The admission made recently by Pakistan’s Defence Minister about Pakistan’s historical involvement in training and supporting terrorism at the behest of the United States, Europe, and Middle Eastern powers marks a significant turning point in regional geopolitics. Yet, when it comes to terrorism explicitly directed against India, especially in Kashmir, Pakistan continues to cling to falsehoods, projecting a façade of innocence even as overwhelming evidence indicts it.
India, as a rising global power, must reassess its strategic posture. The betrayal witnessed in the Pahalgam attack, the desperate narratives propagated by Pakistan’s military establishment, and the visible fractures within Pakistan’s socio-political fabric present both a challenge and an opportunity.
At this historical juncture, India must move beyond reactive measures and develop a coherent National Security Strategy (NSS) and a robust Higher Direction of War to guide its actions — militarily, politically, economically, and diplomatically.
This article proposes a near-term and long-term strategy framework for addressing Pakistan’s continuing threat without succumbing to impulsive adventurism or allowing ourselves to be dragged into self-destructive engagements.
The Slow March of War: A Historical Perspective
War is rarely a cataclysmic event triggered by a single act; it is a slow, grinding process, much like the conflicts we witness today in Ukraine and Gaza. Strategic patience, methodical escalation, and clear objectives are key to successful outcomes.
The beat of war is not a deafening drumroll but a slow, merciless march.
History teaches us that those who do not fight wars are often their loudest proponents. The sacrifice of our youth must not be in vain. The old saying goes, “You don’t start plowing once the monsoon has already set in.” Planning, resourcing, and directing war machinery must precede any kinetic action.
Pakistan’s Desperate Games: The View from Across the Border
Pakistan today faces existential crises on multiple fronts: –
- Economic collapse.
- Political instability.
- Widespread civil unrest in Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
- The backlash of nurturing radical jihadist groups.
- An increasingly skeptical and fatigued international community.
In desperation, Pakistan’s military establishment has resorted to the old playbook — reigniting anti-Hindu, anti-India narratives, rekindling Kashmir passions, and attempting to unify a fragmented populace by identifying external enemies.
The recent call to Pakistani expatriates to reignite fervor around Kashmir is not a show of strength — it is a desperate attempt to maintain domestic cohesion amidst chaos.
Pahalgam Treachery: A Grim Reminder
The brutal Islamic terror attack on Hindu pilgrims in Pahalgam is not merely an act of terror; it is a reflection of the toxic ecosystem nurtured over decades.
Eyewitness accounts reveal the cold indifference of local Kashmiri Muslims. No sympathy. No assistance. Smiles at the sight of terrified women. This behavior mirrors the early 1990s, during the Kashmir Pandit exodus.
However, it is essential to recognize that today, a significant portion of Kashmir’s population yearns for peace, development, and prosperity. Pakistan’s strategy seeks to fracture this fragile hope through targeted violence and psychological warfare.
The Imperative of National Unity
- In the face of Pakistani provocation, the most critical imperative is to preserve India’s internal communal harmony.
- Pakistan’s strategic aim is precise: to ignite communal strife between Hindus and Muslims/minorities within India, weaken the social fabric, and create conditions for internal unrest.
- We must not allow this insidious strategy to succeed.
- Those propagating communal hatred within must be dealt with swiftly and firmly.
- National unity must be protected at all costs.
- No external enemy can harm India as much as internal divisions can.
Questions We Must Ask
As India contemplates its next moves, a few fundamental questions must guide our decision-making.
- What is the End State we seek?
- Will launching a conventional war stop cross-border terrorism permanently?
- Can we achieve deterrence without being dragged into a prolonged, exhausting confrontation?
- How do we avoid internationalizing the conflict to our disadvantage?
- How do we ensure that Pakistan’s internal contradictions, not our missteps, lead to their collapse?
Answering these questions will form the intellectual foundation of our strategic roadmap.
Strategic Realism: Why War is Not the Answer Today
Despite provocation, India must resist the temptation of knee-jerk reactions like launching a limited war.
Why?
Geostrategic Complications. We are surrounded — by China in the north, Pakistan in the west, Bangladesh showing shifts, and Myanmar burning.
Chinese Opportunism. Limited war would allow China to posture forces on our borders, stretching us thin.
Proxy Wars Reactivated. “Moreover, with Myanmar in flames and no effective control over its remote border regions, Indian Insurgent Groups Sheltered (IIGS) — such as ULFA, NSCN factions, and PLA-Manipur — could find renewed sanctuary and Chinese support, thereby opening a dangerous second internal front in India’s Northeast.”Myanmar Instability: The Kaladan Project collapsed; Myanmar provides new sanctuaries to insurgents.
Military Preparedness. Gaps in technological, airpower, and logistics capabilities make this a dangerous juncture.
Thus, while revenge is politically tempting, strategic prudence demands patience.
India must fight smart, not fast.
Near-Term Strategy (0–2 Years)
- Set the LOC and IB on Fire — Without Crossing Over
- Use precision strikes, artillery fire, and drones to punish Pakistani forward posts.
- Keep actions below thresholds that trigger an entire conventional war.
- Objective: Bleed the Pakistani military gradually and continuously.
- Precision Stand-Off Attacks on Terror Infrastructure
- Employ long-range weaponry to dismantle terror bases.
- Maintain strategic messaging emphasising counterterrorism, not escalation.
- Break terror networks surgically.
Extensive Counter-Terrorist and Anti-Fundamentalist Operations Internally
- Strengthen the internal security apparatus to neutralize sleeper cells, radical networks, and hate propagators.
- Deploy special units to sensitive regions swiftly.
Objective: Prevent second-front destabilization.
Proxy War Inside Pakistan
- Support and finance ethnic nationalist movements: Baloch, Sindhis, Pashtuns.
- Increase psychological warfare and narrative creation within Pakistan.
Objective. Fracture Pakistan internally.
Weaponise Water Strategically
- Fast-track dam construction and hydrological projects within IWT rights.
- Provide full-spectrum air defense to critical water assets.
Objective. Economic pressure creates internal rebellion.
Long-Term Strategy (2–10 Years)
- Strategic Patience and Attrition
- Encourage separatist movements diplomatically without overt fingerprints.
- Support narratives highlighting the Pakistan Army’s atrocities against ethnic minorities.
- Leverage Pakistan’s internal contradictions to drain its military and economic strength.
Objective. Let Pakistan collapse under its contradictions.
Military Modernisation and Readiness
- Invest heavily in hypersonic weapons, AI-driven battlefield management systems, and space-based defense platforms.
- Create a rapid mobilization capability by strengthening logistics and border infrastructure.
- Establish Theatre Commands integrating Army, Navy, and Air Force operations.
Objective.: Build overwhelming superiority that deters aggression without war.
Forge Stronger Regional and Global Alliances
- Deepen partnerships with Quad countries, the UAE, France, and Vietnam for military cooperation.
- Engage Middle Eastern nations to isolate Pakistan within the Islamic world.
- Strengthen African ties to neutralize Pakistan’s leverage in the OIC and the UN forums.
- Encircle Pakistan diplomatically.
Internal Nation-Building
- Invest in social welfare, education, and healthcare to strengthen national resilience.
- Promote de-radicalization initiatives to prevent internal security threats.
- Institutionalize National Security Council reforms for real-time inter-agency coordination.
Objective. A strong, unified India is the best deterrent.
Conclusion
As the storm clouds gather once again over Kashmir and Pakistan’s desperate establishment struggles to survive, India must respond with strength, clarity, and strategic wisdom.
Balakot was a tactical message but not a strategic deterrent.
This time, India must aim for strategic transformation.
The choice is stark: –
- An impulsive war that wins a few headlines but drags us into an endless quagmire.
- Or a patient, ruthless strategy that ensures Pakistan collapses under its contradictions while India rises to authentic global leadership.
Internal communal unity will be India’s most excellent armor.
Strategic patience, not emotional outbursts, will be India’s greatest weapon.
The beat of war is slow, but the march of destiny is relentless.
It is time to plan, prepare, and prevail.