Think tanks act as the “brain trust” of a nation or institution—they assist in thinking beyond the immediate, integrating knowledge across domains, and giving structured advice for informed decision-making. They guide policy innovation—research-based ideas and practical solutions for governance, security, and development; strategic foresight—provide long-term perspectives and enable better preparedness for future challenges; and influence & soft power—shape decision-making, public opinion, and international policy debates through credible analysis.
However, advancements in technology are not only driving warfare and economics but also geopolitics, foreign relations, alliances, etc. This factor needs to be incorporated by Think Tanks and decision makers in their calculus. Think-Tanks largely even now are focusing on geopolitics: territorial disputes, alliances, balance of power, trade blocs, nuclear deterrence, etc. But the advancements in technology as both a driver and arena of power is changing this preset notion. Geopolitics is not irrelevant, but it is being reframed by geotechnology. Think Tanks should focus on these changing dynamics.
Shift from Geopolitics to Geotechnology
- Geopolitics traditionally and even now largely focuses on borders, military alliances, resources, and geography. These were largely the ‘measures of power.’ But now, the new measure of power is control of semiconductors, AI, cyber infrastructure, satellites, data, and supply chains, which are possibly more critical than earlier measures of power.
- Think tanks must map tech dependencies (e.g., chip industry capabilities, undersea cables, rare earths) alongside traditional geopolitics. The ‘Chip War’ is now a reality.
New Domains of Competition
- Cybersecurity, space, AI governance, quantum, biotech, etc.—these are now the new strategic battlegrounds. These domains need detailed examination for future policy making and mapping National interests.
- In a Multi Domain Operational (MDO) environment, cyber security and space are the most critical domains for National Security. Their deep understanding is essential to secure national security objectives and interests. Think tanks that do not integrate tech foresight will not serve national interests & risk becoming irrelevant.
Tech Firms as Geopolitical Actors
- Big Tech (Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Huawei, Palantir, etc.) now wields influence like nation-states. Policy research must consider state–corporate partnerships and competition.
- Elon Musk’s “Starlink” greatly influenced the intelligence and information operations in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and, resultantly, the outcomes. Tech firms are capable of demonstrating how AI-driven intelligence and open-source technology can influence and shape the outcomes of conflicts.
- Here then also comes the need for data security, indigenous tech firms (AI and language models), indigenous operating systems, and databases. This underscores the need for “Atma Nirbharta” for deep tech. The Think Tanks need to be technically skilled for examination of this aspect to ensure proper policy guidance in this regard.
Speed & Complexity of Decision-Making
- Geopolitical analysis once unfolded over decades. Strategic actions were planned over the course of the next 20-30 years. Now, AI-driven disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and drone warfare can alter realities in hours. This aspect is evident in many current examples—the sudden eruption of the Israel-Iran conflict based on “info” that Iran is enriching Uranium to 60%, the Thailand-Cambodia conflict based on “info” of drone sightings over the disputed 11th-century Preah Vihear temple and others also, including the launch of our Op Sindoor post Pakistan’s provocative terrorist attack in Pahalgam.
- Think tanks must build real-time monitoring & data analysis capabilities (using OSINT, AI, and big data). This would be a natural outcome with military and civil tech requirements merging and should be encouraged/planned.
- It may not be out of context to state that the non-contact & non-kinetic actions of an adversarial Nation can be predicted by Think Tanks if they are able to suitably adapt to real-time monitoring and data analytics.
From Academic Reports to Policy Tech Labs
- All strategic analysis and reports by most Think Tanks including the premier ones analyse policy aspects and suggest “outcome(s)” based on prevailing conditions. But with dynamism in external environments, changing in a matter of weeks or, in some cases, hours, ‘static reports’ are not enough. The “sudden” imposition of tariffs by the USA has impacted and is altering international relations built over many decades.
- Thus, forward-looking think tanks need to be set up, and some are setting up simulation centers, wargaming labs, and AI-based scenario modeling to test how technology shifts the balance of power.
Blurred Boundaries of Security & Society
Tech governance issues like data privacy, social media narratives, deepfakes, and supply chain vulnerabilities are now strategic issues. These all require monitoring and analysis through technology. Shaping perceptions, social engineering, and information warfare in the cognitive domain will impact not only security apparatus but also shape narratives for building corporate brands, steering election outcomes, and even market sentiment.
Key Challenges
- systemsThe transition from traditional system to Techno Strategic Hubs is not easy. The main challenges stem from legacy mindsets & lack of technical literacy. Also, it comes from complacency that ‘things’ are okay—why change the status quo?
- Other challenges to this transition are lack of funds, difficulty in hiring and retaining talent (most will prefer IT firms) and limited technical wherewithal (limited access to data, OSINT tools, etc.).
Change is Essential
- Despite the current mindset & impediments, this change is essential and imperative. Solutions will have to be found in that—train existing fellows, hire hybrid talent, or negotiate MOUs with tech firms or even IITs/other research institutes.
- Some Think Tanks possibly need to merge, as there is too much duplicity. Hiring of specialists on short-term contracts or rotational fellowships can be set up; talent pool sharing across think tanks are some of the options.
- With time a criticality—research from earlier large manuscripts also needs to be summarised (by AI) into two- or three-page briefs for assimilation and implementation by decision makers.
- Networking of Think Tanks and even with Global ones who are in alliance, is not a far-fetched idea.
Bottom Line
Geopolitics is not irrelevant, but it is incomplete without geotechnology. The cutting-edge role of Think Tanks is to become bridges between technology, policy, and strategy—forecasting how emerging tech alters global power dynamics. Think tanks that stay focused only on maps, borders, and alliances risk being left behind.
Think tanks must restructure their DNA from report-writing institutes to Techno-Strategic Intelligence Hubs. Integrating international relations and their existing expertise combined with technical foresight and real-time monitoring will make them indispensable in shaping tech-driven geopolitics.
This requirement of incorporating geo-technology is not only for the Think Tanks but now also a prerequisitefor the decision makers and those in governance.