Yet another terror attack, this time in Pahalgam, has rocked Kashmir, timed, as before, with the visit of a high-profile U.S. dignitary. The pattern is chillingly familiar, and the objective is clear: disrupt peace, derail diplomacy, and send a message of defiance. Despite repeated lessons from past attacks, India continues to see security lapses in a region where history and geopolitics leave little room for error. This recent strike not only exposes operational gaps but threatens to unravel the fragile gains made in Kashmir’s tourism and development push. The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated.
The Recurring Pattern of Attacks
There’s a historical rhythm to these atrocities. Among the first clear examples was the Chattisinghpura massacre in 2000, which brutally killed 35 Sikhs during President Clinton’s visit. Kaluchak followed in 2002, targeting families of army personnel. Uri in 2016 shocked the nation and triggered India’s first publicly acknowledged surgical strikes. Pulwama in 2019, just before global attention to India-Pakistan tensions, resulted in 40 CRPF deaths.
Each incident coincided with an international diplomatic movement, suggesting that these attacks aren’t random. The timing of these attacks strategically challenges India’s global image and diplomatic engagement, especially with the United States. The message: Kashmir is volatile, unresolved, and unprepared for peace.
This most recent strike adds another grim entry to that list.
Geography of Violence: Known Terrain, Known Threats
The area where the latest attack occurred is not some distant, treacherous frontier. It is accessible on foot or by pony through known trails and dense forests. Locals, security forces, and even tourists traverse these paths. The vulnerability of this area underscores the importance of surveillance, route sanitization, and area domination.
It raises a thorny question: How did terrorists infiltrate such a well-trodden, semi-monitored space and carry out an attack with such precision? Either the surveillance was insufficient, or they disregarded the warnings—both scenarios are unacceptable.
The Pakistan Doctrine: Ideology Meets Strategy
Pakistan’s army chief recently addressed the Pakistani diaspora abroad, underlining that Muslims and Hindus are fundamentally different and that Kashmir remains Pakistan’s “raison d’être.” The statement isn’t just political rhetoric. It’s part of Pakistan’s military and ideological doctrine—keep Kashmir in turmoil, deny India peace, and internationalize the issue through violence.
Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) continues to provide support, sanctuary, and strategy to proxy terrorist groups. Despite being financially constrained, Pakistan has consistently prioritized the Kashmir issue, using asymmetric warfare as its weapon of choice.
The problem isn’t just across the border—it’s inside the minds of a military-political establishment that refuses to accept the ground reality: Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India.
India’s Options: Restraint, Retaliation—and the Right to Strike
India now faces a set of urgent decisions. The instinct for retaliation is natural and justified. But this moment demands more than a reaction—it requires strategic assertion.
India must exercise its sovereign right to strike at a time and place of its choosing. This battle is not about theatrics or headline-chasing. It is about restoring deterrence and dismantling Pakistan’s belief that it can bleed India without consequence.
Currently, Pakistan is not in a strong position. Its western border is a festering wound. Balochistan continues to boil with separatist unrest. The Pakistan Army is overstretched and dealing with serious challenges to its authority. Economically, the country is on life support and surviving on external bailouts and IMF terms. This is a rare window. Pakistan is unbalanced. Pakistan should be held accountable for its actions against Indian citizens.
A measured but forceful response—whether in the form of surgical strikes, covert ops, cyber disruption, or targeted elimination of key terror handlers—must be on the table. India cannot afford to allow the enemy to dictate the tempo. The choice of time and target must remain with India, and it must be decisive. The response must be measured and forceful, striking a balance between restraint and retaliation.
This action need not be immediate, but it must be inevitable. The clear message must be that those who orchestrate terror against Indian civilians will not go unpunished. And that message must resonate in Rawalpindi and beyond.
Tourism Under Threat: Strategic and Economic Ramifications
Tourists have rarely been the target in Kashmir, a fact that gave some sense of reassurance. This latest attack breaks that threshold. The signal is dangerous: if tourists aren’t safe, neither are local livelihoods, investments, or development efforts.
The government’s strategy of integrating Kashmir into India’s growth story hinges on tourism. In 2023, record numbers of tourists visited the Valley, and new hotels, roads, and infrastructure were rolled out with fanfare. This attack threatens to undo that progress.
Beyond economics, it is also a psychological attack—a message to the people of Kashmir that peace is an illusion and to the rest of India that normalcy is fragile.
Geo-Military and Geopolitical Dimensions
Militarily, this attack demands a reassessment of the counterinsurgency grid. With troop reductions in recent years and the focus shifting to hybrid threats like cyber warfare and drones, there may have been a perception that boots on the ground can be lightened. This assumption needs to be re-evaluated.
On the geopolitical front, the present is an opportunity for India to call out Pakistan’s duplicity on the global stage. Repeated evidence of ISI’s involvement in such attacks, coupled with Pakistan’s economic dependency on international loans, puts pressure on its patrons—especially the U.S., China, and Gulf states.
India must push for Pakistan’s designation as a state sponsor of terror. At the very least, aid and trade agreements with Pakistan must have strict anti-terror conditionalities.
Leadership Vacuum: Perception and Reality
At the time of the attack, the lieutenant governor was in Delhi, the prime minister was in Saudi Arabia, and the defense minister was in Lucknow. While it’s unreasonable to expect top leaders to be physically present during every incident, leadership visibility and swift communication are critical in moments of national crisis.
Optics matter. They shape public confidence, media narratives, and enemy assessments. In this case, the initial vacuum in visible response was noted, but it was soon corrected. Upon learning of the incident, the Prime Minister immediately spoke to the Union Home Minister, who in turn flew to Kashmir along with the Lieutenant Governor to take direct charge of the situation. This rapid mobilization reflects a clear intent not to let the narrative spiral and to reassure the local population and the nation that the problem is being handled at the highest level.
Still, such moments serve as a reminder: a clear, unified statement of intent, immediate response on the ground, and coordination across intelligence, army, and police channels are the minimum expected. Perception gaps, even if temporary, can erode public trust and embolden adversaries watching for signs of hesitation or disarray.
The Intelligence Question: Why Does It Keep Failing?
This isn’t the first time an intelligence failure has preceded an attack. This underscores a fundamental question: why does India’s intelligence network consistently fail to anticipate attacks? Is it poor HUMINT? Are signals intelligence inputs not being shared or acted on? Is the coordination between local police, central forces, and the army falling short?
The attack, outrage, and inaction cycle will continue until India addresses these systemic weaknesses through reforms, accountability, and investment in modern surveillance.
The Amarnath Yatra: An Upcoming Flashpoint
The annual Amarnath Yatra is due soon. The deep religious and political significance of the Amarnath Yatra has drawn targeted attention. If the intent behind the latest attack was to signal a more aggressive terror phase ahead of the Yatra, then India must respond decisively.
Securing the route, deploying layered security, leveraging drone surveillance, and maintaining 24/7 intelligence coordination will be essential. Failure is not an option—any attack on the Yatra could lead to mass panic, communal tension, and a breakdown of trust.
Conclusion
This attack is not just another headline. It’s a signal—a sharp reminder that the Valley remains a battleground despite progress. Pakistan’s strategy of inflicting severe damage on India persists. But India cannot afford to bleed anymore.
The way forward must combine strategic clarity with operational precision. Intelligence failures must be acknowledged and fixed. Military responses must be sharp, targeted, and proportionate. Diplomatically, India must sustain pressure on Pakistan and demand global accountability.
Kashmir deserves peace. But peace will not come through words alone. It will come from strength, shown not just on the battlefield, but in governance, intelligence, diplomacy, and, most importantly, resolve.