Russia enacted restrictions on the export of enriched uranium to the United States on November 15, 2024. The temporary ban is a retaliatory measure in response to U.S. restrictions on the supply of Russian uranium products for the years 2024–2027 and a complete ban on imports beginning in 2028. The outgoing U.S. President, Joe Biden, signed the executive order prohibiting the import of Russian uranium in the spring of 2024. The Department of Energy has the authority to grant exemptions for restricted imports of Russian low-enriched uranium (LEU) under specific circumstances until January 2028. If no viable alternatives are available, these waivers could be essential for the maintenance of operations at critical nuclear facilities.
On November 16, 2024, the Russian prohibition went into effect, and it will last until December 31, 2025. The prohibition encompasses all contracts with entities based in the United States and exports to the United States. Nevertheless, the Russian Federal Service for Technical and Export Control may issue one-time licenses to grant exemptions. The annual value of Russian uranium exports to the United States was approximately $1 billion.
However, uranium prices have already begun to increase in response to the announcement, which is indicative of market apprehensions regarding potential supply shortages.
Nevertheless, from the perspective of the outgoing U.S. administration, this move aims to suppress Russian exports, particularly high-tech exports: even low-enriched uranium is not as low-value as oil or bulk grain but carries some added value.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Russia was the main supplier of enriched uranium to the United States until recently, contributing 27% of the uranium used in commercial reactors in 2023.
In 2023, the United States, China, and France collectively accounted for 58% of the global uranium demand for nuclear reactors. Kazakhstan, Canada, Namibia, and Australia collectively produced more than 70% of the world’s uranium in 2022.
The embargo on uranium supplies from Russia, the largest exporter, appears to temporarily harm the United States, which imports 95% of its nuclear fuel and operates 94 nuclear reactors. Furthermore, the United States is currently focusing on the development of small modular reactors that utilize exclusively Russian-produced uranium, enriched to 15–19.75%.
The United States will become reliant on the European Union if it is unable to substitute for enriched uranium from Russia. The United States does not engage in uranium enrichment, making two European corporations the sole friendly suppliers.
There are numerous hints from the Trump administration, which suggest a strong emphasis on energy independence and national security. Donald Trump underscored the national security hazard posed by the reliance on foreign uranium, particularly from state-owned enterprises in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, during his presidency. He established the U.S. Nuclear Fuel Working Group to address these concerns, advocating for the importance of domestic uranium production in the context of U.S. economic stability and security. The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act is a significant legislative achievement that exemplifies the foundation the Trump administration has laid regarding uranium imports. The objective of this legislation is to eliminate dependence on Russian uranium, thereby corroborating Trump’s prior statements regarding the hazards associated with imports. The objective is to enhance the security of the United States energy supply while simultaneously addressing intricate geopolitical dynamics. There have been discussions among Trump administration officials regarding the possibility of granting U.S. regulators a greater degree of authority to prevent the importation of nuclear fuel from adversarial nations such as China and Russia in response to the Russian prohibition. This proactive posture emphasizes a dedication to guaranteeing that the United States’ energy requirements are satisfied through domestic or allied sources, rather than relying on potentially hostile nations.
As global uranium politics became more intricate in late 2024, the Trump administration’s emphasis on uranium independence acquired renewed relevance. Although the immediate objective was to decrease Russian uranium dependence, the strategic implications were far-reaching and extended beyond the U.S.-Russian relationship. A new challenge in Africa emerged that threatened to reshape the global uranium supply chain as Western nations contended with Russia’s export ban. The potential for cooperation between Iran and uranium-rich African nations, particularly Niger, further complicated an already volatile situation. This development not only confirmed prior apprehensions regarding energy security but also underscored the potential impact of regional shifts in Africa on Western access to essential nuclear fuel supplies.
Reports that Niger was in the process of negotiating the sale of 300 tons of uranium concentrate to Iran, which was valued at $56 million, intensified concerns in Washington and Paris in early 2024. Although this value is relatively insignificant, the strategic implications caused substantial anxiety in Paris and Washington.
In response to these developments, Western media began to refer to Niger’s leadership as a “junta”, alleging that Moscow had supported the new government in its ascent to power through a coup. This resulted in the expulsion of French forces and the polite request for U.S. troops to leave the country. At the same time, Russian military personnel were observed in Niger, which is abundant in uranium.
Niger supplies 15% of France’s uranium and 25% of the EU’s uranium supply. The long-term stability of France’s uranium giant Orano is uncertain, even though it claims to have sufficient reserves for several years. Diversification efforts involving Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan offer only an illusion of independence from Russia.
The loss of a portion of its uranium supply could further compromise France’s capacity to fulfill its energy obligations and impede its ability to address geopolitical challenges.
The Niger uranium issue serves to emphasize the broader scope of a “Russian-Western front” that extends beyond Ukraine. Experts suggest that Russia’s strategy involves breaking the “color revolution” encirclement in the former Soviet space and asserting control over Europe’s energy supplies and trade routes.