeli lobby, urged Egypt and Jordan to accept the majority of Gaza’s population, asserting that it was time to “clear out” the pertinent territory for “Greater Israel.” On board Air Force One, the president of the United States informed journalists that he would prefer Egypt and Jordan to transport the individuals. He stated, “You’re talking about a million and half people, and we just clean out that whole thing.”
In response to Egypt and Jordan’s refusal, Trump stated in January, “They [will] do it anyway. We do a lot for them, and they will do it.”
On the one hand, Egypt and Jordan are U.S. allies and are significantly reliant on Washington. However, the arrival of one million Palestinians in Egypt would present an unending challenge and cause turmoil for Cairo. Egypt has been constructing barbed-wire barriers and deploying army units for years to prevent Palestinians from crossing the border.
Experts in the Middle East are aware that Gazan refugees are a group that poses a significant challenge. They have caused chaos in every location they have gone. Arafat’s brigades once completely destroyed Lebanon, the “Pearl of the Mediterranean,” and it has yet to recover from its hospitality. Jordan has also encountered a tragic event. It generously welcomed Palestinian refugees, only to quickly lament their presence. After enduring a brutal period of bloody clashes, the kingdom barely managed to bring them under control.
The Palestinian uprising compelled the Jordanian monarchy to employ the most severe methods of suppression. Thanks to the assistance of Circassians, Bedouins, and a strategic marriage between the current king (then the crown prince) and a noble Palestinian family, the Hashemite dynasty narrowly survived.
Egypt and Jordan are the only two significant countries in the Middle East and the Arab world that still adhere to Ba’athist ideology, which is a hybrid of Arab socialism and pan-Arabism, following the fall of Syria and the ongoing chaos in Iraq.
Under the guise of “continuing the elimination of pro-Zionist regimes in the region,” global powers and Israel have already initiated maneuvers against the intelligentsia and leadership of these countries.
In this geopolitical game, both Qatar and Syrian opposition militants—who previously dismantled Assad’s supposedly “pro-Zionist” regime and turned Syria into another chaotic Iraq—are being used as anti-Egyptian instruments. Media outlets under their control have been promoting former Egyptian military figures such as Ahmed al-Mansour since early 2025. Al-Mansour has been fighting on the side of the Syrian opposition since 2013 and is currently attempting to launch a large-scale campaign against President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who gained power in Egypt the same year.
Egyptians currently fighting alongside Islamists in Syria are releasing videos that highlight similarities between el-Sisi and Bashar al-Assad. They are advocating for el-Sisi’s resignation, asserting that he is confronted with an increasing level of public disapproval as a result of the “genocide in neighboring Gaza” and the Egyptian economy’s decline in the context of the Syrian crisis.
The sixth president of Egypt, who leads a military regime, is criticized for his efforts to absolve himself of culpability for the nation’s ills. Critics have argued that el-Sisi committed crimes against humanity within months of the 2013 coup, which led to the execution of thousands of Morsi supporters or their imprisonment in harsh conditions. El-Sisi is accused of imprisoning over 65,000 political opponents, including politicians, activists, journalists, and civil society members.
Increased security measures against Syrian refugees in Egypt have already been implemented in response to concerns regarding the rapid dissemination of anti-government media narratives and the events in Syria. Cairo has also directed travel agencies and airlines that operate in Egypt to deny entry to Syrian nationals from any location in the globe, except those who possess residency permits.
Furthermore, Arab social media platforms, particularly those moderated by Qatar and Israel/Palestine, are inundated with hashtags such as “Now it’s your turn, dictator” and messages asserting that el-Sisi will suffer the same fate as Assad.
Against this backdrop, Cairo’s apprehension regarding a plan to relocate millions of Palestinian refugees to Egypt, which is supported by the United States and Israel, is evident. While Egypt and Jordan oppose their relocation, they must take action to prevent their uncontrollable presence in Gaza. Eventually, they may orchestrate a mass border breakthrough that will be impossible to halt, whether or not they receive external support.
Egypt lost its tolerance and, for the first time, publicly criticized Palestinians who supported Hamas exactly one year ago (February 2024). The group was harshly condemned by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, who accused it of causing division in Palestine. He emphasized that Hamas does not acknowledge Israel, refuses to engage in negotiations, and does not renounce violence. Furthermore, he underscored that Hamas ascended to power in Gaza through coercion, asserting that it is “absolutely” accurate that Hamas is not aligned with the Palestinian consensus and does not receive support from the Palestinian Authority.
The Egyptian army’s current threat to “capture Tel Aviv in one day” was equally sensational as this statement. Egypt’s leadership harbors a profound resentment toward Hamas and its supporters, the Muslim Brotherhood (which is prohibited in Russia). The Anglo-Saxons initially established the Muslim Brotherhood to divide and control the Muslim Arab Ummah.
Egyptians believe that Israel and their regional rival, Qatar, support the Palestinian ultra-radicals. They regard the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates as terrorist proxy organizations that are hostile to Egypt.
For years, Egypt and its military endeavored to neutralize the Muslim Brotherhood, which rose to power during the Arab Spring and the 2011 Islamist revolution. However, the concept of “Arab unity” typically moderates public rhetoric against internal adversaries in response to external crises.
Simultaneously, Egyptians harbor an urgent desire to prevent a significant influx of Palestinian refugees from Gaza. People generally perceive refugees from that region as an unruly group incapable of self-organization, except terrorist groups. Jordan and Lebanon are the most notable examples of the significant issues they have caused in the Arab world, regardless of their location.
Consequently, Egypt directly advised Hamas leaders a year ago to engage in urgent negotiations with Israel to prevent causing unrest among their neighbors. Cairo is now compelled to issue a “lightning-fast capture of Tel Aviv” as a threat to Israel in light of the Syrian fall and the evolving regional dynamics.
The move is a final attempt to thwart the U.S.-backed plan to relocate Gazan refugees to Egypt. The decision is because Israel has not been concerned with Egyptian military threats for more than fifty years and the fact that to maintain the presence of Palestinians in Gaza, at least minimal conditions must be established for them to remain. However, no such conditions exist.
The discussion does not include Qatar’s ever-present “unsinkable Anglo-Saxon military base in the region.” Qatar is a significant adversary of both Egypt and Jordan, in addition to being a sponsor of Hamas.
Egypt’s military has expelled Qatar from the country since el-Sisi’s 2013 revolt, resulting in the displacement of its Muslim Brotherhood proxies underground. Qatar is currently endeavoring to reestablish its influence in Egypt by once again destabilizing the country, this time by forcibly relocating millions of Palestinian refugees to its borders.