Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is staking his political future on a bold campaign: direct airstrikes against Iranian nuclear installations. This high-stakes strategy is anchored within a narrative of Israel’s paramilitary heritage, nuclear deterrence, and proxy containment. At this pivotal moment, five distinct yet interlocking threads converge, each with significant strategic implications:
Israel’s paramilitary foundations, from the early days of Haganah to the more recent Irgun and Lehi, have played a significant role in shaping the country’s modern strategic culture. Understanding their historical context is crucial to comprehending their influence.
Iran’s rise as a regional power is built on a sophisticated web of proxy forces.
The nuclear fault line between Israel and Iran, with Israel’s opacity versus Iran’s contested civilian atomic program.
Israel–Iran ties from 1948 to 1979—a surprising history of collaboration, clandestine dealings, and eventual estrangement.
Pakistan’s ideological closeness with Iran post-1979 reflects a deeper pan-Islamist counter‑narrative opposed to Israel.
This strategic tapestry is unfolding through Operation Rising Lion, placing Netanyahu’s premiership at risk. Victory could stamp him as a visionary leader; a misstep might doom him. His decisions—not just about warfare, but about state identity—will define Israel’s path into the 21st century.
From Underground Militias to Statecraft: Israel’s Paramilitary Heritage
Haganah: Foundation of National Defence
The formation of Haganah in 1920 under the Jewish Agency was a response to systemic threats against Jewish communities. As the major umbrella militia, it initially followed the principle of Havlagah (“restraint”) during the 1936–39 Arab Revolt. However, existential threats and growing disorder necessitated a shift in Haganah’s posture. By May 1948, it had evolved into the bedrock of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), showcasing the adaptability of Israel’s defense forces.
Irgun: Militancy and Psychological Warfare
Irgun, established under Ze’ev Jabotinsky’s revisionist ideology, broke from Haganah’s restraint. It adopted militant tactics dubbed “active defense,” seeking to shake the status quo. The July 1946 King David Hotel bombing killed 91—a propaganda shock that showcased Irgun’s willingness to target high-value infrastructure. During the 1947–48 conflict, the Irgun pursued operations aimed at forcibly shaping victory, forging pathways for an on-ground force to define national borders.
Lehi (Stern Gang): Extremism Evolving into Political Influence
Avraham Stern founded Lehi (the Stern Gang), a radical group even by militant standards, in 1940. It envisioned Israel’s independence as existing in a “state of war” with the British. In 1944, its assassins killed British Minister Lord Moyne. In early 1948, the Deir Yassin massacre left 100–120 Arabs dead—an event that spread terror but also the impetus for Arab flight. After independence, Lehi dissolved, but its members transitioned into politics, with Yitzhak Shamir eventually leading the state. This evolution of Lehi from extremism to political influence is a testament to the complexity of Israel’s political landscape.
Militarised statecraft. By the 1950s, these factions had become institutionalized. Haganah veterans ascended into the IDF hierarchy; former Irgun and Lehi men became politicians or bureaucrats, embedding militarism into Israeli political culture. National security, aggressive deterrence, and preemption became axiomatic.
Israel–Iran Relationship: 1948–1979
Israel and Iran were early pragmatists. However, Iran never formally recognized Israel, and covert coordination strengthened throughout the 1950s–70s. Joint initiatives included:
Oil supply from Iran in exchange for Israeli arms and technical know-how.
Shared CENTO intelligence efforts countered Soviet expansion and pan-Arab influence.
Secret bilateral agreements, like “Project Flower,” a 1977 missile development agreement, were established.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution abruptly ended this unspoken alliance. Iran’s new clerics severed ties, expelled elements of a shared strategic vision, and began framing Israel as a central adversary.
Yet this early cooperation is a crucial strategic layer. It underscores that today’s hostility traces back to a geopolitical pivot, implying that Israel and Iran once viewed each other through a pragmatic lens of national necessity.
Pakistan–Iran Alliance Against Israel (Post‑1979)
Following the Mecca siege in 1979, Pakistani students, aligned with Islamist sentiments inspired by Khomeini, attacked the American embassy in Islamabad. This event, along with the deeper alignment of Iran and Pakistan under Zia-ul-Haq, highlights the emergence of a pan-Islamist front. Through diplomatic pressure, intelligence sharing, and ideological solidarity, Pakistan backed Iran’s stance against Israel, embedding a broader anti‑Israel position across South Asia.
Thus, the post‑1979 Islamic spirit didn’t just redraw Middle Eastern alliances—it redrew South Asian geopolitical coalitions in ways that continue to influence regional diplomacy and attitudes toward Israel today.
Iran’s Proxy Framework: Rise, Influence, Erosion
Hezbollah: Tehran’s Military-Political Cadre
Formed in Beirut in 1982, Hezbollah combined religious motivations with Iranian IRGC logistical support. It asserted itself as Iran’s premier proxy in Lebanon and remains a formidable military force.
Hamas & Islamic Jihad: Gaza’s Islamist Resistance
Hamas, born in December 1987 from Gaza’s Muslim Brotherhood networks, pivoted quickly into armed resistance under Sheikh Yassin. Using mosque outreach and welfare structures—such as Mujama al-Islamiya—solidified popular support. Iran has funded Hamas since the mid-1990s, giving it financial and military resilience. After Hamas’s 2006 democratic electoral victory, it became the governing power in Gaza, blending state controls with military autonomy.
Iraqi Shi’a Militias: Internal Leverage
Post-2003, Iran formed hybrid entities in Iraq—Kata’ib Hezbollah, and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, among others—to influence politics, security apparatus, and military engagement.
Houthis: Yemen’s Proxy
Since 2015, Iran has armed the Houthis in its fight against the Saudi–UAE coalition. With air capabilities—including drones and missiles—it has disrupted Red Sea shipping routes, thereby projecting Iranian influence via maritime routes.
Israel’s Counter‑Offensive (2023–24)
- Gaza-based airstrikes dismantled Hamas’ command.
- Northern border operations struck Hezbollah’s battlefield capability.
- Syrian stronghold attacks and logistics routes linking Iran to proxies were neutralized.
- Reuters summarised the result: “Iran’s regional power network is fading,” concluding with Operation Rising Lion—Israel hitting Iran’s homeland for the first time.
Nuclear Strategic Dimensions: Israel vs. Iran
Israel’s Strategic Ambiguity
Israel retains a nuclear threshold capability, kept intentionally ambiguous. The atomic arsenal—90 to 400 warheads—is delivered via jet bombers, Jericho missiles, and Dolphin-class submarines. This opacity serves as regional deterrence without triggering disarmament demands or inspections—a model some scholars term “strategic ambiguity.”
Iran’s Nuclear Trajectory
After the 1979 revolution, Iran remained a member of the NPT but redirected its nuclear program toward civilian ends. Post-U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran increased its enrichment to 60% purity by 2025 levels near weapons grade. The IAEA had cited Iran for undeclared materials, prompting international alarm and accusations of dual-use intention.
Strategic Implications
- Nuclear asymmetry empowers Israel to strike covertly.
- Diplomatic imbalance: Iran is held in check while Israel remains unaccountable.
- Proxy destruction becomes plausible with a nuclear umbrella in place.
- Escalation peril: Attacks on Iran’s hardened sites could provoke kinetic consequences far beyond the region.
Netanyahu’s Strategic Gamble
Political Timing & Coalition Stability
Netanyahu’s leadership relies heavily on support from the far right and ultra-Orthodox communities. He narrowly avoided Knesset dissolution and passed a defense-oriented budget, securing his government until October 2026. However, the coalition remains tension‑prone.
Weaponising National Security
“Operation Rising Lion” is Netanyahu’s centerpiece. A quick and surgical strike could secure his reputation as Israel’s protector. Missteps, civilian casualties, or poorly communicated strategy could fracture Israeli cohesion.
Legal Exposure & Diplomatic Fallout
Netanyahu’s tenure is marred by corruption charges and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC). A broader conflict risks inflaming diplomacy, with moral and legal pressure from Europe and Israel’s diaspora conglomerates.
Netanyahu’s Survival Scenarios Through 2026
Short‑Term (Now–Late 2025)
Stronghold intact. War posture, funding, and legal dormancy yield Netanyahu political reciprocity. The absence of immediate legislative challenge enables movement.
Mid‑Term (Early–Mid 2026)
Pivotal moment. The success or failure of Operation Rising Lion, along with the metrics of proxy containment, public morale, casualty numbers, and legal progression, will determine whether he remains strategically secure. A strong operational outcome could level the playing field for re-election; failure or links to an economic downturn and legal action could spur a coalition collapse.
Long‑Term (Post‑Election Late 2026)
Decision time. Netanyahu may gain another term upon perceived victory. However, if the war drags on, economic decline sets in, legal prosecution intensifies, and global pressure mounts, the electorate may shift to a centrist or technocratic government, sidelining Netanyahu permanently.
Strategic Insight: Netanyahu’s Crossroads
Transformative Operation. This strike is Netanyahu’s greatest gamble—it could crown him as the nation’s savior or mark him as a reckless leader.
Tactical Time Pressure. The coalition’s budget and mandate are set to expire in 2026, creating a ticking clock. Beyond mid-2026, political capital deteriorates significantly.
Proxy Outcomes as Strategic Benchmark. Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis are vital barometers. Their suppression or resurgence will define the campaign’s success.
Paramilitary Legacy Resonates. Netanyahu’s calculus echoes the bold, sometimes brutal decisions of Haganah, Irgun, and Lehi. Past triumphs (1948, 1967) and disasters (1973) serve as cautionary precedents.
Conclusion
Prime Minister Netanyahu is steering Israel at a historically delicate juncture. His premiership is grounded in the nation’s paramilitary origins, nuclear ambiguity, evolving Iran–Israel relations, and proxy confrontations, and is further colored by post‑1979 ideological realignments involving Iran and Pakistan. His legacy now hinges on four crucibles:
The tactical victory in Operation Rising Lion, the neutralization of Iran’s proxy apparatus, the management of lethal nuclear deterrence without triggering global escalation, and the maintenance of internal political stability amid mounting legal, diplomatic, and financial stress.
A triumphant campaign could secure Netanyahu’s place in history. Failure—even partial—might dissolve his political coalition, usher in a new leadership, and leave lasting scars on Israel’s defense doctrine. This is Israel’s moment—bold, perilous, and transformative—and Netanyahu’s gamble may define the state’s trajectory for decades to come.