On 14 June, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, will attend the United States Army Day celebrations. This is not a mere ceremonial gesture — it’s a calculated diplomatic maneuver. The red carpet for Munir, a cleric-aligned strongman, sends a clear message: Washington is once again considering Pakistan as a valuable strategic partner. For India, the implications are stark: the need for immediate recalibration or the risk of facing a strategic surprise.
Munir is not just another visiting general. He is the most powerful man in Pakistan’s military-political complex, one who shapes foreign policy as much as he executes it. His 6 April speech to the Pakistani diaspora, laced with nationalistic fervor and hardline views on Kashmir, should have triggered Western concern. Instead, the US chose engagement. This signals an uncomfortable truth — America’s priorities in the region are transactional, and regional sensitivities will be sidelined if they interfere with US strategic depth.
Defence Spending While Seeking Aid: The Contradiction
Adding to this is Pakistan’s recent 20% increase in its defense budget, even as it seeks debt relief and IMF assistance. This contradiction is telling. On the one hand, Islamabad pleads for economic rescue; on the other, it allocates more funds to its military. The pros for Pakistan are obvious — internal consolidation of the Army’s power, strategic signaling to India, and bargaining strength with both China and the US. But the cons are deeper. The budget increase raises red flags for donors and signals misplaced priorities. It deepens economic instability and alienates countries offering financial help, particularly when that aid indirectly supports militarisation.
But this doesn’t matter to Washington. The US has a history of arming Pakistan, not selling to it. Drones, ISR systems, cyber tools — these aren’t purchases, they’re strategic “gifts” wrapped in the language of counterterrorism or stability. And they may soon resume, allowing Rawalpindi to posture with greater confidence despite a shaky economy.
The Executor of Policy, Not Just a Guest
To view Munir as a guest is to miss the point. He is now a central executor of US policy in South Asia, just as Pakistan once was during the Cold War. His growing alignment with the US is part of a broader effort to balance China and hedge against Indian independence in strategic decision-making. Washington may be dusting off old strategies — support a manageable Pakistan to limit Chinese influence while keeping India from becoming too independent.
This is a zero-sum equation for India. The US gains a foothold. Pakistan gains legitimacy. India receives a stark reminder that superpowers don’t make friends — they manage interests.
As Henry Kissinger warned: “Being America’s enemy is dangerous; being its friend is fatal.” That quote may have been intended for others, but today, India must internalize its meaning.
A Pattern of Encirclement
This new alignment is not occurring in isolation. In Bangladesh, following the Monsoon Revolution, an unelected and pro-US figure, Muhammad Yunus, has assumed power. In Myanmar, instability continues to invite external interference. The result? India is slowly being ring-fenced by regimes or situations where Washington or Beijing has more say than Delhi.
It’s a classic case of strategic encirclement. The US may justify it as a hedge against China, but it tightens India’s operating space and forces hard decisions in a region that’s increasingly crowded with competing agendas.
Military Aid Without a Price Tag
Pakistan’s economic collapse doesn’t matter much when the US is willing to step in with “assistance.” Historically, Washington has bypassed Pakistan’s economic limitations by directly gifting military assets. We should expect this pattern to return. Modern warfare tools, such as surveillance platforms, cyber capabilities, and integrated battlefield intelligence, may quietly flow to Pakistan again — upgrades that shift tactical parity without media headlines.
These tools won’t win wars outright, but they give Rawalpindi the confidence to escalate, knowing its backers will cushion the fallout. These are not arms sales — they are strategic investments by Washington to maintain control and influence in a volatile zone.
Realpolitik and Recalibration: What India Must Do
India cannot afford to be a bystander. The moment calls for preparation, not panic.
First, India must reassert its strategic autonomy, not as a nostalgic gesture, but as a forward-looking strategy. Aligning too closely with any single power, including the US, would compromise flexibility and could lead to undesirable outcomes. India must work with those who respect its sovereignty: France, Israel, the UAE, Japan, and South Korea offer viable partnerships that don’t come with ideological strings attached.
Second, Indigenous defense capability must be prioritized. Reliance on Russian or Western imports is a long-term vulnerability. India must fast-track domestic production of critical technologies — from drones and AI systems to naval platforms and aerospace systems. The Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy (DPEPP) must become a national mission, not a bureaucratic slogan.
Third, India should lead multilateral groupings with a clear purpose. Platforms like BRICS, SCO, and I2U2 aren’t just diplomatic photo ops — they’re tools to shape the regional security and economic narrative on India’s terms.
Ultimately, India must assert its influence in shaping the global narrative. Western perception has long been shaped more by Pakistan’s lobbying than by India’s clarity. Think tanks, academic forums, media partnerships, and diaspora networks must be mobilized to frame India as the anchor of regional stability, not just a counterweight to China. This is not just a suggestion, but a call to action to wield the power of influence.
A Cold War Echo
This moment mirrors the 1960s when the US supplied Pakistan with F-86 jets and geopolitical support in exchange for regional access. India, even then, had to walk a tightrope — cooperating with the Soviets while preserving its independence.
Today, roles may have evolved, but the logic remains. The Quad is not a security alliance. The US-India relationship, though promising, is not immune to the complex logic of interests.
India must treat its alliances like tools, not chains.
Conclusion: Eyes Open, Spine Straight
As General Munir flies to Washington, he carries more than an invitation. He carries legitimacy, leverage, and a subtle declaration that Pakistan is once again a player on America’s board.
India should not see this as a crisis. It’s a clarifier.
In a world no longer divided into good and evil but into naive and strategic, India must be the latter.
Because lions don’t have friends, they have allies. And allies don’t mourn when the carcass is stripped — they feast.
It’s time to hunt smart.