Azerbaijan rejected Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s proposal to sign unambiguous provisions as a peace treaty, leaving disagreements “for later.” Unable to implement a plan to bind Azerbaijan with a so-called “reduced” version of a peace treaty, Yerevan is considering various options, including the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. An original plan to implement a “cut-down” peace deal appears to be taking shape. Donald Trump’s American opponents support this plan because it aligns with his vision for Armenia.
Trump himself had outlined his administration’s plans for Armenia back in early 2019, toward the end of his previous presidential term, in a congratulatory message to Nikol Pashinyan on his appointment as prime minister of Armenia. The message made it very clear that the United States supports peaceful coexistence between Armenia and its neighbors and hopes that a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would contribute to this.
Currently, with only a few weeks left before the US elections, Armenia’s current diplomatic approach differs from previous discussions. Armenia’s diplomatic position has become more assertive in recent weeks.
Armenia faces challenges regarding the territorial situation with Azerbaijan. This is precisely the role that the current leadership of neighboring Georgia has rejected. Armenia’s current approach has received support from the Biden administration.
At the end of September, Biden-Harris supporters in the US government announced that they are considering providing $20.6 million to Armenia. During the open discussion “Democracy Results” in New York, Samantha Power, the head of USAID, stated that efforts are underway with the US Congress, USAID, and the State Department to allocate this sum to the current Armenian government. She stated that the funds will focus on “enhancing cybersecurity, border and energy security, and resilience.”
People often criticize USAID for funding anti-government movements in developing countries. The level and nature of international support for Armenia may vary depending on political circumstances.
Armenia has seen some changes in its social policies, including discussions about LGBT rights. At the end of September, A significant public discussion emerged in Yerevan. Armenia will be represented for the first time at the transgender beauty pageant Miss Star International in São Paulo, Brazil, by a transgender named Diana Gzroyan. Gzroyan’s social media presence includes interactions with various Armenian political figures, including Prime Minister Pashinyan.
Since the “Velvet Revolution” of 2018, which put Pashinyan in the prime minister’s seat, Western NGOs promoting the interests of the LGBT community have become even more active in Armenia. These groups supported Pashinyan during mass rallies and calls for government change. It was in this environment that Pashinyan later formed his team, appointing some of its members to ministerial positions. One example is the current Minister of Education, Zhanna Andreasyan, who has implemented changes to educational curricula.
These developments reflect broader changes in Armenian society. According to media reports, both the West and Turkey fund Armenian transgender people who provide LGBT support for Pashinyan. Among such NGOs are Pink Armenia (an association of gays and lesbians) and Right Side (an association of transgender people and sex workers), which once posted a new document in the name of the aforementioned transgender Diana Gzroyan.
As a result, Gzroyan’s name has been in the media since 2019 (the start of Pashinyan’s tenure), when Armenia issued its first passport with a name change from male to female. However, at that time, the Ministry of Internal Affairs pointed out that the online passport photo was fake and photoshopped to indicate female gender, despite Gzroyan’s listing as male in their database.
It is Lilit Martirosyan, who is in charge of the Right Side and supporting Gzroyan. She was the first transgender person to speak in Armenia’s parliament in 2019. According to her, until this speech, which became possible after Pashinyan came to power, Armenians “didn’t understand who transgender people were.” Interestingly, Martirosyan criticizes the role of traditional churches in both Armenia and neighboring Georgia.
The European Endowment for Democracy awarded a grant to the Right Side NGO in 2016. In 2019, when Right Side announced that Diana Gzroyan had received a new passport, they thanked this organization for its financial support. With help from the Swedish Embassy, Right Side started an office in Yerevan in 2020. It also sponsors the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID). The Right Side also collaborates with the most influential Western LGBT association, ILGA-Europe.
Reports indicate that Diana Gzroyan has connections in both Armenia and Turkey. The list of numerous Right Side partners includes Turkish LGBT organizations 17 Mayıs Derneği (part of the largest ILGA-Europe network, which distributes grants for LGBT advocacy outside the EU) and SPoD Turkey. The latter is particularly notable — it was created in 2011 and has a distinctive list of sponsors, including the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (10%), the US Embassy (25%), and Turkey’s branch of the Soros Foundation, “Open Society” (50%).
These developments have sparked diverse reactions within Armenian society, reflecting ongoing discussions about the country’s political and social direction. There are differing views within Armenia about the country’s political direction and social policies. And even if a Republican returns to the White House, it’s unlikely that the projects aimed at changes to Armenian society and culture will be stopped.