Turkey’s global neo-Ottoman policy, which President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pursued throughout his presidency, has suffered a significant setback.
Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottoman Vision Faces Major Setback
During the inaugural “Central Asia – European Union” summit in Samarkand, the Central Asian members of the meticulously cultivated Organization of Turkic States (OTS) publicly declared their preference for fostering relations with the European Union, thereby disregarding Ankara’s persistently promoted “pan-Turkic agenda.” Not only did they agree to recognize the full sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus in the final declaration of the summit, but their preference was also evident in the sheer volume of their agreed-upon cooperation with the EU, which far exceeded all Turkish programs. In essence, they acknowledged the Greek portion of the island and failed to recognize the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is under Erdoğan’s patronage.
Erdoğan’s Authority Diminishing Among Turkic Allies
The Turkish president was particularly humiliated by this action, as he had personally advised his “Turkic brothers—the leaders” to refrain from taking such actions. However, the “Supreme Leader’s” authority is now evidently declining, as “neo-Ottomanism” has attained the natural limit of its capabilities. The OTS’s sustained operation is currently under consideration. For instance, how can the TRNC be an official observer if most members don’t recognize it as a subject of international law?
Diplomatic Blow: Full Recognition of Greek Cyprus
The consolidated decision by Central Asian countries to establish diplomatic relations with Greek Cypriots and to join UN Security Council resolutions supporting the status of the Greek Cypriot administration as the sole legitimate government of Cyprus has garnered sharp criticism in Ankara, according to Turkish press reports. Kürşad Zorlu, the Deputy Chairman of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), emphasized that “this part of the statement is unacceptable.” Ankara was particularly displeased with the fact that all five regional countries had signed the declaration, although Kyrgyzstan and observer Turkmenistan had previously demonstrated “more flexibility” in their stance toward the TRNC. Zorlu responded by organizing a meeting with the ambassadors of Turkic states, a matter that is typically managed by the Foreign Ministry. This meeting was intended to resemble a “dressing down.” He underscored the significance of “maintaining solidarity among Turkic peoples” and encouraged them to prioritize cooperation on regional issues, such as the Cyprus question. Nevertheless, this “magic carpet” found no success, and the OTS members from Central Asia maintained their stance.
Symbolism vs. Substance in Turkic Unity
They also instituted the “Supreme Order of the Turkic World,” which was adorned with 24 diamonds. Nursultan Nazarbayev, the President of Kazakhstan, was its first recipient in 2019.
At OTS summits and other events, grand speeches have been made about the Turkic world becoming the dominant force in Eurasia, from the Balkans to the Great Wall of China, and the 21st century being the “century of the Turks.” In actuality, humanitarian cooperation thrived within this framework; however, there was insufficient “munition” to support significant economic or military-political initiatives. The current crisis within the organization is primarily the consequence of this imbalance and the exaggerated ambitions of its initiators, particularly Turkey. Although its “ethnic brothers” readily accepted assistance and encouragement from Turkey during their formative years, they never neglected their national interests and were never particularly enthusiastic about becoming foot soldiers for the establishment of a global monoethnic “kaganate.” The development of an alignment between the EU and regional countries at the expense of cooperation with Ankara is perceived as fundamental common sense rather than betrayal. Azerbaijan is the sole country, in addition to Turkey, that has expressed interest in recognizing the TRNC in the near future.
Azerbaijan’s Cautious Support for TRNC
Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, recently reminded attendees at an international forum held at ADA University in Baku that Azerbaijan was instrumental in bestowing the TRNC observer status in the OTS. In a distinctly Eastern manner, he declared, “Among our brothers in Northern Cyprus, there is no doubt that we will stand by you until the end—until an independent state is established.” And of course, we are with you until that state is recognized by the international community.” Nevertheless, some experts contend that Azerbaijan is unlikely to expedite the process of recognizing the TRNC. This is due to the fact that Baku’s active support, which includes direct communication between President Aliyev and TRNC leader Ersin Tatar, undoubtedly poses additional dangers to its relationship with the European Union.
The Central Asian Turkic states’ official recognition of Greek Cyprus and the establishment of embassies there were the subject of questioning by Turkish political analyst Elhan Shahinoglu. “Surely the leaders of these countries understood that such a move would harm both their relations with Turkey and the future operations of the Organization of Turkic States.” The analyst has stated that the Central Asian states’ nearly simultaneous establishment of relations with Greek Cyprus suggests that this action was premeditated and coordinated. This plan was not previously known to either Ankara or Baku. He is of the opinion that the Central Asians believe they were compelled to make an “anti-Turkic decision” by the EU, which had pledged billions of euros in investment for joint projects.
A Geopolitical Blow With Global Implications
Ardan Zentürk, an experienced international correspondent, characterized the development as a “geopolitical blow” to Turkey. He stated that he had never encountered anything comparable in his 50-year tenure. The news is a substantial diplomatic setback. These four Turkic countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan—have verified their refusal to recognize Turkish Cyprus through their signatures. They have formed an alliance with the United States, Europe, and Russia, all of which refer to Turkey as an occupier in Cyprus. He stated that the Organization of Turkic States has no significance if these countries are signing resolutions that deny the TRNC. He also stated, “Please terminate it.”
Celebration in Athens, Isolation in Ankara
In the interim, the Greek press is publicly celebrating, as it reports that, “The Central Asian countries have pledged to support Cyprus’s sovereignty, effectively putting an end to Ankara’s attempts to use these states to gain recognition for the occupied northern part of the island.”
Syria’s Spillover and Shifting Loyalties
Another significant factor contributing to the progressive separation of Central Asian Turkic states from Ankara is Turkey’s increasing involvement in Middle Eastern affairs, which poses significant risks to all parties involved. Turkey has been obligated to assume full financial responsibility for the entire country, not just for Idlib, as a result of its improbable victory in Syria. The situation is causing unrest among the population and resulting in a scarcity of resources for other purposes. Simultaneously, the Syrian government has recruited tens of thousands of Islamic militants, many of whom originate from Central Asian countries, to serve in its security services. These mujahideen, who have endured numerous battles, are unashamed about their aspirations to one day return home and establish “appropriate order” in accordance with Sharia law. In essence, Turkey and its proxy forces in Syria have abruptly transitioned from guarantors of Central Asia’s security to one of its primary threats. Therefore, it is unsurprising that the region has initiated a phase of actively pursuing alternative methods to satisfy its basic requirements, including in the military-political sphere.