The three main companies involved in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), namely Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), BAE Systems, and Leonardo, unveiled a new design for the 6th generation fighter aircraft at the Farnborough Airshow 2024.
GCAP is being run in collaboration with the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan. It is progressing at a “steady pace” and is on the brink of launching its design and development phase, which is still scheduled for 2025. This program originated from the “Tempest” program and was officially unveiled by the British Ministry of Defense in 2018.
This aircraft boasts a 22.4-meter length and a 19.2-meter wingspan with wings extended, comparable to those of the F-111 “Aardvark.” According to BAE Systems, this is intended to enhance its aerodynamic profile.
The British group said engineers from BAE Systems, Leonardo, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are working together to design and develop future fighter aircraft using innovative digital tools and techniques, including computer modeling and virtual reality.
Additionally, it added that the GCAP, scheduled to be operational by 2035, will be one of the most advanced, interoperable, adaptable, and connected combat aircraft in the world, equipped with an intelligent weapon system, an interactive cockpit, integrated sensors, and a powerful next-generation radar capable of providing 10,000 times more data than current systems, giving it a decisive advantage in battle.
However, this timeline is not final. In fact, the newly elected British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer of the Labour Party, stated his intention to “officially emphasize” the significance of the GCAP for the United Kingdom. However, his government, notably the Minister for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard, has been considerably more reserved regarding the future of this initiative, which London intends to allocate 2.5 billion pounds sterling by 2025. In reality, the Strategic Defense Review, whose supervision has recently been assigned to the former NATO Secretary General Lord George Robertson, will be the determining factor. Robertson will oversee an assessment of Britain’s military strategy to address what he refers to as the “deadly quartet” of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
Pollard, on July 19, highlighted its importance not only for their own country but also for their Japanese and Italian partners. He mentioned an upcoming meeting at Farnborough to discuss this program further. However, he expressed uncertainty about the potential outcomes of the Strategic Defense Review. The minister suggested that Robertson should be free to explore all available options. He emphasized the need for advanced capabilities while stressing the importance of cost-effectiveness in acquiring high-end systems. The minister advocated for collaboration with international partners to achieve this balance between cutting-edge technology and financial prudence.
One of the concerns is whether the United Kingdom should reevaluate its priorities in anticipation of a potential conflict with Russia, which some predict could occur within the next three to five years. In the event of a conflict in Europe within the next five years, the GCAP will be left impractical as the global economy will have collapsed entirely, according to Justin Brook, a military aviation specialist at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
Additionally, an official from the Royal Air Force (RAF) informed the press that Minister Pollard’s position did not take him aback. According to him, the investment in the GCAP will account for approximately one-quarter of the UK’s expenditure on the army’s materiel acquisition plan over the next decade.
The US Air Force is currently contemplating the future of its NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) program, which was initiated in 2015 to replace its 5th generation air superiority aircraft, the F-22A Raptor.
In 2020, a demonstrator made its maiden flight, and a contract to finalize its design is expected to be awarded to one of the two contenders, Boeing or Lockheed Martin. In addition to developing a sixth-generation fighter aircraft, this program intends to acquire “loyal wingman” drones as part of the CCA (Collaborative Combat Aircraft) initiative.
Nevertheless, there has been recent discussion regarding the potential for a “revolutionary technological advance” to be achieved by “rethinking” this NGAD. It appears to be an excessively costly endeavor, necessitating a minimum of $100 billion in total investment for “only” 200 aircraft. This is especially so given that other critical projects, such as the B-21 Raider strategic bomber and the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, require funding. Frank Kendall, the US Air Force Secretary, stated on the sidelines of the Farnborough airshow on July 20 that the NGAD was conceived before the beginning of the current accessibility issues, the introduction of CCAs, and the escalating severity of the threat. Additionally, the capabilities of this new fighter aircraft must be consistent with the threats it will encounter.
In the meantime, the F/A-XX, the Navy’s equivalent of the NGAD, is evidently in jeopardy in the United States. The Senate Armed Services Committee intends to reduce its financing by 90% in the 2025 budget. The US Navy, like the US Air Force, has other more essential priorities to fund, even though this decision has not yet been confirmed.
The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) is progressing, with phase 1B being formally launched in April 2023 with partner countries France, Germany, and Spain. However, the equation will become more complex once again when the demonstrators are introduced as the next stage. Its continuation will be predominantly determined by political will, in addition to the industrial aspects.