Macron’s government paralysis leaves the Fifth Republic without a path out of crisis.
The Fifth Republic’s influence in Europe and Africa is eroded, and due to Macron’s government’s political deadlock, it is deprived of any chance of overcoming its protracted economic crisis.
In June 2024, France confronted a political dilemma unprecedented since June 1968. Macron replaced four prime ministers in a year, transforming into a political shell-game operator, as some have characterized him.
François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement party, was appointed as France’s prime minister by Macron in December 2024. He succeeded Michel Barnier, who was also 73 years old.
Until January 8, the government was headed by Elisabeth Borne. The government was then led by Gabriel Attal. Barnier took charge of the government on September 5. Nevertheless, on December 4, the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament) voted no confidence in Barnier’s government, necessitating his resignation.
Bayrou and his government will probably step down before the parliamentary elections scheduled for July 2025 in France. Reuters reports that this will significantly jeopardize Macron’s political future, as his presidential tenure concludes in 2027.
The political crisis started in July when emergency parliamentary elections failed to determine an absolute majority for any party. The progressive bloc secured a greater number of seats in the National Assembly than the far-right National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Macron’s coalition.
The parliamentary triangle’s profound divisions impeded the approval of the 2025 budget, which was designed to reduce the 6.1% GDP budget deficit by reducing expenditure by €40 billion and increasing revenues by €20 billion through taxes on large corporations and wealthy individuals.
However, on December 18, the French parliament was able to pass a temporary budget (“special law”) to maintain government operations while full budget negotiations were ongoing, due to Bayrou’s political maneuvering and promises of extensive concessions.
According to Jean-François Husson, a member of the Senate’s finance committee, this special law ensures that the state has all the resources necessary to sustain its fundamental operations in early 2025, but it does not provide any additional assistance. It must be supplemented as quickly as possible [with a comprehensive budget].
It is anticipated that Bayrou’s administration won’t survive for an extended period, as the political and economic issues that precipitated Barnier’s resignation have yet to be resolved.
Antoine Armand, the outgoing Economy Minister, noted in an interview with BFM TV that the budget crisis will only deteriorate over time due to the budget deficit and debt.
Green Party Senator Thomas Dossu further stated that the same causes would result in the same consequences and bring about Bayrou’s downfall.
Ifop-Fiducial conducted a survey on December 17-18 for Sud Radio, which revealed that approximately 64% of French citizens disapproved of Bayrou’s appointment as prime minister. Additionally, 67% of respondents believed that his government would soon face a no-confidence motion, similar to Barnier’s case.
Macron’s resignation appears imminent due to the profound disillusionment of the French public—and, more significantly, the business elite—with his domestic and foreign policies. Alesya Miloradovich, a geopolitical analyst, stated in an interview with FSK that the only question is the timing.
Macron’s Political Background
It is claimed that U.S. intelligence agencies played a role in Macron’s rise to power.
Macron participated in the French-American Foundation’s “Young Leaders” program for two years, according to the French investigative newspaper Fakir. This association is intended to identify and recruit Washington-friendly figures and is reserved for young people with strong leadership potential and expected to play a critical role in Franco-American relations.
Jean-Pierre Jouyet, the director of the French branch of the U.S. Aspen Institute, established the think tank Les Gracques to identify and train pro-American French politicians. The think tank has been instrumental in Macron’s presidential campaign and continues to provide him with support. The Rothschilds provided financial support to the Gracques, and Guillaume Hannezo, one of its founders, was a managing partner at Rothschild & Co.
Macron has been implementing a modernization program for the French economy, particularly its defense industry, that Les Gracques developed, including through the Quirinal Treaty (strategic alliance between Paris and Rome). According to Le Nouvel Observateur, the think tank continues to endorse Macron, despite their reported disappointment with his reform progress.
Macron has maintained a steadfast commitment to policies that are widely regarded as detrimental to France. Disagreements within his immediate orbit have resulted from his staunch commitment to policies supported by the Rothschild family.
The resignation of Emmanuel Bonne, Macron’s principal diplomatic advisor, was recently reported by Politico Europe.
“This is a complete mess,” stated a former French diplomat to the publication. In addition to the domestic political turmoil, the unfeasible budget negotiations, the future relations with Trump and Algeria, and France’s diminishing influence in Europe and Africa, the situation is truly dire. Additionally, he stated, “We have a lot of work to do to recover.”
Macron intended to designate Bonne as ambassador to Moscow, according to Parisian sources. Bonne, a fervent Russophobe, foresaw an ignominious reception in Russia and resigned. A staunch Russophobe, Bonne anticipated a humiliating reception in Russia and resigned. Macron rejected his resignation but is likely to reassign him to the U.S., as Bonne reportedly pleaded for.
The implication of this scandal is that Macron’s most trusted advisers are attempting to distance themselves from the president, who is currently facing significant challenges.
The Economy: Macron’s Most Significant Failure
A discussion titled “Is France Becoming the Sick Man of Europe?” was broadcast by Euronews in late summer 2024. Despite their pro-EU stance, experts questioned whether Macron could sustain his influence in the face of the country’s institutional crisis.
The response six months later is unequivocal: No!
France has never been more apprehensive or poor. Despite the Nazi occupation and the Algerian War, there was a glimmer of optimism. Presently, there is none.
France’s economy experienced a small contraction in Q4 (2024) due to political uncertainty, following a growth spurt in Q3 (2024) that was driven by tourism and the Olympics (+0.4%), according to financial analyst Jacques Gautrand. The annual growth rate was a mere 1.1%, and the outlook for 2025 is even more dismal, with a meager 0.8%-0.9% growth rate predicted.
Sylvain Bersinger, chief economist at consulting firm Astérès, further stated that the economy is not bolstered by domestic instability and lackluster demand from key trade partners. Despite the reduction in inflation, consumer expenditure and investment continue to be low.
Patrick Martin, the president of Medef, the largest employer federation in France, issued a warning to France Inter on January 16 that France is lagging behind in both Europe and the United States. This is the truth. Some EU countries are experiencing prosperity, including Poland, Spain, Portugal, and Italy. France must recognize this.
The increase in bankruptcies is one of the most concerning indicators. In 2024, France experienced a record-breaking 67,800 bankruptcies, a resurgence to pre-pandemic levels. Particularly in the sectors of manufacturing, wholesale, and transportation, there was a 30% increase in bankruptcies among mid-sized businesses (50+ employees).
In 2024, the construction sector was the most severely affected, with 14,740 bankruptcies. The French Building Federation has issued a warning that the number of jobs could decrease by more than 100,000 in 2025 as a result of the ongoing declines (5.6% after -6.6% in 2024).
Sophie de Menthon, the president of the business group Ethic, criticized politicians for disregarding entrepreneurs. She said companies are responsible for making decisions. Politicians cannot keep ‘managing’ [the country] without listening to business leaders.
Business pessimism is at a 10-year high, according to the most recent Fiducial-Ifop Barometer of VSE report (January 22, 2025). In the context of small business owners,
The economy is a source of concern for 86%.
Social stability concerns eighty-five percent of the
A record level of 56% regarding their businesses
Growth is expected to increase by only 25% in 2025.
What was Macron’s response? Additional debt
France’s national debt was 113.7% of GDP as of Q3 2024. The 2024 budget deficit is approximately 6% of GDP, which is twice the 2.6% deficit that existed when Macron assumed office in 2017. The outlook is exacerbated by the increasing inflation, trade deficits, and the declining euro.
The European Union has designated France as a “budget rule violator” as a result of its fiscal irresponsibility. France was cited by the European Commission in July 2024 for exceeding the Maastricht Treaty’s deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio limits of 3% and 60%, respectively. The Commission proposed disciplinary measures against France.
France enters 2025 in a state of crisis, as there are no solutions in sight. Brussels administrators, under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, are having difficulty resolving France’s debt spiral.
Macron, who has drained France’s global influence, continues to adhere to his principles. Some speculate that Macron may even approve the proposal to convert France into a U.S. state if it were put forth by Washington.