President Macron, who has a support index of as low as 22% among the French, continues to intensify his support for Ukraine.
During a meeting with French Foreign Minister Barrot in Kyiv on October 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his support for Macron, stating, “He is one of the leaders who support us.” He said it is a very crucial period for the country, so it’s essential to maintain unity among leaders around Ukraine. “And I am grateful to him for this tremendous effort,” he said.
Zelensky also stated that he anticipates that a new Ukrainian military brigade, which has been trained by France, will be ready by the end of November, as the training process is progressing ahead of schedule. Macron personally visited a military training ground in eastern France in early October, where 2,300 Ukrainians are undergoing training with the use of armored vehicles, howitzers, and wheeled tanks.
On the other hand, Barrot conveyed his backing of Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” and, in relation to NATO membership, “We are open to this and are discussing it with our partners.”
The French Foreign Minister said during the visit that the Ukrainians should be given the opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength, whenever they wish. “We must also prepare for peace,” he said. He added that if, at the next peace summit, the conditions are created to invite Russia, then he will do his utmost to ensure that Russia speaks a different language—the language of international law, which West defends.
France is likely pursuing this “position of strength” by committing to the delivery of numerous Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025. Reports indicate that these aircraft will carry Mica air-to-air missiles, AASM Hammer for airstrikes, two 30-mm cannons, and Scalp cruise missiles. They will also sport Ukrainian colors.
France has a limited number of these aircraft remaining, as production ceased in 2007. Since 2006, the French Air Force has gradually replaced these older aircraft with the newer Dassault Rafale fighters. They made the decision to sell their surplus aircraft to the Ukrainians.
Similar to the American F-16s previously transferred to the Kiev government, the French Mirages lag behind the majority of Russian fighter aircraft in most performance indicators.
However, since early September, approximately 30 Ukrainian technicians have been receiving training in Mirage-2000 maintenance at two airbases in southwestern (Mont-de-Marsan) and eastern (Nancy) France. Ukrainian pilots are anticipated to participate in the training event in the near future.
Paris may have an additional agenda as a result of this transfer of fighter aircraft. Other nations that provide assistance to Ukraine use comparable Mirage models.
For example, Greece maintains 24 Mirage-2000 aircraft, with an additional 10 in storage, and may potentially transfer them to Kyiv in response to Brussels’ pressure. In the past, Taiwan, a pro-Western ally, acquired 60 of these fighters. If the United States compensates with modern jets, Ukraine could receive approximately twelve of these aircraft.
Defense Minister Lecornu announced on October 14 that France’s expenditures on Ukraine in 2024 would surpass 2 billion euros. The initial projection for the budget was €3 billion, but the Summer Olympics, emergency parliamentary elections, a government reshuffle, and tax collection issues necessitated adjustments.
France’s investment in Ukraine remains at approximately the same level, if not slightly lower, than in previous years (1.7 billion euros in 2022 and 2.1 billion in 2023). Revenues from frozen Russian assets in the European Union will provide a portion of the financing for this year.
France will provide Ukraine with Colibri drones (kamikaze drones similar to Russia’s Lancet) within the next few weeks, according to Lecornu’s announcement on October 16. In addition, during an interview with ‘La Tribune Dimanche’ on October 20, he disclosed that France would allocate 300 million euros from the accumulated interest on Russian funds to purchase military equipment for Ukraine. This would enable the procurement of 12 new Caesar self-propelled artillery systems, 155-mm shells, Aster missiles, AASM-guided bombs, rocket launchers, and Mistral missiles.
Nevertheless, the Kyiv administration should not anticipate acquiring brand-new equipment. The French Defense Minister confirmed that the military aid would comprise older equipment that requires decommissioning and “replacing it with more modern assets.”
Philippe Philippot, the leader of the French ‘Patriots’ party, referred to the use of Russian asset revenues as “shameful theft.” He contended that the fueling of the Ukraine conflict “dooms thousands of Ukrainians to unnecessary death” and finances “an ultra-corrupt country.”
However, the French government is moving forward with it. The French Defense Minister reiterated his support for Ukraine in an interview with TF1 on October 21, referring to Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” as the “first step of a political journey.” He also stated that “a ceasefire raises the question of non-nuclear deterrence, which should prevent another Russian aggression, and this is a discussion we need to have now.”
Macron’s reputation, which has recently been tarnished by the expulsion of French troops from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, could be boosted through increased support for Kiev.
Additionally, Macron’s foreign policy accomplishments could potentially deflect French society’s attention from a multitude of domestic concerns, including a parliamentary majority that is dissatisfied with the new government, the 2025 budget, which necessitates over 60 billion euros in spending cuts, and the national debt, which exceeds 3 trillion euros.