The Swedish anti-ship missile system RBS 15 Gungnir exemplifies the most recent iteration of “anti-access/area denial” (A2/AD) weapons. It is capable of being deployed from multiple platforms, has a range exceeding 300 kilometers, and is resistant to electronic warfare (EW). Additionally, it is the result of decades of experience in securing coastal defense in the Baltic Sea. In light of the war in Ukraine and the growing significance of anti-ship missiles, Gungnir is of particular importance to both Swedish defense and export markets.
Introduction
The post-World War II era marks the origin of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs). The German Fieseler Fi 103, also known as the V-1, underwent various trials in the United States and the Soviet Union after the war. The observations obtained from these trials played a crucial role in developing the first generation of anti-ship guided missiles. However, the significant increase in ASCMs took place during the 1960s and 1970s, when the Soviet Union began widespread deployment of the P-15 Termit missiles (NATO reporting name Styx), which were effectively utilized in the Arab–Israeli War of 1967. Project Komar, a pair of Egyptian missile vessels equipped with P-15 missiles, successfully sank the Israeli destroyer Eilat. During the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, India effectively operated anti-ship missiles of this type. China produced numerous versions of the Silkworm anti-ship missile, which it extensively exported. For a period of time, the P-15 and its clones were among the most widely used anti-ship missiles. The evident effectiveness of this concept expedited the advancement of Western systems, including the British Sea Skua (1982), the American Harpoon (1977), and the French Exocet (1975). Today, anti-ship missiles play a crucial role in A2/AD doctrines designed to prevent adversaries from entering specific areas or to make operations in those areas hazardous.
Advantages of anti-ship guided missiles
Anti-ship guided missiles can strike high-value targets, including warships and their escorts, from a considerable distance, which significantly reduces the risk to friendly forces. To achieve this, anti-ship guided missiles utilize a combination of inertial guidance, satellite navigation, active and passive radar seekers, passive infrared guidance, and primarily algorithms from artificial intelligence that enable adaptive flight-path changes, avoidance of defensive countermeasures, and selection of an optimal impact point. Missiles are capable of operating in a low-altitude sea-skimming mode and approaching targets with minimal telltale signatures. Some missiles, such as the Russian Kalibr in its anti-ship variant, also combine supersonic and subsonic flight phases, thereby minimizing the likelihood of interception and shortening the time between launch and impact.
Anti-ship missiles provide small and medium-sized states, which do not aspire to control the oceans, with an operational advantage over larger fleets. They establish effective A2/AD zones that discourage an adversary from approaching sensitive coastal areas when deployed appropriately (e.g., on mobile coastal platforms or aircraft). Their integration into layered command-and-control systems allows for coordinated attacks that are highly effective, such as salvo launches that confound defensive countermeasures. The advantage of an opponent’s navy can be nearly negated by a well-organized coastal defense that employs modern anti-ship guided missiles and drones of various types, as evidenced by recent conflicts (e.g., the war in Ukraine). Constructing such a capability comes at a fraction of the capital and operating costs of an ocean-going surface fleet. Consequently, Sweden has historically placed significant emphasis on this sector.
Sweden’s anti-ship missile tradition
Sweden has been a pioneer in the development of European anti-ship missiles, and its approach has been significantly influenced by its unique geographical, technological, and strategic circumstances. The Swedish armed forces are compelled to combine high armament with maximum mobility and tactical flexibility due to the indented coastline of the Baltic Sea, its narrow straits, and thousands of islands that permit relatively concealed approaches by missile carriers. Stockholm, in collaboration with its Western partners, pursued a long-term policy of neutrality by developing its own state-of-the-art weapon systems that facilitate asymmetric defense against numerically superior adversaries.
The Robot-08 (Rb-08) anti-ship guided missile, which was developed in the mid-1950s and entered service in 1966, was the first significant milestone. In doing so, Sweden, a neutral state lacking an oceanic fleet, developed and deployed a contemporary anti-ship missile in Europe a decade before key NATO powers. It was the first anti-ship guided missile in Sweden, boasting a 250 kg warhead and a range exceeding 70 kilometers. The missile’s guidance system was made up of two components: inertial navigation with long-range commands was implemented initially, and an active radar system was implemented at the conclusion to identify its intended target. It was intended for deployment from coastal batteries and Halland-class destroyers and remained a critical component of Swedish defense doctrine until the 1990s.
Robotsystem 15 (RBS 15)—Sweden’s current anti-ship system
The next iteration of Swedish missiles was designed to accommodate the evolving Cold War environment, as it became imperative to provide coastal defense against Soviet naval forces. The Rb 08 missiles of the past were operationally inflexible, heavy, and unwieldy. They necessitated launch ramps on large ships, and each missile had to be individually prepared prior to launch. Only two missiles could be transported on a ramp simultaneously. In the late 1950s, the Swedish navy transitioned to smaller, faster attack vessels in lieu of large destroyers, a strategy that was more appropriate for medium-sized states without power projection aspirations. In this context, the pursuit of a compact weapon in sealed container launchers that is appropriate for fast craft and coastal platforms, with a rapid reaction time and multiple-shot capability, commenced.
The Soviet navy’s rapid development during the 1960s and 1970s significantly altered the security equilibrium in the Baltic Sea. The Soviet navy commissioned a significant number of fast missile vessels, each equipped with P-15 Termit missiles. With salvos, these units could potentially overwhelm air defenses and pose a threat to even larger surface ships. Nanuchka-class corvettes were introduced to the service with the more advanced P-120 Malakhit missiles, which provide more reliable guidance and a longer range. In conjunction with the increasing threat posed by Soviet maritime aviation, it was imperative to create a novel, highly effective anti-ship system.
Consequently, Saab Bofors Dynamics developed RBS 15 in the late 1970s. The RBS 15 Mk I, the first iteration, was employed in 1985. The missile, which was propelled by a Microturbo TRI-60 turbojet, was capable of achieving a speed of approximately Mach 0.9 and a range exceeding 70 kilometers. It used both inertial navigation and an active radar seeker, and its ability to fly low made it hard for enemy air-defense systems to spot and stop it. For example, the RBS-15 Mk II, which was introduced in the 1990s, enhanced EW resistance, extended its range to 150 km, and enhanced strike accuracy. The RBS 15 Mk III, which was developed in collaboration with Diehl Defence and deployed after 2004, increased the range beyond 200 km. It was equipped with a modernized guidance system that includes satellite correction, an enhanced radar seeker, and the capacity to receive mid-course updates via datalink. The ability to engage not only surface targets but also designated land targets is a significant advantage, as it broadens the tactical utility. The Mk II and Mk III versions currently anchor the Swedish coastal defense. Nevertheless, the defense is expected to undergo a transformation in the near future.
RBS 15 Mk IV Gungnir
The RBS 15 Mk IV Gungnir, which is named after Odin’s spear, is the most recent iteration of anti-ship guided missiles that Saab has developed in collaboration with the German company Diehl Defence. Gungnir is not merely a novel missile; it is a comprehensive weapon system that is designed for deployment in the air, on land, and at sea. Three primary variants comprise the system:
- RBS 15 Gungnir Air System—RBS 15 Mk IV’s air configuration, which is predominantly designed for integration with JAS 39 Gripen E/F aircraft, with the potential for adaptation to other multi-role fighter platforms.
- Naval variant, the RBS 15 Gungnir Sea System, is launched from shipboard containerized launchers that are compatible with corvettes, frigates, and smaller surface vessels.
- The RBS 15 Gungnir Land System integrates onto a diverse array of military and commercial chassis, utilizing mobile launchers housed in standard ISO containers. The container launcher is fully networked with command systems and can accommodate up to four missiles, facilitating coordinated launches and dynamic planning within C4ISR.
- The RBS 15 Mk IV missile employs a two-stage propulsion system. During the initial phase, two precursor rockets generate high thrust, and a turbojet then maintains the missile at a high subsonic speed of approximately Mach 0.9. The missile’s range exceeds 300 km, which is a significant increase over the Mk III. It is effective against all types of surface vessels, although the effect varies by class, and its warhead weighs approximately 200 kg, which is equivalent to the typical payload of comparable modern anti-ship missiles.
This warhead size is optimized for a “mission kill,” which is the disabling of a ship’s combat capability, rather than for outright submerging, as emphasized in professional literature (Jane’s Weapons: Naval 2021–2022). 200 kg is adequate to destroy smaller vessels, such as missile boats, patrol ships, or corvettes, and to inflict significant damage on frigates with displacements of a few thousand tonnes in actuality. Such a warhead may have fatal consequences against destroyers, contingent upon the geometry of the hit and the fate of the draw. A sinking may result from a strike in sensitive areas, such as ammunition magazines, engine rooms, or fuel containers. Nevertheless, a single warhead of this magnitude is typically insufficient to completely obliterate larger surface units, such as aircraft carriers or cruisers.
The Moskva case confirms this assertion. The missile cruiser Moskva was struck by two Neptunes; structural features, command and crew factors, and a certain degree of serendipity all contributed to the incident. However, Moskva did not sink promptly on April 13, 2022; it did so a day later during a tow attempt to Sevastopol. Ships that exceed the scale of a cruiser are outfitted with sophisticated fire- and explosion-protection systems. Consequently, a warhead weighing approximately 200 kg frequently inflicts substantial, albeit not necessarily lethal, damage. A cruiser that is well-designed and well-managed, let alone an aircraft carrier, should be capable of withstanding a single hit, although its combat efficacy may be significantly diminished. Combining multiple hits increases the probability of critical injury and is an effective method of confronting such resilient targets. Salvo firing from multiple directions increases this probability.
The AM39 Exocet’s ability to cause sinkings and significant damage to British destroyers and transport ships during the Falklands War is further supported by empirical evidence. The destruction was primarily due to the uncontrollable flames that ensued following the weapons’ impacts. Even the civilian container ship Atlantic Conveyor, which was converted to transport helicopters and aviation equipment, did not submerge immediately after being struck by two Exocets on May 25, 1982. The ship was unable to contain the fires and sank three days later. The results of the American Harpoon anti-ship missile experiments were comparable.
In summary, the objective of munitions in this category is to inflict substantial operational losses, deter an adversary from entering defended areas, and enable effective coastal defense. They intend not to destroy heavy units with a single strike but rather to limit the freedom of action and compel the withdrawal from areas that are in danger. From an operational perspective, it may be more advantageous to inflict substantial damage on a substantial adversary surface unit than to immediately sink it.
According to Saab, Gungnir is equipped with a state-of-the-art multi-channel guidance system that integrates inertial navigation (INS), a modernized datalink, a new active radar seeker that operates in the J-band, and resilient satellite navigation (GPS). This sensor allows for precise targeting in Baltic waters, which are characterized by high electromagnetic loads and intense interference. The missile is capable of autonomously searching for, identifying, and prioritizing targets while maintaining the ability to be retasked in flight via datalink, thanks to the implementation of sophisticated artificial intelligence algorithms. This allows operators to dynamically reassign targets in real time.
The RBS 15 Mk IV is fully integrated with Saab’s 9LV combat-management system, which is a fundamental component of Swedish surface units, according to available sources. The 9LV system enables the complete integration of sensor data, a shared situational picture, automated fire planning, and threat evaluation. The “sensor-to-shooter” cycle, which is the time between target detection and annihilation, is reduced through integration. Therefore, Gungnir is capable of operating within extensive networked C4ISR structures, collaborating with surface ships, coastal batteries, aircraft, and drones.
From development start to initial operational capability
The development of the RBS 15 Mk IV Gungnir commenced in March 2017 as a result of a contract between Saab and the Swedish procurement agency FMV, which was estimated to be worth approximately SEK 3.2 billion (approximately USD 358.5 million). The contract covered the construction of a multi-platform system and the delivery of an initial series of missiles that would be integrated into Visby-class corvettes and JAS 39 Gripen E fighter aircraft. The quantity of missiles that were ordered remains undisclosed.
In July 2018, the Farnborough International Airshow in the United Kingdom was the first time the new missile was publicly disclosed. The Mk IV was procured for the Swedish armed forces in 2017, and production commenced in 2021. The first deployments on Visby corvettes and Gripen E aircraft were purportedly completed in 2022. A substantial contract worth USD 194 million was awarded to Saab in 2020 for the supply of RBS 15 missiles to the German navy. The deliveries are scheduled for 2022–2026. The available information indicates that the German contract pertains to the Mk III version, not the Mk IV. It is anticipated that Mk IV missiles will be deployed on Gripen E aircraft and on Visby corvettes after 2025. The current status is not verifiable from open sources.
Conclusion
The RBS 15 Mk IV Gungnir’s introduction into service will significantly enhance Sweden’s capabilities for coastal defense and naval combat. The latest iteration of missiles boasts a multi-channel guidance system, a high resistance to electronic jamming, and a range that extends beyond 300 km. The Swedish armed forces will be able to identify and eradicate targets more quickly and collaborate more effectively with surface ships, coastal batteries, and air assets by collaborating with the Saab 9LV combat-management system. Operationally, Sweden will acquire an instrument that is capable of effectively managing access corridors in the Baltic Sea.
The Ukrainian anti-ship missile, which resulted in the strike on the cruiser Moskva using Neptunes and the repeated attacks on Black Sea Fleet vessels, may have refocused attention on this category of weapons. The operational lessons are evident: the calculations of stronger naval opponents are profoundly altered by long range, low flight profile, robust EW resistance, and real-time networked target coordination. In the European context, this presents an opportunity for systems in the RBS 15 class, which integrate a sea-skimming profile, modern guidance modules with datalinks, and multi-platform deployment (ship, coastal battery, aircraft).
The Swedish RBS 15, which includes the most recent Mk IV Gungnir, directly addresses the demand for mobile, modular, and interoperable A2/AD weapons that are capable of engaging surface targets beyond visual range and imposing a deterrent effect on fleet logistics and operational tempo. The value of “distributed fires” has also been demonstrated by the experience of the Black Sea: containerized launchers that are connected to C4ISR networks enable the flexible relocation of strike power and reduce the time between target detection and annihilation.
All of these factors enhance the Swedish solution’s export appeal, which is currently in use by users in Sweden, Finland, Germany, Poland, Croatia, Thailand, and Algeria. Additionally, it enables a smooth transition to larger modernization blocks without necessitating doctrinal modifications. The value of RBS 15 is further enhanced by Sweden’s accession to NATO in terms of spare-parts sharing, collaborative training, and interoperability. The current conflict, from an export perspective, validates investment in the exact features on which Swedish anti-ship systems have been constructed for a long time. Consequently, the most recent iteration of the RBS 15 has a greater potential for export success than certain other Saab products.