In a historic move not seen since the end of World War II, Germany and the United Kingdom have signed a comprehensive new bilateral defence pact. Known as the Kensington Treaty, this agreement not only commits the two nations to mutual military assistance in the event of an attack but also outlines future collaboration in weapons development, defence integration, and industrial partnerships. This pact carries significant strategic implications that demand the attention of Indian policymakers.
What began as a response to Russian aggression in Ukraine is quickly evolving into something much larger: a re-evaluation of Europe’s defence identity. For India, this is more than distant diplomacy; it signals shifting global power structures and emerging opportunities and risks in a volatile new security landscape.
What the Kensington Treaty Includes
Signed in London, the treaty formalises 17 joint projects between the U.K. and Germany, with a few key highlights: –
- Mutual defence commitment, similar to NATO’s Article 5, pledging military support if either nation is attacked.
- The creation of a precision strike missile system with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers carries significant strategic consequences.
- Coordinated efforts to address submarine threats in the Northern Seas.
- Cooperation on uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) doctrine and development.
- A push to remove red tape from arms exports, particularly targeting key platforms like the submarines.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have hinted that Ukraine will soon receive long-range weapons.
Russia responded swiftly, threatening to retaliate against Western European military facilities if these weapons were used against Russian territory.
Why India Needs to Pay Attention
At first glance, a European defence pact may not seem relevant to South Asia. However, the implications for India are significant and promising, both economically and diplomatically, as well as militarily. This new landscape presents India with a range of opportunities that it can proactively seize.
A New Arms Race in Long-Range Strike Capabilities
The centerpiece of the Kensington Treaty, a 2,000+ km precision strike missile, is a bold move. For Europe, it’s about deterrence. For the world, it sets a precedent: long-range offensive capabilities are no longer reserved for superpowers.
India has its strategic missile programs, including the Agni series and BrahMos. But this new development: –
- Erodes global restraint norms around long-range precision weapons.
- Could spark copycat developments across regions, especially in Asia.
- Might open up new partnerships or competition for India, depending on who controls the tech.
If export controls loosen, mainly from Germany, India could find opportunities to acquire or co-develop next-generation strike capabilities more quickly and with fewer hurdles.
Germany’s Export Shift: A Potential Windfall for India
Germany has long enforced strict arms export regulations, especially toward conflict zones or authoritarian regimes. This has made it more difficult for India to purchase specific systems or co-develop technology. The Kensington Treaty aims to simplify export policies, particularly for platforms developed jointly with other countries (like the U.K., France, or even India). For New Delhi, this could: –
- Unlock access to more advanced European systems.
- Create momentum for Make in India partnerships in aerospace, defence electronics, and autonomous systems.
- Ease stalled negotiations, like those involving submarine technologies.
India has the industrial base, a skilled workforce, and a strategic incentive to become a preferred partner for Europe’s emerging defence-industrial bloc.
The Emergence of the E3: A Strategic Counterweight
The UK, Germany, and France, often referred to as the “E3” are advancing toward closer military cooperation. First came the U.K.-France agreement, followed by the Treaty of Kensington. These arrangements: –
- Enhance Europe’s strategic independence from the U.S.
- Signal a long-term shift toward a unified European military force, beyond just NATO security.
- Lay the groundwork for a potential European nuclear umbrella, a concept once considered impossible outside the Cold War.
For India, this presents an opportunity to adjust its approach. While traditionally aligned with France in defence and diplomacy, India can now consider a broader E3+India framework, particularly for Indo-Pacific cooperation, maritime security, and defence innovation.
Security Risks: The Fallout of Proxy Escalation
The more Europe supplies Ukraine with long-range missiles, the more likely Russia is to retaliate — not just in Ukraine but potentially within Europe itself. Russia’s threat to target weapons factories or logistical hubs outside Ukrainian borders should not be underestimated. India must learn from this: in today’s global conflict environment, arms suppliers are also targets. If a similar escalation occurs in Asia — for example, over Taiwan or the South China Sea — India could face strained defence partnerships or even become a target for such tensions. This reality requires India to: –
- Strengthen its domestic defence infrastructure against possible cyber, kinetic, or covert attacks.
- Rethink supply chain security for sensitive systems.
- Prepare for grey-zone warfare tactics against its allies and suppliers.
A Multipolar World, Accelerated
India has long advocated for a multipolar global order. The Kensington Pact, in effect, is a multipolar defence strategy, with Europe taking its security into its own hands. For India, this is validating; it highlights that middle powers can and must act independently to influence global outcomes. It also paves the way for increased triangular dialogues between India and European defence entities, cooperation in new areas, including the Arctic (submarine security) and Africa (peacekeeping, counterterrorism), and greater influence in international forums as part of a coalition of responsible, autonomous powers.
What Should India Do Now? The time to act is now. The changing European defence landscape demands a swift and decisive response from India.
Seize the export opportunity. With Germany relaxing its export policies and Europe aiming to boost joint production, India must act swiftly and decisively to position itself as a hub for co-production, not just a customer. The time to act is now.
Engage the E3 Proactively
India should not wait for Europe to initiate contact. Instead, it should take the lead in proposing strategic defence dialogues with the E3, including areas like AI in warfare, space defence, and cyber resilience.
Prepare for Strategic Ambiguity
India must consider the implications of escalating tensions between Russia and Europe, or if NATO becomes more fragmented. Contingency planning, both diplomatically and militarily, is essential.
Balance Ties Without Hesitation
India’s balanced approach between the West and Russia has been practical so far. However, as the West adopts a more assertive stance and Moscow behaves more unpredictably, India must be prepared to rebalance when clarity is necessary.
Conclusion: Watching from the Sidelines Is Not an Option
The Kensington Treaty is not just another agreement; it signals that the global order is changing in real time. As Europe militarises more urgently and independently, the ripple effects will be felt across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. India has the strategic significance, industrial strength, and diplomatic influence to shape, not just observe, this new security landscape. However, that requires engaging early, acting decisively, and preparing for a future where alliances are flexible, threats are asymmetric, and defence is no longer confined to traditional geographical boundaries. In a world where missiles cross continents and supply chains turn into battlegrounds, India’s security cannot be isolated. Europe has awoken, and India needs to follow suit.