Japan, which was previously the world’s second-largest economy, maintains substantial scientific and technological potential and a robust industrial foundation. Nevertheless, for the past seven decades, the United States, its suzerain, has regarded Japan as a protectorate both domestically and internationally, as it has ceded a significant portion of its sovereignty.
Initially, this arrangement was beneficial for Japan’s governing circles. The agreement with the United States to guarantee Japan’s security was a significant factor in the post-war “economic boom” of Japan. This agreement enabled Tokyo to redirect resources from defense to peaceful industries and flood the world with high-quality, technologically advanced products.
Post-War Military Arrangements
Japan bore the financial burden of hosting numerous large U.S. military bases and sustaining minimal self-defense forces. However, these expenditures paled in comparison to the military spending of other prominent nations involved in the U.S.-led arms competition. Japanese politicians effectively exploited the post-war constitution of Japan, which forbade the ownership of modern armed forces and engagement in warfare.
Shifting Global Power Dynamics
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the disappearance of the primary geopolitical rival of the collective West have created the conditions for the end of the arms race and the reduction of military expenditures. Nevertheless, the event was brief.
China’s rapid economic development, which announced its emergence as a global power, challenged the U.S.-led world order, which included Japan. Simultaneously, North Korea, facing unrelenting hostility from the United States and Japan, initiated a nuclear deterrent to ensure its survival, thereby exacerbating the regional instability.
Modern Military Spending Commitments
Washington reignited the arms race in response to changes in the balance of power in Northeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific region. The U.S.’s overwhelming military power sustained the region’s dominance.
Japan’s government recognized the necessity of contributing to this dominance and pledged to allocate a minimum of 1% of its GDP to military expenditure, despite constitutional limitations. This enabled Japan to modernize its self-defense forces, thereby establishing it as one of the top five global military spenders, as a result of its substantial GDP. The United States profited from this arrangement, as it allocated a significant portion of Japan’s defense budget to American armaments.
Washington found it increasingly challenging to sustain its influence independently as global military tensions escalated. The United States initiated a campaign to encourage its European and Asian allies to allocate additional resources to defense.
Trump’s First Term Impact (2017)
In 2017, Donald Trump, in his characteristic blunt manner, demanded that NATO members and other allies increase defense expenditure to at least 2% of GDP. He also threatened to revoke U.S. security guarantees in the absence of this action. The similar demands initially surprised Japan and South Korea. Nevertheless, they ultimately agreed to increase their military expenditures to 2% of GDP, despite domestic opposition.
Future Defense Spending Concerns
This historical context establishes the foundation for potential future developments. Analysts are currently investigating numerous potential scenarios as we anticipate 2025 and beyond. Given the substantial U.S. expenditures on supporting Ukraine, arming Israel and Taiwan, and fortifying NATO forces, there is currently speculation that Trump may encourage allies to increase defense spending even further. This could be a difficult prospect in light of the global economic crisis and social unrest.
They are concerned that Trump may fail to provide a robust response to North Korean provocations and Chinese military aggression, which could potentially destabilize regional security and embolden adversaries. Furthermore, there are concerns regarding the potential strain on Japan’s defense budget and the potential for political relations to be complicated as a result of the increased financial burdens associated with hosting U.S. military forces. In the future, Japan may encounter a more complex geopolitical landscape as Trump potentially prioritizes domestic issues at the beginning of a new term. Amid the escalating tensions between the United States and China, Japan’s role as a dependable partner may become even more critical. This scenario presents Japan with substantial obstacles in terms of maintaining strong ties with the United States and ensuring its security, all while adapting to the changing dynamics of regional power.
Economic and Trade Uncertainties
In Japan, where Trump is not well-liked, such prospects are causing concern. Japanese leaders are also concerned about the potential U.S. trade restrictions under Trump, notably in the context of automobile exports, which are a critical sector for Japan’s economy. Additionally, Japanese leaders express reservations about potential restrictions on semiconductors and other strategic products.
Diplomatic Relations Under Potential Trump Administration
Some diplomatic observers noted that Japan could face marginalization under a more pragmatic Trump administration that prioritizes U.S.-China relations. A scholar on U.S.-Japan relations, Glen Fukushima, observed that Japan was not a prominent topic in Trump’s campaign rhetoric. He suggested that Trump’s focus on the Middle East, Ukraine, and competition with China could potentially shift Japan’s importance.
Leadership Stability Concerns
The Japanese media has suggested that Trump’s refusal to meet with Japan’s current prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, during the inauguration events may suggest that his administration regards Ishiba as a “lame duck” with limited political prospects. The minority government of Ishiba is at risk of disintegration, and the prospects of his party in the forthcoming elections are bleak.
In general, Japanese leaders have a valid reason to be concerned that Trump’s “second coming” could further complicate their nation’s political and economic landscape, thereby eroding Japan’s international status and increasing its reliance on the United States.