It represents a fundamental shift in the global security landscape, as quantum technologies are swiftly shifting from theoretical research to practical deployment in military and intelligence applications. Quantum Insider summarizes the 2025 Threat Assessment report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) as emphasizing the increasing speed at which geopolitical adversaries are incorporating quantum sensing, secure communications, and computation into their defense strategies.
Immediate Impact of Quantum Sensing and Communications
The DIA assessment highlights that quantum sensors and communication systems are advancing at a rapid pace and are nearing real-world military applications, despite considerable public attention being focused on the potential of quantum computers to break encryption. Particularly, China and Russia are developing city-scale quantum networks and creating quantum sensors that can detect submarines or underground facilities by detecting subtle changes in magnetic or gravitational fields. These technologies have the potential to challenge the long-standing U.S. advantages in stealth and navigation by providing situational awareness in environments where traditional GPS signals are unavailable or blocked.
Several city-spanning channels are now included in China’s national quantum network, which employs quantum key distribution (QKD), a method that is considered impervious to conventional eavesdropping. In the same vein, Russia is investing in secure quantum channels, with the assistance of domestic defense enterprises and research institutes.
Quantum Computing: A Real Threat with a Long-Term Horizon
The report observes that, although quantum computers are not yet capable of breaching public-key encryption, the resources necessary for such attacks are being reduced by improvements in hardware and algorithms. The number of qubits required to breach RSA encryption, for instance, remains practically unproven, even though it may be significantly lower than previously estimated. The threat is still regarded as long-term; however, the rapidity of progress necessitates immediate attention.
Integration with Other Technologies
Quantum technologies are not developing in isolation. Their adoption in military systems is being expedited by their integration with electronic warfare, artificial intelligence (AI), and advanced microelectronics. For example, AI is enhancing sensor and communication capabilities, while quantum processors are being investigated for signal analysis, logistics, and multidomain modeling. The risk of technological surprise is heightened by this combination, as adversaries may achieve advancements that are challenging to detect or counter promptly.
Collaboration and Geopolitical Dynamics
The report details the strengthening of relations with North Korea and Iran, as well as the expansion of military and technical cooperation between China and Russia. Although China is circumspect regarding direct military assistance, it is an active participant in joint exercises and technical exchanges, particularly in the fields of electronic warfare and space exploration. Russia provides collaborators with access to nuclear and space technologies, some of which could be used to support quantum sensing or navigation initiatives.
The Function of Microelectronics
The quest for quantum technology is mainly motivated by advanced microelectronics. The DIA emphasizes that a nation’s capacity to develop computation-intensive technologies such as AI and quantum systems is contingent upon its access to high-tech processors and manufacturing capacity. Domestic investment and global workarounds are maintaining the momentum of research, even though export regulations on semiconductors have impeded certain aspects of China’s progress. Russia keeps investing in electronics for missiles and secure communications, despite suffering supply shortages as a result of sanctions.
Strategic Consequences for the Defense of the United States
The DIA strongly encourages U.S. defense agencies to incorporate quantum readiness into their planning as a fundamental component of military strategy, rather than merely as a cybersecurity measure. This encompasses an evaluation of the potential for quantum sensors and timepieces to challenge preconceived notions regarding stealth, navigation, and detection. The report highlights the challenge of identifying and authenticating quantum technologies before their deployment, thereby increasing the likelihood of strategic surprise.
Countermeasures: Quantum Key Distribution and Post-Quantum Cryptography
The vulnerability of current cryptography to quantum computing attacks is a significant national security concern. The United States has identified two primary countermeasures:
Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)
PQC employs mathematical problems that are believed to be secure enough to withstand quantum computers. The U.S. government has mandated the upgrade of communication systems to PQC by 2035 in accordance with National Security Memorandum 10, which was issued by former President Biden. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is the global leader in the standardization of PQC.
Quantum Key Distribution (QKD)
QKD uses the principles of quantum physics to encrypt communications; however, it necessitates the installation of new hardware infrastructure. China is the leader in the deployment of QKD, boasting a 2,000-kilometer fiber-optic network and two QKD satellites. Nevertheless, the NSA does not support QKD as a means of safeguarding U.S. national security information. Instead, it favors PQC due to its software-based approach.
Interoperability Challenges and International Positions
Quantum countermeasures have been implemented by allied nations in various ways. PQC has been selected by the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the Czech Republic, as per the National Security Agency. Nevertheless, the European Union is providing support to the deployment of QKD systems in certain European countries, including Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Austria. Canada and South Korea are both investing in PQC and QKD, while Japan is promoting both technologies with a stronger emphasis on PQC.
Interoperability challenges arise from this divergence. Communication systems that employ a variety of cryptographic technologies may face compatibility issues, which could result in costly upgrades or even the possibility of secure communication failures between allies.
Limitations that remain
Despite developments, there are currently no scalable quantum computers capable of breaching the encryption in use today, and the majority of military field applications require bulky and power-hungry quantum sensing devices. Stability, error correction, and manufacturability are all substantial obstacles that photonic, superconducting, and trapped-ion quantum systems encounter.
Conclusion
Quantum technologies are increasingly being integrated into critical military and intelligence systems, providing benefits in navigation, secure communications, and sensing. The risk of technological surprise is being elevated as a result of the convergence of quantum science, AI, electronic warfare, and microelectronics, which is reshaping modern warfare. In response, the United States and its allies are employing a combination of post-quantum cryptography and, in certain instances, quantum key distribution. However, the future of secure interoperability may be complicated by global disparities in approach.