The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade (Minpromtorg) has developed a draft government decree, which stipulates that the deadlines for restoring the airworthiness of several civil aircraft—primarily the Tu-204/214, Il-96-400T, and An-124—are being extended until 2027. The original program, authorized by the Government of the Russian Federation on October 3, 2022, expected the completion of restoration for no fewer than 12 aircraft between 2022 and 2024. Now, a portion of the work is being deferred to the 2026–2027 period. These modifications, as outlined in the ministry’s explanatory note, are attributable to a combination of objective factors: delays in component supply, the necessity for import substitution, modernization of production facilities, and the reestablishment of cooperation capabilities at industrial sites in Voronezh, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and other aviation centers.
The extended timeline is especially obvious in the Tu-204 series: according to Minpromtorg, the final two aircraft of this type are scheduled for delivery to operators between 2026 and 2027. The ministry observes that this adjustment to the timeline will not necessitate additional funding beyond the budget already authorized. The main reasons for the delay consist of the necessity for complete import substitution of multiple components, along with supplementary testing and certification processes associated with type modifications and innovative technical solutions.
Funding Structure and the “Two Subsidies”
The restoration program was established through multiple stages and, at first glimpse, seems to consist of individual decisions rather than a unified, comprehensive initiative. In 2022, the government allocated approximately 6.9 billion rubles from the reserve fund as a property contribution to Rostec for the restoration of at least seven aircraft during 2022–2023. This subsidy was established as an independent measure, and the specific inventory of aircraft encompassed by it was not publicly disclosed.
Simultaneously, Minpromtorg proposed (and formally announced) a second package—15.4 billion rubles allocated for the restoration and modernization of eleven specific aircraft: eight Tu-204/214s, two Il-96-400Ts, and one An-124-100, all owned by subsidiaries of United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and the leasing company Ilyushin Finance Co. These aircraft were designated for three operators: Red Wings (including its subsidiary Sky Gates), Volga-Dnepr, and Aviastar-TU. However, official documents do not specify whether these two financial allocations—comprising 6.9 billion and 15.4 billion rubles—overlap or constitute a single inventory of 18 aircraft. Therefore, the frequently cited formula “18 aircraft for 22.3 billion rubles” should be regarded solely as an analytical hypothesis rather than an established fact.
What Has Been Achieved to Date: Rostec’s Reports
According to Rostec, the majority of the aircraft whose restoration commenced in 2022 have already been reintroduced into service and delivered to clients. For instance, two Il-96-400T cargo aircraft were refurbished and delivered to Sky Gates (a subsidiary of Red Wings), and passenger Tu-204 and Tu-214 aircraft were also transferred to their respective operators. Rostec further verifies that the remaining Tu-204 aircraft will be delivered between 2026 and 2027. These updates suggest that a significant portion of the initial workload has been accomplished; however, the remaining duties necessitate more advanced technological intervention.
Technical Challenges Impeding Progress
The reasons for delays in the original schedule are attributable to both logistical and technological factors. Many aircraft had reached the end of their service life and necessitated extensive repairs; several were in a highly disassembled condition, substantially augmenting the scope of restoration efforts. Sanctions and the suspension of foreign component supplies necessitated the pursuit of Russian alternatives and the execution of a comprehensive import substitution program, which demands time for development, testing, and incorporation into certification frameworks. Additionally, certain contractors failed to meet deadlines, resulting in delays in component deliveries and necessitating a redistribution of tasks among companies. Finally, several modifications necessitated official certification amendments—particularly for the Tu-214—which entail extensive testing and regulatory approvals.
Effect on Airlines and the Transportation Sector
For the operators anticipating the return of these domestically restored aircraft—Red Wings, Volga-Dnepr, and Aviastar-TU—the delay necessitates a revision of their operational plans. On one hand, the restoration of aircraft was anticipated to improve the national fleet and diminish reliance on foreign technology. On the other hand, postponed deliveries may temporarily constrain capacity and delay expansion initiatives. Minpromtorg and Rostec affirm that all restored aircraft will be outfitted with enhanced systems that comply with both customer specifications and federal aviation standards—ensuring that the quality of the final product remains consistent, despite any adjustments to the schedule.
The Program in the Context of Technological Sovereignty
Government statements emphasize that the objective of the program includes more than merely restoring individual aircraft. It aims to enhance the technological independence of the Russian aviation sector. Restoring and modernizing the Tu-204/214, Il-96, and An-124 not only reintroduces rare aircraft models into operational service but also revitalizes the industrial infrastructure necessary for the mass production of contemporary Russian-built airliners, including domestically produced versions of the MC-21-310 and SJ-100. Fundamentally, the program is conceived as an investment in revitalizing industrial collaboration and the essential capabilities for the sustained growth of the domestic aviation sector.
Unresolved Issues and Potential Risks
Despite the improvements that have been documented, many unresolved matters remain. The extent of overlap between the two financial packages (6.9 billion and 15.4 billion rubles) remains uncertain, complicating an accurate evaluation of the program’s overall scope and total cost. Although Minpromtorg maintains that extending the timeline for the Tu-204 restoration will not incur additional costs, unforeseen challenges related to import substitution or certification may still emerge. Restoring industrial collaboration will also necessitate time and governmental supervision; sustained success relies on the stability of supply chains and the capacity of enterprises to promptly address technological challenges.
Conclusion and Future Perspectives
Delaying a portion of the work to 2026–2027 does not constitute a failure of the program; rather, it reflects a pragmatic adjustment considering technological and logistical limitations. Based on the available information, a significant portion of the program has already been finalized: approximately ten aircraft have been restored and delivered. Nevertheless, ongoing challenges related to component availability, import substitution, and industrial capacity underscore that the program encompasses more than aircraft restoration; it also involves reconstructing the industrial infrastructure essential for future aviation initiatives.
If the government and industry succeed in stabilizing supply chains, promoting domestic component manufacturing, and simplifying certification procedures without compromising safety, it is reasonable to anticipate that the program will be fully completed by 2027. If not, the risks of additional delays and escalating costs persist, potentially undermining the economic viability of the investments.