Following Donald Trump’s second inauguration as President of the United States, two different opinions on the future of science arose among American scientists. Silicon Valley tech companies, space enthusiasts, artificial intelligence (AI) experts, and others are hopeful about favorable policies for their areas in the next years, as well as opportunities for research and innovation.
Many other scientists, especially those in the fields of climate science, Earth sciences, and biomedicine, are worried about the potential reduction, deprioritization, or undermining of important research.
The American science magazine Nature published an article titled “What Trump 2.0 Means for Science: Likely Winners and Losers” (January 15, 2025).
During his first term in office, from 2017 to 2021, Trump promoted experimental COVID-19 treatments and ignored the dangers of climate change. He also attempted to reduce research spending several times, but Congress saved government organizations such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the National Research Foundation (NSF), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from the most severe cuts.
Researchers warn that subjects such as ecology and infectious diseases may face even bigger challenges in the coming four years. The Trump administration announced plans to minimize the number of “unelected bureaucrats” participating in regulatory formulation through the Department of Government Efficiency, a project led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk. This could include thousands of scientists from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Food and Drug Administration.
Bright Prospects for AI, Quantum Science, and Technology
Some fields of research and development (R&D) in the United States may have a more bright future under the incoming government. Experts cite space exploration and technologies as strategically important for the United States.
During Trump’s first term, his science advisor, Kelvin Droegemeier, prioritized assistance for “industries of the future” such as artificial intelligence, quantum information science (QIS), advanced manufacturing, cutting-edge communications, and biotechnology. Experts anticipate that these areas will continue to be a focus throughout Trump’s second term.
President Joe Biden also prioritized these fields during his tenure. Trump and Biden may disagree on almost everything, but when it comes to AI and quantum technologies, they are very similar, says Mohammed Soliman, director of the Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. AI and quantum technologies are the future frontiers in the US-China competition, and both sides understand this. It’s more than simply politics; it’s a technical weapons race.
In 2018, Congress and the Trump administration formed the National Quantum Initiative. A year later, Trump signed an executive order establishing the American AI Initiative to strengthen US leadership in AI while ensuring that industry regulation does not hinder innovation. By 2020, Trump stated his intentions to spend more than $1 billion establishing a dozen national AI and QIS research institutions.
Biden followed up with an executive order on AI in 2023, which mandated the establishment of the AI Safety Institute and a prototype National AI Research Resource to share computer capacity, databases, and algorithms with universities and small enterprises. The future of these efforts remains unknown. Trump has promised to remove Biden’s executive order, arguing it stifles AI innovation. The National Institute of Standards and Technology, which manages the AI Safety Institute, has previously faced federal funding cuts. Policy analysts predict Trump’s future orders will emphasize federal AI uses for national security and military goals.
Trump slammed Biden’s bipartisan 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which dedicated billions to encourage semiconductor production in the United States, claiming that tariffs on Chinese competitors might achieve the same result at no cost. According to Charles Wessner, a science and technology policy expert at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., Trump is unlikely to repeal the act, given its impact on local economies and job development.
Overall, Wessner expects “substantial stability” in technology R&D initiatives. However, some unpredictability remains, such as how immigration regulations may affect the flow of students and professionals into U.S. engineering and related disciplines.
Concerns over the AI Regulation
Experts express concerns about the potential consequences of allowing firms to self-regulate AI technologies. Nate Sharadin, a philosopher at the University of Hong Kong and research fellow at the nonprofit AI Safety Center in San Francisco, California, urges stronger government regulation of AI. This would have been extremely unlikely if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris had won, Sharadin claims. Under Trump, it is just a joke, he adds.
American Astronauts: Head to the Moon and Beyond
As space millionaires press Congress for increased funding for human missions, American astronauts are preparing to travel to the Moon and beyond.
NASA’s top objective is the Artemis program, which will deliver astronauts to the Moon. NASA has created a new heavy-lift rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS), as well as a crew capsule known as Orion. However, the SLS costs more than $4 billion for every launch and cannot be reused.
The Trump administration may urge Congress to abolish NASA’s government-run rocket program in favor of commercial launch vehicles created by private corporations such as SpaceX, led by Musk, who has made large campaign contributions to Trump.
NASA’s unmanned Artemis I spacecraft traveled around 130 kilometers from the Moon in November 2022. However, President Trump may make dramatic modifications to the agency’s lunar mission.
According to some researchers and space industry professionals, such a transition would be a significant shake-up for Artemis, but it may eventually benefit NASA. NASA’s Artemis ambitions have fallen behind schedule. It flew an uncrewed test flight of the Space Launch System (SLS) in November 2022 but postponed its November 2024 mission to launch astronauts on the rocket until April 2026. They have also postponed their plans to land people on the Moon until at least mid-2027.
If confirmed, billionaire and private astronaut Jared Isaacman, Trump’s nominee for NASA administrator, may urge for significant reforms.
Isaacman funded SpaceX to launch him on two commercial space missions and has blasted government-contracted projects for wasting money and delaying completion.
Meanwhile, China’s aspirations to send astronauts to the Moon provide urgency to Trump’s “America First” strategy. In 2017, his administration announced that humans would return to the Moon by 2024.
NASA’s Mars plans could accelerate under Trump
NASA may accelerate its plans to send men to Mars in the 2040s. Elon Musk has voiced a great ambition for humanity to settle on Mars, and he will most certainly try to persuade NASA to send SpaceX’s Starship there sooner. As a result, NASA may be under pressure to complete its lunar missions rapidly before shifting its focus to Mars. Laura Forczyk, executive director of Astralytical, a space consultancy organization in Palm Bay, Fla., believes there will be a Moon landing.
It is yet uncertain how NASA’s research projects would fare under Trump. Isaacman has previously expressed support for space science. He included 36 experiments in his most recent trips and plans to get permission from NASA in 2022 to deploy a SpaceX rocket to augment the Hubble Space Telescope’s decreasing orbit. NASA, on the other hand, is a major sponsor of Earth science research, and those programs may suffer cuts if Trump keeps his promise to curtail climate research.
Tough Times for Climate Scientists
Climate and environmental researchers are prepared for the worst. Trump is anticipated to eliminate or weaken laws governing dangerous chemicals, greenhouse gases, and other pollutants, claiming that they harm the economy. Attempts to reduce budget and staff are anticipated to disproportionately affect the EPA, but environmental research projects at other agencies, such as NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), may also be targeted.
Trump may begin by attempting to decrease agency budgets, which would necessitate congressional action. During Trump’s first term, lawmakers backed the EPA, but political circumstances have evolved, with many Republicans now backing Musk’s proposals for significant cuts in federal spending.
Trump’s nominee to lead the EPA, New York Congressman Lee Zeldin, is a longtime ally with a mixed record of supporting EPA funds and projects. Political observers anticipate that Zeldin if confirmed by the Senate, will reduce the agency’s workforce and relax pollution laws.
Efforts to reduce staff may take time, but Russell Vought, Trump’s appointee to lead the influential Office of Management and Budget during his first administration, has stated that the goal from the start will be to “traumatize” EPA scientists and staff, making them feel like “villains” so they won’t want to come to work.
Challenges of Undoing Climate Investments
It may be more difficult for the future Trump administration to reverse big climate expenditures, such as those for electric vehicle infrastructure and carbon capture and storage technology. Congress passed these measures during Biden’s administration in 2021 and 2022, and we expect them to reach more than $1 trillion by 2032.
However, Trump’s appointment of oil industry representative Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy (DoE) is likely to bring about changes. Thomas Hochman, the head of infrastructure policy at the American Innovation Fund in San Francisco, suggests that Wright may prioritize federal investments in the Department of Energy’s numerous sustainable energy demonstration projects.
How Musk’s Partnership with Trump Could Shape US Science
The collaboration between Elon Musk and Donald Trump might have far-reaching consequences for research in the United States and elsewhere.
Many analysts believe that the Trump administration will have difficulties in seeking to reduce climate investments that are already benefiting businesses and communities in Republican-controlled states. For example, energy businesses stand to benefit from investments in carbon capture and clean hydrogen generation, which can be used as alternative fuels in transportation and other applications. Climate activists, on the other hand, warn that the only way to halt global warming is to phase out fossil fuels, despite Trump’s pledge to do the opposite.
The Paris Agreement and Global Climate Impacts
Donald Trump plans to remove the United States from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement for the second time. His government completed this process in 2020, but President Biden rejoined the treaty. Policy experts believe that another US departure could weaken pressure on other countries, notably China, to advance their own climate measures. However, energy experts are concerned about how Trump’s promise to slap tariffs on imports from China and Mexico could disrupt the world’s transition to sustainable energy.
Possible Changes in Public Health Policy
Trump has selected Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), a roughly $2 trillion agency that oversees the NIH, FDA, and CDC. Kennedy, whose nomination requires Senate confirmation, has promised to “make America healthy again” by tackling the core causes of chronic diseases, removing hazardous substances from the environment, and combating corporate malfeasance.
Kennedy’s capacity to achieve these objectives is dubious, given the absence of a unified healthcare system in the United States and the federal government’s limited power over local health policy decisions, such as water fluoridation and school vaccine requirements, both of which Kennedy has condemned. However, Trump has promised to give Kennedy complete control over health policy. As HHS secretary, Kennedy would wield significant power over drug and vaccine regulation, healthcare payments, biomedical research funding, and public health initiatives.
Notably, Kennedy’s vision does not include a clear strategy for enhancing the country’s readiness for infectious disease outbreaks. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association in Washington, D.C., points out that during Kennedy’s presidential campaign in 2023, he advocated an eight-year ban on infectious disease research at the National Institutes of Health to emphasize chronic illnesses such as diabetes and obesity.
Vaccine Safety and FDA Oversight
Kennedy, a long-time anti-vaccine campaigner, has questioned the FDA’s vaccine clearance process while stating that he does not seek to limit public access to vaccines. Some of his proposed measures, such as expanded vaccine safety testing, which may necessitate additional staffing or financing, contrast with Elon Musk’s efforts to streamline government operations by reducing federal bureaucracy and spending.
Structural Changes to NIH
Republican lawmakers have indicated a readiness to explore big structural reforms at the NIH, such as integrating its 27 institutes and centers or tightening regulation of research involving high-risk pathogens or national security. This increased examination could address long-standing questions about the agency’s efficiency and how the world’s largest public biomedical research sponsor should better deploy its money.
Musk’s Impact on Biomedicine and Innovation
Elon Musk’s influence on the new government could have an impact on biological developments, particularly his advocacy for innovation. For example, Musk has questioned the slow rate of medicine approvals. His firm, Neuralink, has made advances in brain-computer interface technology; however, there have been questions raised regarding the company’s secrecy around this technology.
Musk’s ambition for reducing government processes may clash with Kennedy’s suggested improvements, which could necessitate increased federal resources. However, their mutual emphasis on innovation has the potential to result in innovative ideas in healthcare and beyond.