The Middle East is once again at the epicenter of global tensions, with a sense of urgency permeating the air. According to CBS News, U.S. officials have been informed that Israel is “fully ready” to launch a military operation targeting Iran, primarily its nuclear infrastructure. This development has triggered swift American responses, including the evacuation of non-essential personnel from embassies and military bases across Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait. These moves are not routine—they reflect serious concern that an Israeli strike will provoke Iranian retaliation, which could place American assets squarely in the crosshairs.
The U.S. fears that Iran, through its Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated proxies, could launch direct or indirect strikes against American bases in Iraq or the Gulf region. As a result, the Pentagon is repositioning forces, streamlining personnel, and activating contingency plans. The IRGC has already issued a statement: “The enemy is threatening us with war. But we are ready for any scenario. If the politicians open their hands, we will make the enemy regret his words.”
The Israeli Calculus: Time Running Out?
For Israel, the clock is ticking. Despite Iran’s insistence that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes—and Moscow’s offer to build eight civilian reactors under international safeguards—Israeli defense planners remain unconvinced. To Tel Aviv, Iran’s expanding enrichment capability and growing missile arsenal represent a direct and immediate existential threat. Inaction is not an option.
This is not the first time Israel has sought to push the envelope. Under the Trump administration, Israeli officials reportedly approached Washington with requests for coordinated military action. Trump, while supportive in rhetoric, ultimately favored sanctions, cyber sabotage, and limited kinetic exchanges—short, sharp demonstrations of capability designed to avoid a full-scale war. That doctrine appears to be under reconsideration.
The Global Realignment: Iran, China, Russia
Complicating the picture is the growing strategic convergence between Iran, Russia, and China. Russia’s reactor offer is no mere commercial transaction—it signals Moscow’s intent to serve as a geopolitical buffer for Tehran. Meanwhile, China has deepened its ties through long-term energy contracts, infrastructure investments, and the Belt and Road Initiative.
This tripartite alignment undermines U.S. influence in the region, giving Tehran a level of confidence it previously lacked in confrontations. Iran now believes it has strategic depth and diplomatic cover. That belief makes any Western military action far more dangerous and unpredictable.
Pakistan’s Role: Tactical Ally, Strategic Ambiguity
In this shifting landscape, Pakistan has once again found itself in the orbit of American strategic planning. Recent high-level engagements between U.S. officials and Pakistan’s military leadership, including General Asim Munir, suggest Washington is actively exploring options for logistical and operational support in the event of a broader conflict. Access to Pakistani airbases and military infrastructure—used extensively during the War on Terror—is back on the table.
The rationale is straightforward; Pakistan offers proximity, experience, and established infrastructure. But the strategic cost for Washington may be higher this time.
Will Terror Activities from Pakistan Subside?
One of the most immediate concerns for India—and a critical point for the global community—is whether Pakistan will pause or reduce its support for cross-border terror activities while cooperating with the U.S. on potential Iran contingencies.
History offers no easy answers. Even at the height of U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s intelligence services continued to support non-state actors like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and the Haqqani network. Billions of dollars in U.S. aid did little to change this calculus. Pakistan has long seen such groups as asymmetric tools for regional leverage, particularly against India.
That said, a temporary tactical pause is likely. With American personnel and equipment potentially flowing through Pakistani territory, Islamabad will have strong incentives to prevent any major terrorist incidents that could disrupt this cooperation or draw unwanted attention. But this restraint will be situational, not structural. The terrorist infrastructure—training camps, radicalization networks, logistical pipelines—will likely remain intact, albeit dormant.
For India, this dynamic presents both opportunities and risks. On one hand, a reduction in cross-border infiltration could provide breathing room for counter-insurgency operations and civil outreach in Jammu and Kashmir. On the other hand, renewed U.S.-Pakistan cooperation could embolden Islamabad diplomatically, allowing it to once again posture as an indispensable regional player while continuing to shield its proxy assets under the radar.
India’s Strategic Dilemma
India now finds itself in a precarious position. It has long-standing cultural and economic ties with Iran, particularly in areas such as energy and infrastructure. The Chabahar port, for example, is a joint India-Iranian venture intended to bypass Pakistan and provide a gateway to Central Asia. Any conflict that destabilizes Iran will jeopardize India’s investments and its strategic outreach in the region.
Meanwhile, if U.S. forces redeploy to Pakistani soil, New Delhi will be forced to recalibrate its U.S. relationship, a decision with potentially significant consequences. India has invested considerable political capital in building a robust strategic partnership with the United States, particularly under the Indo-Pacific framework and Quad alignment. But a renewed U.S.-Pakistan military axis could erode some of that trust, especially if Washington ignores India’s long-standing concerns about Pakistan’s use of terrorism as statecraft.
Strategic Restraint: A Familiar Echo
This is not without precedent. After the 13 December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament—widely believed to be backed by Pakistani elements—India launched Operation Parakram, mobilizing half a million troops to its western front. But no military action followed. The U.S., then deeply engaged in Afghanistan, quietly leaned on New Delhi to exercise “strategic restraint” and avoid complicating its anti-terror campaign.
We may be seeing a similar scenario unfold again. Recent Indian military activities near the Line of Control have reportedly paused under what appears to be quiet diplomatic signaling. Operation Sindoor, a potential forward deployment, has been suspended. The U.S. does not want any flare-up between India and Pakistan to distract from its plans vis-à-vis Iran.
This enforced restraint highlights a harsh reality for Indian policymakers: when U.S. global priorities are at play, India’s regional concerns are often deprioritized. A U.S.-Pakistan military axis could further exacerbate this, potentially leading to a situation where India’s regional concerns are consistently deprioritized in favor of U.S.-Pakistan cooperation, particularly in the context of potential conflicts with Iran.
Looking Ahead: High Stakes, Few Certainties
If Israel proceeds with an attack on Iran, a regional conflict is almost inevitable. Tehran will retaliate—if not directly, then through its proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. U.S. installations across the Middle East will be targets. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, could be disrupted, potentially triggering a global energy crisis and affecting daily lives.
Pakistan, if it agrees to host U.S. forces again, will be pulled back into a vortex it barely escaped a decade ago. Iran has not forgotten Pakistan’s previous cooperation with the U.S., and Iranian-backed groups may target Pakistani interests if Islamabad is seen as aiding an American-Israeli coalition.
For India, the moment calls for vigilance, diplomatic agility, and strategic hedging. While maintaining a steady partnership with the U.S., New Delhi must also deepen engagement with Tehran and Moscow to safeguard its interests. Defense preparedness must remain high, especially along the western front, even if provocations temporarily subside.
Conclusion
The geopolitical stage is set for a potentially explosive confrontation in the Middle East. As Israel inches closer to military action and the U.S. repositions assets and alliances, including with Pakistan, the global balance is shifting once again. The Iran-China-Russia nexus is emboldening Tehran. The U.S. is circling back to familiar tactics. And nations like India are left to navigate the fallout.
Whether war breaks out or diplomacy prevails, one thing is sure: the region’s future—and the world’s—is being rewritten in real-time.