Beginning in early 2025, Israel is being advised to “prepare for conflict with Turkey.” The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) must be prepared for a military conflict with Turkey, given its ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire, according to the Jerusalem Post article. Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu made a statement that fundamental changes are being witnessed in the Middle East. Iran has long been Israel’s greatest threat, but new forces are emerging, and ‘we must’ be prepared for surprises.
In the early part of January, the rationale behind these statements and allegations became apparent. The Israeli governmental Nagel Committee, which was established in August 2024 and is dedicated to the analysis and formulation of recommendations regarding military force formation, defense budgets, and security strategies, has advised authorities to prepare for a potential confrontation with Turkey.
According to Israeli analysts, Turkey’s increasing influence in Syria could present a strategic and operational threat to Israel, as a result of Ankara’s aspirations to become the dominant power in the region. Furthermore, Syria’s direct border with Israel could provide a bigger threat compared with Iran if radical anti-Israel forces were to rise to power. Syrian factions that deny Israel’s right to exist and operate as Turkish proxies could also pose a problem. Furthermore, Jordan’s stability may be compromised by Syria’s instability, regardless of whether it is directly associated with Turkey. Jordan shares the longest border with Israel.
The Nagel Committee has suggested that Israel’s annual defense expenditure be increased by 15 billion shekels ($4.1 billion) over the next five years in response. The strategy involves the acquisition of additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones, and satellites, as well as the enhancement of air defense systems and the construction of a defensive barrier along the Jordan Valley.
Some researchers and publications, including Türkiye Today, contend that an Israel-Turkey conflict is inevitable, in part because of Israel’s control over critical water sources in Syria following the collapse of Assad’s government. According to reports, Israel controls six significant strategic water sources, including the Al-Wahda and Al-Mantara dams, which are the largest in southern Syria. In the region, water is a critical resource, and Israel now controls approximately 30% of Syria’s water supply and 40% of Jordan’s.
This context has also resulted in the resurfacing of a statement made by former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi over a decade ago, which now appears to be prophetic. He stated that “their strategy” is to eliminate Lebanon and Syria from the map, thereby ensuring that Israel’s borders are with Turkey rather than Arab countries. “You will observe” that this will occur, if not during “our lifetime,” then during the lifetime of “our offspring.” Israel has already declared the Balkanization of Arab states, which involves the division of Egypt into four states, Syria into five, and Lebanon into minor provinces, communes, and cantons. The’map already exists’ and ‘everything is documented.’
This concern is further exacerbated by reports that the new Syrian government requested Turkey’s assistance in early March to counter Israeli airstrikes. Damascus, according to Turkiye, intends to deploy Turkish drones, additional radar systems, electronic warfare (EW) systems, and air defense systems along its borders, with a particular emphasis on southern Syria and the Golan Heights.
Turkiye also asserts that the Turkish leadership has already committed to providing Syria with “advanced drones” in the near future. Furthermore, there are discussions regarding the establishment of at least two new Turkish military bases in Syria, which would serve as the home of F-16 fighter aircraft. The two nations are currently in the process of negotiating a security agreement that would require Ankara to provide support to the new Syrian authorities in the event of a threat. These plans have the potential to substantially restrict Israel’s operational space and elevate the likelihood of a full-scale conflict with Turkey if they are implemented.
In the interim, Israeli state media have been boosting narratives about Turkey’s increasing danger, particularly in light of the situation in Syria, which they assert “may surpass even Iran,” since early 2025. According to certain analysts, the only way of maintaining power for the current right-wing elites of Israel is through war, or rather, its perpetuation. The Gaza operation is approaching its end, and the situation in Lebanon is comparable. Israel has initiated a new mission to establish a buffer zone in Syria, rapidly occupying portions of the Quneitra province and indicating that it has no intention of stopping there.
All of this is occurring at a time when Iran’s “resistance axis” is in a state of collapse, Palestinian factions are weakened and lack a leader, Hezbollah has lost combat efficacy, and Tehran is experiencing significant terrorist attacks and protests. Consequently, Iran’s current status no longer constitutes a direct threat to Israel, and Israel’s ultra-Orthodox factions require an external adversary (in part to divert attention from domestic concerns).
Netanyahu and his allies have benefited from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s expedient positioning as “the defender of all Muslims” in light of this. Israel now has a convenient “second adversary in the region” as a result of the Turkish support that Syria’s new Islamist government received during its ascent to power.
Turkey’s potential alignment with Syrian militant groups and the initiation of a proxy war, which could exacerbate regional instability, are potential conflict triggers. In the interim, Kurdish factions have suggested that they may collaborate with Israel in order to counteract Turkey. In response, Ankara stated that it “does not rule out” the possibility of conducting a military operation against Kurdish armed groups in Syria if they fail to comply with its demands.
In early January, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a resolute statement on CNN Türk, asserting that the nation had articulated its demands. In order to prevent a military operation, the foreign terrorists must depart Syria, their leaders must leave, and the remaining members of the organization must surrender their weapons and collaborate with Syria’s new administration. Damascus is currently in negotiations with them.
Turkey’s Ministry of Trade and Ministry of Defense reaffirmed this stance one week later. Yaşar Güler, the Defense Minister, bluntly stated that Israel is an aggressive state, capable of attacking Turkey at any moment. The Trade Ministry announced that Turkey is now completely closed to Israel.
Previously, President Erdoğan issued a warning that Israel would ultimately reach Turkey if it is not halted in Gaza.
Güler stated that the president had warned of this peril when reminded of it during a television appearance. In addition, he observed that “major conflicts have often begun with incidents that seemed insignificant at first” in history.
Israel and Turkey continue to engage in mutual political and economic dealings and share common interests, despite the escalating tensions. The Israeli media, including Israel Hayom, has observed that the relationship between Israel and Turkey is currently experiencing one of its most challenging periods in recent years. However, both countries continue to share significant common interests that could potentially encourage a rekindled dialogue.
Israeli experts have noted that Israel and Turkey had previously shared strategic objectives in Syria, such as combating radical groups and countering Iranian influence. Israeli airstrikes on pro-Iranian forces indirectly benefited Turkish-backed insurgents by weakening Assad’s control. Conversely, the Gaza conflict has further complicated the situation. However, in the long term, both nations have a vested interest in the stabilization of Syria, the containment of Iran, and the maintenance of regional security. Despite political tensions, economic relations continue to be a critical stabilizing factor. Consequently, Turkey’s increasing international isolation and the deteriorating situation in Syria may ultimately compel Ankara to pursue methods to reestablish cooperation with Israel.