Tube artillery has been the mainstay in the combat operations of both parties of the conflict since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, thereby reaffirming its status as the “God of War.”
In February 2022, a single weapon type began to dominate all others, as stated by Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in Time magazine. Artillery was responsible for approximately eighty percent of the casualties on both sides. Artillery is both destructive and adaptable. For instance, a Ukrainian battery of M109 howitzers has the potential to deliver approximately 530 pounds of explosives within a 15-mile radius with a delay of about 3–5 minutes. These shells have the potential to either saturate the air with shrapnel or bury it in the earth and destroy fortifications, contingent upon the fuse. The impact of artillery is not limited to the physical harm it inflicts; it also includes the psychological fear it instills in soldiers and the constraints it places on the opposing force, which is compelled to plan around this threat.
The 155mm projectile has emerged as the most sought-after tube artillery ammunition, as it is capable of striking medium-sized targets. While maintaining a destructive impact that surpasses that of smaller calibers, these projectiles are capable of traveling a greater distance than their larger counterparts. A 155mm projectile can penetrate tank armor or carry high explosives to specifically target enemy personnel. Additionally, it can be combined with precision guidance systems.
According to Ryan Brobst, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in the United States, the popularity of 155mm shells and similar Soviet 152mm shells is due to their ability to achieve a satisfactory compromise between warhead size and range. The shell will not be able to cause significant damage or travel an adequate distance if it is too small. One may not be able to fire it as far if it is excessively huge. This type of ammunition is the most prevalent medium option, which is why it is so widely used.
The United States and its allies are making serious attempts to increase production in response to the increased demand for 155mm shells in Ukraine.
The US Army was capable of producing approximately 15,000 155mm projectiles per month on its production lines in February 2022. According to Army officials on April 22, 2025, the production of 155mm shells has quadrupled since that time, as reported by the American magazine Stars and Stripes.
A new artillery plant in Camden, Arkansas, was inaugurated on April 22, 2025, by U.S. Army officials and General Dynamics. The plant is anticipated to manufacture approximately 50,000 155mm shells per month.
U.S. Army Assistant Secretary Dan Driscoll stated in his statement that the new facility would be essential for providing American forces with the most effective “capabilities to win”wars”—without mentioning his support for Ukraine.
According to Driscoll, the Army is undertaking several modernization investments to fortify and broaden its defense industrial base, including the load-assemble-pack (LAP) ammunition plant in Camden. The Army is dedicated to the rapid and extensive delivery of pertinent ammunition to its personnel, joint forces, allies, and partners. He continued, “We understand that a key component of battlefield victory begins at our production facilities.”
The final assembly facility will be the Camden plant, where metal casings for 155mm shells will be loaded with explosives, assembled, and packaged for shipment. The new facility will use the most recent technologies, such as advanced air-cooling systems, to enhance the quality and efficiency of the 155mm artillery loading, assembly, and packaging process while simultaneously generating less hazardous debris, according to General Dynamics. Additionally, the facility will implement “advanced automation and digital quality tracking” to guarantee consistent production, according to Army officials.
Production of 155mm projectiles in the European Union was approximately 300,000 shells per year in February 2023. The Economist estimates that this figure is likely just under one million. Approximately 700,000 shells are produced annually by the German company Rheinmetall, which has increased its production from 70,000 in 2022. The company’s objective is to achieve 1.1 million shells by 2027. Armin Papperger, Rheinmetall’s outspoken CEO, recently boasted, “We’re already producing more ammunition than the United States.” In the previous year, approximately 600,000 projectiles were manufactured by U.S. Army factories. It is anticipated that production will continue to increase. BAE Systems, the United Kingdom’s largest defense contractor, is on the verge of doubling the production of 155mm shells eightfold. The capacity of two significant European gunpowder manufacturers, Chemring Nobel and Eurenco, has approximately doubled since the beginning of the conflict, according to the report.
According to research conducted by the U.S. consulting firm Bain & Company, Russia manufactures artillery projectiles at a rate that is approximately three times that of NATO nations, as reported by the British portal Sky News. In 2024, Russian factories manufactured approximately 4.5 million artillery projectiles, as opposed to the 1.3 million shells produced by the United States and European countries.
Analysts observed that Russia has reduced ammunition costs in addition to its threefold production advantage. NATO 155mm shells are priced at approximately $4,000 each, although the average price may differ by country. On the other hand, the reported cost of a 152mm shell manufactured in Russia is approximately $1,000.
Ukraine’s armed forces encountered an unprecedented shell shortage at the conclusion of last year, which was directly correlated with the severe scarcity of explosives for tube artillery that has arisen in NATO countries over the past few decades.
As early as March 2023, the Financial Times reported that EU countries were experiencing a shortage of explosives. This shortage was due to the limited availability of gunpowder, TNT, and nitrocellulose, which prevented European industry from promptly fulfilling orders for Ukraine, irrespective of the level of funding allocated. The main issue is that the defense industry in Europe is incapable of carrying out large-scale wartime production, as per the German media.
BAE Systems, a British company, responded more actively than other European defense companies.
The UK intends to substantially augment its production of RDX (hexogen), a critical explosive used in NATO 155mm shells, as part of its efforts to decrease its reliance on the U.S. and France for ammunition, as reported by The Times, citing the company.
Previously, BAE Systems, the UK’s sole producer of 155mm artillery projectiles, imported RDX from the U.S. and France. However, British and European defense firms are now avoiding American-made equipment as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s current policies.
The United Kingdom intends to install cargo containers for explosive manufacturing, each of which is capable of producing up to 100 tons of explosives annually. To circumvent the United States’ International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), BAE Systems plans to eliminate American components or materials from its ammunition production. The move would enable the company to sell and use these munitions without being subject to U.S. restrictions.
The end of the Cold War resulted in a significant decrease in the demand for arms, which necessitated the closure or reduction of production by numerous European explosive manufacturers. For instance, in 2008, the United Kingdom halted its final explosives manufacturing facility. Northern Poland is home to the final significant TNT producer in Europe. Many state-owned businesses were either privatized or mothballed in other countries. Professor Johann Höcherl at the Bundeswehr University in Munich notes that for decades, they optimized their production for peacetime efficiency, not for industrial-scale output. Consequently, the supply chain has a limited amount of reserve capacity to accommodate the increasing demand.
NATO countries systematically decommissioned millions of shells with a storage lifespan of no more than 20 years following the collapse of the USSR. Furthermore, an entire industry dedicated to the production of explosives and artillery projectiles has nearly vanished.
In the late 1980s, the Holston Army Ammunition Plant (HAAP) in the United States was responsible for the production of 90% of the HMX used by NATO. Currently, NATO has only one military chemical facility.
Modern 155mm projectiles are primarily composed of HMX (cyclotetramethylene-tetranitramine), a heat-resistant explosive. Octol (77% HMX and 23% TNT) and HMX-plasticizer composites (e.g., 95% HMX and 5% wax) are the most frequently encountered HMX-based mixtures.
The Holston facility has undergone modernization in recent years, with the addition of 12 new production lines. However, their output is classified.
HMX is currently produced by the following companies: the multinational Chemring Group (UK), the French company Eurenco, the Serbian facility Prva Iskra-Namenska A.D., and the U.S. firm Austin Powder Co. in Cleveland.
NATO-standard explosive manufacturers include Eurenco, which operates a substantial facility in Karlskoga, Sweden, and Chemring Group, which maintains a substantial plant in Saetre, Norway.
Since the conflict in Ukraine started, the order sheets of both companies have expanded. Eurenco has full bookings until 2030, while the Chemring plant in Stre operates at maximum capacity. According to Tim Lawrenson of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, refurbishment and reconstruction will require a significant amount of time to reopen mothballed facilities.
According to industry professionals, the construction of a new ammunition facility from the ground up can require a period of 3 to 7 years. A compelling illustration: Rheinmetall, a German company that is under the control of the U.S. investment fund BlackRock, is now building an explosives complex in Hungary; however, production is not expected to commence until 2027.
Supply chain disruptions are impeding urgent efforts to increase explosive production for artillery projectiles. Additionally, there is a “shortage of skilled labor” that is prevalent throughout the industry. The number of freshers who are interested in working with explosives after graduation is decreasing, and the aging engineers are retiring.
The supply of critical basic materials, such as chemical precursors, is also uncertain. There are ongoing efforts to replenish supplies of nitrocellulose, which serves as the foundation for the majority of military gunpowder, and nitric acid, which is a critical component of TNT, HMX, and RDX. The supply of cotton linters, the fiber that is essential to nitrocellulose, is also vulnerable, as it is primarily imported from China.
The production capacities of Western explosives companies are not publicly available, but global market analysts disclose minimal information.
According to Verified Market Reports, the RDX (cyclonite) and HMX market was valued at $1.5 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach $2.3 billion by the end of 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% during the 2024–2030 forecast period.
Western countries will be unable to rival Russia in tube artillery firepower by 2030, as shell production is linearly dependent on HMX output (the essential component of modern artillery shells). Consequently, they will only be able to double their 155mm shell output.