With Donald J. Trump sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, global geopolitics is undergoing a significant shift. The Russia-Ukraine war continues to reshape modern warfare, and the conclusion of the Israel-Hamas truce signals a temporary but fragile peace in the Middle East. These conflicts highlight the evolving nature of war—where traditional combat doctrines are increasingly ineffective against modern, high-tech, and attritional battlefields.
India is at a critical juncture, with the ambition to become the world’s third-largest economy. However, the urgency of our defense preparedness cannot be overstated. The depletion of the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) fighter strength, outdated procurement processes, and the rising cost of critical defense technologies all signal that India’s military readiness is lagging. India must prepare for the possibility of facing conflicts alone in its unpredictable neighborhood, which includes China, Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Nepal. The time for action is now.
Adapting to Modern Warfare Tactics
The Ukraine war has demonstrated that sustained logistics, electronic warfare (EW), drone capabilities, and multi-domain operations define modern warfare, making it a necessity for India. India must rapidly adapt by reforming its defense acquisition process, investing in indigenous military-industrial development, and integrating cutting-edge technology. The Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) has outlined a roadmap for military modernization, including joint doctrines and a comprehensive vision for 2047. However, execution remains a challenge. The time to act is now.
Key Lessons and Their Implications for India
Re-evaluating the Tail-to-Teeth Ratio
The Ukraine conflict has highlighted that wars today are wars of endurance. The side with better logistics, supply chain resilience, and sustained firepower ultimately prevails. India must shift from a manpower-heavy force to a technology-driven military while ensuring that logistical support structures are in place for prolonged engagements.
The Defence Acquisition Process and NCNC Trials – A Roadblock to Readiness
Reforming India’s Defence Acquisition Process
A Crucial Step India’s Defense Acquisition process remains archaic, with bureaucratic inefficiencies delaying the procurement of critical weapon systems. The No-Cost, No-Commitment (NCNC) trials, originally intended to evaluate new equipment without financial commitment, often lead to obsolescence before the weapon systems reach operational units. This leads to the deployment of outdated technology against contemporary threats. The process requires urgent reform, prioritizing rapid acquisition, indigenous production, and real-time adaptability to emerging challenges.
The Transactional Nature of Defense Procurement
Despite India’s aspiration to become the world’s third-largest economy, its defense forces have not received the same attention. The Indian Air Force’s fighter strength is critically low, and negotiations with jet engine technology partners reflect a growing transactional approach from global defense firms. Reports suggest the cost of 414 jet engines for India’s combat aircraft fleet has increased from $1 billion to $1.5 billion, highlighting how foreign defense companies leverage India’s dependency.
The 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) deal has attracted interest from major global companies in a possible G2G deal.
India must recognize this new transactional environment in defense acquisitions and develop a nimble, politically decisive strategy to negotiate effectively.
Electronic Warfare (EW) and the Future Battlefield
The Ukraine war has demonstrated the devastating impact of electronic warfare (EW), where Russian forces have successfully jammed and neutralized GPS-guided munitions. India’s reliance on imported precision-strike capabilities could become a liability in a future conflict with China or Pakistan. Investing in indigenous EW capabilities, AI-powered targeting solutions, and alternative guidance systems is essential.
Drone Warfare and Asymmetric Threats
The rise of drones in Ukraine, Hamas’ attacks on Israel, and Houthi strikes in the Middle East underscore their disruptive potential. Both Russia and Ukraine are using drones to take out tanks, fortifications, and troops. India must prioritize:
- Developing a robust Indigenous drone program for offense and defense.
- Investing in counter-drone technologies to neutralize enemy drone swarms.
- Enhancing asymmetric warfare capabilities, integrating AI-driven unmanned systems.
The CDS’ Vision for Future Wars
CDS General Anil Chauhan has outlined a roadmap for India’s military modernization. The roadmap focuses on preparing for future conflicts through joint doctrines and an integrated capability development plan.
Key priorities include:
- Multi-domain operations integrating cyber, space, and electronic warfare.
- Joint communications and network-centric warfare, ensuring seamless battlefield coordination.
- Conventional missile forces and space operations, addressing India’s strategic deterrence.
- Enhanced ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) for real-time battlefield awareness.
The armed forces have identified eight key verticals, covering 196 specific tasks, to improve operational efficiency.
Digitization and the Future of Warfare
India’s military digitization efforts remain a work in progress. Network-centric warfare, AI-powered decision-making, and quantum computing will define the future battlefield. India must accelerate:
- AI integration in combat for predictive battlefield strategies.
- Quantum technology applications for secure communications and cryptography.
- Lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) to counter emerging threats.
The Manpower and Recruitment Challenge
The United States faces a severe military recruitment crisis, as its woke policies and political instability deter potential recruits. India, although not yet in a similar situation, needs to reevaluate the Agnipath scheme and short-term service models to guarantee a consistent supply of well-trained personnel for extended conflicts.
The Reality of High Casualties
Ukraine’s war casualties have been staggering. A future war involving India—whether against China, Pakistan, or in a multi-front conflict—will result in heavy losses. The Indian government must:
- Mentally prepare the public for sustained casualties.
- Ensure rapid medical evacuation and rehabilitation systems.
- Strengthen psychological resilience and troop morale for long-term engagements.
Conclusion
India must prepare for the rapid transformation of the global military landscape. Lessons from the Ukraine war, the transactional nature of defense procurement, and the necessity for self-reliance in critical technologies all demand urgent and immediate action. India’s future security and sovereignty depend on our ability to be self-reliant in these areas.
CDS General Anil Chauhan’s vision for 2047 provides a roadmap, but implementation remains key. India must:
- Reform its defense acquisition process to eliminate delays and inefficiencies.
- Develop indigenous military-industrial capabilities to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers.
- Invest in next-generation warfare technologies, including AI, quantum computing, and electronic warfare.
- Enhance operational readiness across all three services, ensuring interoperability in multi-domain warfare.
In the face of an unpredictable future, India must be prepared to fight alone if necessary. The next war will not be one of swift victories but of endurance, innovation, and strategic foresight. The time for decisive military reform and technological adaptation is now—before geopolitical realities force India into a conflict it is unprepared for.