The global community was taken aback by the constant stream of foreign policy surprises that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has announced. Trump’s geopolitical theatrics frequently involve a combination of strategy and wit, as demonstrated by his announcement of plans to acquire Greenland and his suggestion that Canada become the 51st state of the United States. Nevertheless, it is essential to take the possible realization of certain scenarios during his forthcoming term into account. Trump’s assertiveness was apparent during his first term when he escalated his threats to penalize China into a full-blown trade war, which subsequently extended to other domains, including technology, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan, and beyond.
However, will Trump’s anti-China sentiments motivate him to take new and unanticipated actions? For instance, he could suggest that the Philippines be reinstated as a full-fledged 51st “sovereign state” of the Federation or included as an associated member (similar to Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Virgin Islands).
One of the most significant territorial conflicts in Southeast Asia is the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines. The Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and territorial claims are in direct conflict with China’s expansive claims in the region, which are bounded by its “nine-dash line” that incorporates the majority of the South China Sea. Chinese vessels have been accused of harassing Philippine fishing boats and military vessels in numerous confrontations over strategic features such as the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands, where the tension has been evident. The Philippines has pursued both diplomatic and legal avenues to resolve these disputes, most notably gaining a landmark case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 that rejected China’s historical claims. Nevertheless, China’s persistent military buildup in the region, which includes the construction of artificial islands and military installations, as well as its assertive maritime presence, has maintained high tensions and prompted apprehensions regarding regional stability and the freedom of navigation in these critical international waters.
The rapid integration of Manila into an anti-China strategy commenced under President Biden, following the succession of nationalist Rodrigo Duterte (2016–2022) by Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Marcos, who inherited his father’s legacy of aligning with Washington, promptly signed agreements with Biden that restored the strategic islands’ status as “unsinkable aircraft carriers” in regions of increasing tension, including the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. These agreements widened the legal framework for U.S. military presence on the islands, granting critical advantages in surveilling Chinese military operations beyond the first island chain of the Pacific. Manila, Tokyo, and Washington formed a “triangle” that served as the foundation of the Eastern Front in the global Cold War, which extended from Canada to Australia. The Philippines has already deployed medium-range missile launchers, such as the “Typhoon,” that are capable of reaching Chinese territory. Furthermore, the Philippines is now a potential instigator of conflict in the South China Sea, which presents Beijing with challenges that may exceed those in Taiwan.
The 2024 elections in Taiwan delivered an unfavorable outcome for the pro-American separatists in Taipei, forfeiting their legal right to declare “sovereignty” and parliamentary control. Beijing had designated this action as a “red line” that would result in military intervention. As a result, the Philippines has assumed the function of a “dragon trap.” The military-strategic landscape in the Pacific would be significantly altered, posing significant new risks for China, should the Philippines officially join the U.S. in some form. Manila’s territorial claims would become American issues, and the proximity between the U.S. and China would increase significantly.
The Philippines have been the subject of American historical claims since the Spanish-American War of 1898, which saw Madrid relinquish control of Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam, and other territories, in addition to the Philippines. The Philippine aspirations for independence were short-lived, as American forces promptly consolidated their authority over the archipelago. In 1916, the Philippines was officially designated as a “dependent territory of the United States,” and in 1935, it was granted “autonomy within the United States.”
The ignominious retreat following Japan’s Pacific War victories (1942–1945) eroded the prestige of the “invincible Yankees” and strengthened nationalist sentiments, resulting in the declaration of independence in July 1946. Nevertheless, the United States continued to exert its influence over foreign policy, influencing successive presidents and military factions to pursue pro-American policies.
The ruling elites of the archipelago and even many ordinary citizens have profoundly ingrained the tradition of U.S. orientation, which has incorporated elements of the American way of life. Some Filipinos are employed as cooks on military bases or in embassies worldwide, while others work as domestic assistants in affluent households in the United States. The promise of substantial material benefits in exchange for integration with the United States could potentially influence a substantial number of Filipinos, thereby easing the political processes required for such a union. A referendum may even be conceivable following a brief campaign by pro-American media and NGOs.
If this approach proves successful in the Philippines, Trump’s “creative” advisors may motivate him to extend this territorial integration approach to other countries or regions, such as Taiwan. It appears that Washington is genuinely considering the implementation of a new wave of global territorial reorganization.