The recent visit of Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India signifies a momentous shift in South Asian geopolitics. While India has yet to recognize the Taliban-led government in Kabul formally, the engagement signals a strategic recalibration with far-reaching consequences, particularly for Pakistan. The meeting with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, held behind closed doors, was not a mere diplomatic formality but a high-stakes conversation underpinned by shifting alliances, regional insecurity, and national interests.
India-Afghanistan Relations: Context and Calculations
Despite lacking formal diplomatic ties, India has maintained a humanitarian and logistical connection with the Afghan people, primarily via the Chabahar Port in Iran. This critical corridor bypasses Pakistan and enables India to deliver food, medicine, and essential aid directly into Afghanistan. It is a gesture rooted in strategic foresight, showcasing India’s ability to plan for the long term and act in its best interests.
Afghanistan under the Taliban remains a geopolitical wildcard. However, realpolitik dictates engagement over isolation, mainly when national interests are involved. India’s measured outreach to the Taliban, starting with humanitarian assistance and progressing to diplomatic dialogues, reflects this ethos.
Operation Sindoor: A Shift in Strategy
India’s decision to pause Operation Sindoor, an intelligence-led initiative in the region, appears to have catalyzed Muttaqi’s visit. Operation Sindoor was a strategic maneuver aimed at gathering intelligence and influencing operations in and around Afghanistan. Its suspension might be a gesture of goodwill or a tactical pause to reassess priorities amid changing regional dynamics.
India’s willingness to engage with the Taliban government is not an endorsement but a recognition of reality. As a regional power, India cannot afford to be a bystander while China, Russia, and even Iran maneuver for influence in Afghanistan.
Strategic Setback for Pakistan
Perhaps Muttaqi’s India visit had the most significant impact on Pakistan. For decades, Islamabad viewed Afghanistan as its strategic depth, a buffer against Indian influence. That paradigm has now collapsed.
The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has turned against its former patron. Once a pliant proxy, the TTP now poses a direct threat to Pakistani national security. Pakistan’s airstrikes against suspected TTP hideouts underscore the deteriorating security environment. The Afghan Taliban, despite ideological overlaps with the TTP, has not acted decisively to rein them in, much to Pakistan’s frustration.
Pakistan now faces a multidimensional security crisis. Its western border is a hotbed of insurgent activity, while the eastern border with India remains tense. This twin-front challenge stretches Pakistan’s military capacity and weakens its internal cohesion. The TTP’s increasing boldness and operational capability directly indict Pakistan’s failure to manage its so-called strategic assets.
Economically, Pakistan is reeling from a balance-of-payments crisis, dwindling foreign reserves, and crippling inflation. In this context, any escalation in security operations—especially in the tribal and border regions—places additional stress on the already strained state machinery. The lack of cross-border trade with Afghanistan, compounded by hostile relations and the Taliban’s reluctance to accommodate Pakistani interests, means economic pain is intensified rather than relieved.
One of the most glaring failures of the Pakistani military establishment is its inability to secure and barricade the Durand Line, the contentious border that separates Pakistan from Afghanistan. Despite years of effort, including fencing, patrols, and military fortifications, the porous border remains vulnerable to insurgent movements, smuggling, and cross-border terrorism. This undermines Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty and highlights the diminishing control of its military over national security imperatives.
The Durand Line remains unrecognized by the Taliban, who view it as a colonial imposition. Kabul’s ideological stance directly challenges Islamabad’s narrative and exposes the limits of Pakistan’s influence. The failure to enforce a rigid boundary signals a strategic loss of face and a weakening of the military’s once-unchallenged dominance in national security policymaking.
Engaging with the Afghan Taliban gives India leverage. It signals to Islamabad that it no longer controls the narrative in Kabul. If India can establish even a transactional relationship with the Taliban, it can negate Pakistan’s influence and possibly turn it into a liability, offering a potential strategic advantage for India.
Balochistan and the Ethnic Undercurrents
The implications extend to Balochistan. The Baloch people’s long-standing struggle for independence has found little international support, but a realignment in regional politics could revive their aspirations. An India-Afghanistan axis, even loosely coordinated, could embolden separatist movements in Pakistan’s restive provinces.
The Baloch insurgency has been a thorn in Islamabad’s side for decades. If Kabul were to covertly or tacitly support this movement, it would create a two-front dilemma for Pakistan—one on its eastern border with India and the other within its western provinces.
Rare Earths and Economic Interests
Afghanistan and Pakistan’s border regions are rich in rare earth elements, a group of 17 elements crucial for producing high-tech devices, including smartphones, electric cars, and military equipment. The U.S. had long identified the Bagram Air Base as a strategic foothold for military and resource access.
With its technology and manufacturing sectors increasingly dependent on rare earths, India has every incentive to invest in access. Collaboration with Afghanistan, or at least a stable working relationship, could allow India to diversify its supply chain away from China, offering a promising economic opportunity for India.
That said, a key question remains: Will the Afghan leadership lean toward India as a partner in this exploitation, or are they shopping for the highest bidder? Given Afghanistan’s strategic location and the abundance of mineral wealth, the Taliban-led administration is likely to weigh options carefully. They may seek maximum benefit by balancing multiple suitors—China, Iran, India, and others—each willing to invest, extract, and influence.
India’s success in securing rare earth deals will depend not only on diplomatic engagement but also on how competitive its offers are, especially compared to China’s financial clout and rapid execution models. Afghanistan may adopt a transactional approach, leveraging its mineral reserves to demand infrastructure development, political legitimacy, and economic incentives from all interested parties.
The Great Game Reloaded
This is not a vacuum. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has deepened its ties with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Russia is reasserting its sphere of influence in Central Asia. Iran, hosting Chabahar, has its ambitions. The United States, although militarily withdrawn, maintains a stake via intelligence and resource interests.
India’s engagement with the Taliban disrupts this matrix. It stakes a claim in the power competition without overextending militarily. It uses diplomacy as a lever and logistics as a bridge.
A Calculated Gamble
India’s outreach to Muttaqi is not without risks. The Taliban’s record on human rights, women’s rights, and terrorism remains problematic. However, New Delhi is playing a long game. The objective is not friendship but influence, creating conditions safeguarding India’s interests and complicating adversaries’ calculations.
For Pakistan, this development is a strategic nightmare. Its leverage over Kabul is diminishing, its western border is increasingly unstable, its military establishment is under pressure, and its eastern adversary is talking to its former proxy. The old rules no longer apply.
Interests Trump Ideology
In his first interaction with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister, Jaishankar emphasized India’s historic ties with the Afghan people and ongoing support for their development. This underscores a fundamental truth of international relations: interests trump ideology.
India is not recognising the Taliban. It recognises the facts on the ground and manoeuvres with clarity, precision, and strategic foresight.
Pakistan, on the other hand, is boxed in. Its failed strategic depth policy, its domestic insurgencies, and its diplomatic isolation are converging into a perfect storm.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit may be symbolic, but symbolism in geopolitics often precedes substance. For India, it is a message of intent. For Pakistan, it is a warning. For the region, it is a signal that the old alignments are breaking, and a new strategic architecture is emerging.
Whether this results in lasting engagement or remains a tactical moment will depend on how all actors respond. But one thing is clear: India just made a bold move in South Asia’s power chessboard, and Pakistan must now rethink its entire strategy.
In this world of impermanent alliances, the only constant is national interest. Right now, India’s interests are pushing it closer to Kabul—not for friendship but for strategy. As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. But in geopolitics, even that is temporary. Interests, however, are forever.