Ukraine intends to use American weapons to strike Russian territory. The United States, which earlier opposed this concept, is considering giving Kyiv the green light.
The ongoing debate at the White House could lead to a breakthrough in the conflict, which is in a critical phase due to Moscow’s offensive in the Kharkiv region aimed at creating a buffer zone; as President Vladimir Putin has stated, Russia aims to create a security zone that forces Ukrainian forces to retreat and prevents Kyiv from hitting enemy positions with artillery.
Which US Weapons Can be Used For Such Strikes?
The United States has supplied Ukraine with a number of long-range weaponry. The preferred weapon for Ukraine to strike Russia would be the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which includes missiles such as MGM-140B ATACMS Block 1A, MGM-168A ATACMS Block 1A (QRU), MGM-164 ATACMS 2000, and MGM-164 ATACMS 2000 MOD. Other modifications are also possible. ATACMS has a firing range of approximately 300 kilometers. The United States could theoretically provide hundreds of these missiles to Ukraine, and it currently does.
Ukraine could also strike Russian territories with US-made F-16 fighter aircraft when it arrives. Ukraine has already been using its Russian-origin aircraft fitted with the British and French cruise missile Storm Shadow.
How ATACMS Threaten Russia?
This could allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to strike Russian military targets in tactical and operational depth, including destroying aircraft takeoff and landing sites, air defense facilities, disrupting troop and weapon control, hitting reserves, communications, loading and dispatch railway stations, and also striking other vital targets.
It is the reason why Kyiv’s leadership and the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are urging the relaxation of prohibitions on the use of weapons supplied by Washington for strikes on military targets on Russian territory. This might significantly shift the balance of strength and resources in favor of the Ukrainian Armed strength.
The Targeting Issue
Merely possessing long-range US weapons is one thing, and using them is another due to a lack of targeting data.
The US restriction for weapons use, combined with its refusal to share intelligence data that Ukraine could use to attack targets in Russia with Ukrainian drones and weapons systems, has curtailed Kyiv’s ability to target Russian command centers and military concentrations on the Russian side of the border.
Russia is moving men and resources from adjacent secure areas to northeastern Ukraine, stepping up attacks in the Kharkiv region.
US Green Light to Kyiv to strike Russia?
On May 20th, a group of American legislators wrote to Pentagon director Lloyd Austin, requesting approval for Ukraine to deploy US-supplied weaponry to strike targets within Russia.
The document was signed by 13 members of the United States Congress, including seven Democrats and six Republicans. It’s worth mentioning that there are 535 voting members of the US Congress.
However, there are some indications that the Joe Biden administration is unlikely to adopt such moves, at least in the near future. In this context, it is worth noting that “escalatory” moods are not even prevalent in the United States Congress. The amount of signatories to a letter to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin provides enough evidence of this.
Furthermore, there is a clear understanding in the US Congress that strikes with American weapons on targets deep within Russia would shift the armed conflict to a completely new phase and level, with the consequences potentially being poorly calculated and unpredictable.
As a result, at present time, the US is hesitating from making such choices. Furthermore, if Ukraine launches direct strikes on Russian territory, there will almost probably be retaliatory measures that Russia’s military-political leadership is not currently taking. These could include conventional weapon strikes on Kyiv decision-making centers, Western arms entrance points into Ukrainian territory, and Dnieper bridge crossings.
However, if the situation regarding the use of American weapons changes, there is another very dangerous warning for the collective West: the Southern Military District has begun the first stage of drills to simulate the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.
It is uncertain whether missile launches with actual nuclear detonations will take place at the Novaya Zemlya test site – Sukhoi Nos Peninsula, training area D2 – during these exercises. And if it does happen, the signal transmitted will be loud, leaving no stone left in terms of previously voiced Western thoughts about Moscow’s nuclear blackmail and Russia’s present nuclear weapons readiness difficulties.
Earlier this month, the United Kingdom argued that Ukraine had the right to use the weaponry handed to it against targets in Russia.
