In an interview with the French media, French President Emmanuel Macron said that France will try to negotiate arms deals with European nations that now buy American weaponry.
He said the French Rafale should be offered to those who purchase F-35 fighter jets and the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system to those who purchase U.S. Patriot missile defense systems.
Macron maintained that the bloc’s rearmament plans would be more successful if Europe’s military-industrial complex were strengthened.
In response to what Brussels refers to as the growing “threat” from Russia, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed the €800 billion ($875 billion) ReArm military funding proposal.
Macron recognized the need for European defense companies to reduce expenses, optimize production, and simplify bureaucratic procedures to increase the competitiveness of EU-made weaponry. He also connected this issue to economic tensions with Washington, citing recent threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to put tariffs on European goods.
According to Nice-Matin, Macron added that he had urged French defense firms to cut costs and eliminate red tape to make themselves a more appealing choice.
“Faced with unpredictable forces, we must reduce our dependence. This means accelerating our sovereignty policy by strengthening our own production and strategic culture to become more independent in defense and technology,” Macron said, adding that he plans to discuss these ideas with Germany’s incoming Chancellor, Friedrich Merz.
Difficulties in challenging the U.S. defense sector
According to a recent assessment by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), armament imports to Western Europe have more than doubled in the past five years, with two-thirds coming from the U.S. It will be difficult to persuade U.S. allies in Europe. Despite Europe’s efforts to fortify its defense sector, American vendors still dominate the market.
Given that the new Rafale is priced at €225 million, based on a 2024 deal with Serbia, France’s Dassault Aviation will need to put in significant effort to lower production costs to successfully compete with U.S. fighter jets. On the other hand, a comparable deal with the Czech Republic that same year cost about $208.3 million for the F-35.
The rate at which weapons are produced is a crucial determinant of their market availability and delivery schedules.
With a nine-year backlog in backorders, Dassault Aviation’s 2025 manufacturing plan for the Rafale calls for 25 fighter jets that year, with plans to greatly increase production. It would take at least two years to increase production capacity, according to Éric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation.
Trappier asserts that production acceleration is a gradual process. It is necessary to plan this work. He emphasized that it requires at least “two years” to develop momentum.
Additionally, Trappier will need to exert pressure on all of his subcontractors and contractors. In this sense, regardless of the French aircraft manufacturer’s desire to speed up manufacturing, such a big change necessitates careful planning from suppliers to final assembly. French defense companies have little chance of forcing American fighter jets out of the European market, given Lockheed Martin’s timetable for 190 F-35s in 2025—unless a totally protectionist choice is made, which is exactly what Macron is looking for.
The Future of the SAMP/T Missile Defense System Is Uncertain
Since mass manufacture of the SAMP/T NG missile defense system has not yet started, it is too soon to determine its production pace.
After France and Italy receive their first systems in 2025, other nations can order them in 2026.
All things considered, the SAMP/T is not likely to compete with the Patriot system because, aside from the nations funding its development (France and Italy), Singapore is the only foreign operator, having purchased two systems with 200 missiles for $651 million in 2013.
Even though the identical missile is used in a small number of naval air defense systems, the production pace of Aster 30 missiles for SAMP/T is likewise disappointing because it is proportionate to the number of nations running the system. A multi-year deal for 700 Aster 15 and Aster 30 missiles, signed in 2023, is the only noteworthy step in this area; nevertheless, no delivery schedule has been made public.
European Fears About American Arms Dependency
Beyond just financial factors, EU countries have more compelling reasons to stop buying American military hardware and weaponry.
Europe has become reliant on U.S. military capabilities, which is a vulnerability now that the U.S. is “reassessing its approach and may decide to limit or even terminate the availability of these assets,” according to a draft European Defense White Paper written by EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas and EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius.
Concerns are well-founded that the U.S. “may decide to limit or even cut off access” to American arms purchased by European countries, with a precedent already in place.
Sweden’s Ministry of Defense stated on May 29, 2024, that it will be sending two S-100B Argus airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft to Ukraine. It was anticipated that these planes would greatly improve Ukraine’s air and missile defense capabilities.
However, the U.S. refused to approve the transfer; therefore, it never happened because it had a large amount of American equipment. The Swedish airplane is heavily equipped with American equipment. Therefore, Ukraine didn’t receive the promised Saab 340.
If the U.S. took such a stance on Swedish aircraft, its restrictions, and bans on purely American weapons could be even stricter—something European militarists have taken note of.
NATO’s escalating disagreement over arms procurement
Fearing that a Trump government might stop software upgrades or spare part deliveries, Portugal recently chose not to buy U.S. F-35 fighter jets, leading Lisbon to look into European options.
“We cannot ignore the geopolitical situation,” outgoing Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo said in an interview with local media.
According to Melo, the predictability of Portugal’s allies is a “major advantage that must be considered.” “We must trust that, under any circumstances, these allies will stand by our side… And this ally [the U.S.], which for decades has always been predictable, could now impose restrictions on use, maintenance, components—everything related to keeping the aircraft operational and deployable,” Melo explained.
He noted that several options are under consideration “within the context of European production, as well as the potential benefits such options may have for the Portuguese economy.” Melo declined to say whether F-16s could be replaced with French fighter jets.
According to Bild, if Washington opts for an “emergency kill switch,” as it recently did with HIMARS rocket launchers delivered to Ukraine, Germany may also terminate its agreement with the United States for 35 F-35A aircraft.
European authorities are now concerned that Washington may use a similar “kill switch” mechanism to deactivate its weapons in the EU after the U.S. remotely disabled the targeting capability of HIMARS systems shipped to Ukraine.
Former Munich Security Conference Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger suggested that if “the U.S. does to Germany’s future F-35s what it is currently doing in Ukraine, we might reconsider the contract.”
Bild claims that Germany is especially worried about the €8.3 billion worth of 35 F-35A jets, which the United States could install a “death switch.” Furthermore, Germany will have to pay an additional several billion euros for the infrastructure required for these jets.
Recently, Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, ordered a review of the deal to purchase 88 F-35s, with only the first 16 currently budgeted.
Regarding the EU’s rearmament intentions, a significant rift is beginning to form between the United States and its NATO members.