In coming years, Russia’s civil aviation industry is poised to experience a significant transformation influenced by geopolitical dynamics, internal strategic objectives, and complex technological obstacles. One of the fundamental elements of the government’s new aviation policy is a major increase in the proportion of domestically manufactured aircraft within the fleets of Russian airlines. By 2030, it is anticipated that this proportion will reach 50 percent, indicating that one in every two aircraft operated by Russian carriers should be of domestic manufacture. This objective is outlined in official government documentation and is progressively being emphasized within economic and aviation sectors as a strategic priority.
The Starting Point: From 19% to 50%
As of the start of 2026, Russian airlines maintain a total fleet of approximately 1,100 aircraft, with approximately 19 percent manufactured domestically. According to government policies, this proportion is expected to increase to 30 percent by 2028, and subsequently double to 50 percent by 2030.
This represents an exceedingly ambitious objective considering the historical development of the Russian aviation sector and the challenging economic and technological circumstances that have arisen in the wake of Western sanctions and the termination of collaboration with foreign aircraft manufacturers.
Why This Goal Emerged: Key Drivers
The decision to prioritize domestic aircraft within the aviation fleet is influenced by multiple interconnected factors.
Sanctions and the Collapse of Western Support
Following the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, Western aircraft manufacturers and suppliers—primarily Boeing and Airbus—discontinued the delivery of new aircraft, spare parts, and technical support to Russia. Previously, Western-manufactured aircraft constituted the core of Russian commercial aviation.
The sanctions not only stopped new deliveries but also compromised the long-term airworthiness of existing fleets. Lacking access to certified spare parts, software updates, and maintenance services, the operation of Western aircraft has become progressively more complex and dangerous. Consequently, the requirement to replace or counterbalance foreign aircraft has shifted from a strategic choice to a practical necessity.
Losses Within the Domestic Fleet
According to Dmitry Yadrov, the director of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, Russian airlines could potentially lose 109 foreign-built aircraft and 230 domestically manufactured aircraft by 2030. The majority of these losses are anticipated to relate to the SSJ100 Superjet, which is powered by the SaM146 engine developed in collaboration with French partners.
Following the end of collaboration with European manufacturers, the maintenance and refurbishment of these engines became exceedingly challenging. Consequently, aircraft previously categorized as “domestic” are now progressively regarded as operationally vulnerable.
Given the current scope of the Russian airline fleet, these projected losses would substantially reduce the number of domestically produced aircraft in operation, thereby generating an urgent requirement for extensive fleet replacement.
Import Substitution as a Policy of the State
The initiative to increase domestic aircraft manufacturing is a component of a comprehensive state strategy aimed at import substitution. The Russian government has emphasized technological sovereignty across various sectors, with aviation emerging as one of the most politically and economically sensitive domains.
Officials have underscored that expanding the proportion of domestically manufactured aircraft is not just a reaction to sanctions but a strategic long-term initiative designed to reduce structural reliance on foreign technology and to strengthen Russia’s industrial foundation.
Which Aircraft Are Expected to Drive the Growth?
Government statements and policy documents identify several aircraft models as the core elements of the future Russian fleet.
MC-21
The MC-21, a state-of-the-art narrow-body aircraft, represents one of the flagship initiatives in Russian civil aviation. Intended to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families, it is designed to operate on domestic and regional itineraries.
The aircraft has been extensively redesigned to substitute foreign systems with domestically manufactured components, including engines, avionics, and composite materials. Nevertheless, the certification procedure has encountered recurring delays, thereby postponing the commencement of mass production to a later date.
SJ-100 (Superjet New Model)
The SJ-100, also referred to as Superjet New, is a heavily modified variant of the original SSJ100, engineered to reduce foreign reliance. It is equipped with Russian-manufactured engines and onboard systems and is designed to salvage the Superjet program from the repercussions of disrupted international collaboration.
Test flights have already been conducted; however, the aircraft has not yet obtained complete certification. Industry analysts emphasize that its performance will be crucial given that regional aviation relies significantly on aircraft within this category.
Il-114-300 and Il-96-300
The Il-114-300, a turboprop aircraft intended for regional and remote routes, is anticipated to serve a significant role in linking Russia’s extensive and sparsely inhabited areas. The Il-96-300, a wide-body long-haul aircraft, is designed for governmental, strategic, and limited commercial operations.
Both programs are still in the testing and certification phases, which raises concerns regarding production timelines and scalability.
Tu-214
The Tu-214, an upgraded variant of the Soviet-era Tu-204, is currently the only domestically manufactured aircraft produced in limited quantities. In the previous year, merely one aircraft was finalized, underscoring the disparity between production objectives and actual achievement.
The Extent of the Challenge
To attain a 50 percent domestic market share by 2030, Russia would need to incorporate a minimum of 500 newly manufactured domestically produced aircraft into airline fleets. This indicates an estimated production of approximately 100 aircraft annually, commencing almost immediately.
This objective aligns closely with previous statements made by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, who in January 2024 outlined plans to manufacture over 600 aircraft entirely built in Russia by 2030. Although the figures are theoretically consistent, the industrial capacity necessary to maintain such output remains a significant unresolved issue.
Unmanned Aviation as a Parallel Priority
Alongside crewed aircraft, the government is exerting considerable focus on unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Currently, drones manufactured in Russia constitute approximately 43 percent of the domestic market. The objective is to increase this figure to exceed 50 percent by 2028 and to reach 70 percent by 2030.
This illustrates a broader recognition that aviation sovereignty involves more than passenger aircraft, extending to cargo drones, surveillance platforms, and dual-use technologies with both civilian and military applications.
Industrial and Technological Challenges
Although the roadmap is ambitious, the Russian aviation sector encounters significant limitations.
Certification Delays and Engine Supply Shortages
Major aircraft programs continue to lack certification, thereby constraining airlines’ capacity to strategize fleet replacements. Exacerbating the problem, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has amended engine production schedules for 2025–2026, reducing their targets. Instead of the initially scheduled 192 engines, manufacturers are now anticipated to supply only 128.
Consequently, the estimated aircraft output has been reduced by approximately 1.5 times, raising questions regarding the achievability of short-term production objectives.
Production Capacity and Staffing Limitations
Russia’s aviation manufacturing facilities necessitate comprehensive modernization to facilitate large-scale serial production. Supply channels must be rebuilt nearly from the ground up, while deficits in skilled labor and sophisticated machinery keep stalling progress.
Simultaneously, sanctions limit access to international markets, equipment, and technical collaboration, thereby increasing the cost and duration of domestic development.
Economic and Strategic Importance
The effort to increase domestic aircraft manufacturing has implications that extend well beyond the aviation sector itself. Aircraft manufacturing fosters the development of numerous related industries, such as engine production, electronic systems, materials science, and maintenance services.
If effective, the program has the potential to generate thousands of employment opportunities and enhance Russia’s technological ecosystem. In the long term, this may also enable Russia to re-establish a presence in certain international markets through competitively priced, entirely domestically produced aircraft designs.
Opportunities and Challenges
The path toward 2030 is filled with uncertainty. Key risks involve ongoing certification delays, inadequate funding, engine manufacturing constraints, and the expedited retirement of aging aircraft.
Simultaneously, the demand for air travel is anticipated to persist in its growth, exerting further pressure on an already overextended fleet. To address the situation, airlines are intending to reintroduce stored Soviet-era and foreign-built aircraft into service during 2026–2027 as a provisional measure.
Final Remarks
The initiative to increase the proportion of domestically manufactured aircraft in Russian airline fleets to 50 percent by 2030 constitutes one of the most ambitious industrial endeavors in contemporary Russian history. It is not simply an aviation policy but a fundamental element of a comprehensive strategy focused on achieving technological self-sufficiency and economic stability.
The success of this objective will depend on the industry’s capacity to address serious structural challenges, expand production capabilities, and deliver certified aircraft within the scheduled timeframe. Success would signify an important milestone for Russian civil aviation; failure would highlight the constraints of industrial sovereignty within a highly complex and globally interconnected sector.