The Bulgarian Air Force is currently in a state of urgency, desperately in need of operational combat aircraft. The organization is now in the process of selecting an interim fighter, a decision that cannot be delayed. Since 2022, Sofia has been exploring the possibility of leasing a few low-cost combat aircraft to hasten the retirement of its last Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrum and Sukhoi Su-25 Frogfoot, which are now completely obsolete. The Russians exclusively maintained these aircraft until the Ukraine war began. With the impending arrival of its initial Lockheed-Martin F-16V Viper, the Air Force is now faced with a crucial decision, torn between two offers: those from Sweden and France. This is a competition between two planes that are vastly different.
Bulgaria ordered the F-16V Viper in two different batches. The initial acquisition occurred in April 2020, while the subsequent one occurred in September 2022. Lockheed-Martin fortified the emerging position of the most recent F-16 in Europe with its two sets of eight multi-role combat aircraft. However, the accelerated wear and tear of the attack aircraft and fighters in the Air Force was not a factor that the American engineers or the Bulgarian decision-makers appeared to have foreseen. They are currently completely worn out. Additionally, Sofia has abandoned its plans to provide Ukraine with its final five Su-25K Frogfoots, except for cannibalization, as it did with the initial five. However, the Bulgarian generals and NATO are particularly concerned about the eleven single-seat MiG-29s and the two operational conversion two-seaters.
It is important to bear in mind that Bulgaria, along with Romania and Turkey, is responsible for air defense and interception missions over the Black Sea, which the Kremlin regards as a Russian mare nostrum. Consequently, the Air Force cannot wait until the second half of 2027, when Lockheed Martin is scheduled to deliver the first F-16V Vipers. It is important to remember that these aircraft are being built from the ground up.
Hence, a span of two and a half to three years appears to be excessively lengthy to Bulgaria’s institutional and military decision-makers. Sofia is currently reviewing the official proposals from Stockholm and Paris for an interim fighter. The country plans a micro fleet of ten to twelve aircraft to serve as a bridge between the F-16V Viper and the MiG-29 Fulcrum. The surplus Dutch F-16 was once in Bulgarian political debate and was used to attack President Rumen Radev, who is known to be pro-Gripen. As a matter of fact, President Rumen is a former fighter pilot.
Objectively, there is currently no official statement on the subject from any of the parties involved. The sole indirect remark on the subject in the past was the statement made by Defense Minister Stoyanov in Brussels in 2022, which stated that the Netherlands is, in principle, prepared to assist Bulgaria by providing pilot training for the F-16.
Now, the French Dassault Aviation Mirage 2000C and the Swedish Saab JAS 39C/D Gripen are both vying for this contract. The design of these two aircraft is vastly different. The former is a pure fighter, a formidable interceptor, whereas the latter is a much more versatile aircraft. The JAS 39C/D Gripen is still in service in Sweden, while the Mirage 2000C is no longer in service in France.
On paper, the Swedish aircraft outperforms its French counterpart. Nevertheless, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces and Dassault Aviation have valid arguments to present. Initially, the Mirage 2000Cs and the two-seater Mirage-2000B, which are also included in the proposal, are quickly accessible, as a significant number of them were stored in cocoons following their retirement from service. Secondly, unlike its competitor, Bulgarians have never rejected it. In fact, they chose the F-16V over the Gripen, which they believed was unsuitable for their requirements. Lastly, the Mirage 2000C would provide Bulgarian pilots with their first experience with the French aircraft manufacturer. Bulgaria hinted that the Rafale could be deployed to boost its fighter fleet in the autumn of 2022.
Paradoxically, Swedish Gripen fighters may not be the most desired option for “replacement” combat aircraft. The critical aspect of this situation is that Bulgaria had submitted another request to acquire ten new Gripens, potentially on a lease basis. Nevertheless, no defense company maintains a “stock” of new fighters. It means that the Gripens have not yet been manufactured. The concept of a “replacement” fighter is mainly rendered meaningless because this will require at least two years, even in the most optimistic scenario. It is reported that Sweden has approximately a dozen ready-made fuselages of the fighter planes in question, which would only require assembly and avionics. Additionally, the cost of acquiring ten new aircraft for Bulgaria will likely appear excessive in light of allocations for the two half-squadrons of F-16 Block 70.
The decision to select the winning aircraft is anticipated to impact Bulgaria’s defense capabilities substantially in the coming weeks. The initial aircraft is expected to be delivered by the end of the year. This decision is not solely about acquiring an aircraft; it is also about the future of Bulgaria’s defense strategy.