The recent Israeli airstrike on Damascus is more than just another episode in the long-standing series of tit-for-tat conflicts in the Middle East. It signifies a calculated escalation—a precise kinetic operation within a broader endgame of redrawing power dynamics across the region. As Israel prolongs its multi-front actions against Hamas and Hezbollah and cooperates with the United States to undermine Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a new covert theater has emerged: Southern Syria. What’s unfolding isn’t merely military strategy; it’s a geopolitical poker game where the stakes include regional dominance, national survival, and long-term deterrence.
In this evolving drama, alliances are not what they seem. Enemies turn into partners overnight, and old factions reinvent themselves for short-term benefits. The operational map of Southern Syria shows more than troop movements—it reveals intent, ambition, and betrayal. From the covert dealings of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to the tactical resurgence of Druze militias and the sudden appearance of a tribal army nobody expected, the region is on the edge of a recalibrated conflict that could either reshape Israel’s strategic depth or cause catastrophic backlash.
The Hidden Alliance—Shadows Behind the Curtain
The rumoured cooperation among HTS, Israel, Turkey, and the United States is not just bold—it’s virtually unthinkable by standard standards. HTS, once a key part of al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, is now being rebranded as a ‘manageable rebel force’ in Western discussions. This rebranding enables it to serve as a proxy, used just enough to justify Israeli intervention without engaging in a full-scale conflict.
The deployment of HTS’s weakest battalion into Sweida is not a tactical move—it’s a show. A signal flare meant to provoke an “urgent” Israeli response under the humanitarian pretext of protecting the Druze minority. This alliance signifies a strategic alignment between Israel’s security concerns, Turkey’s expansionist aims in Northern Syria, and America’s effort to curb Iranian influence without sending its troops in large numbers.
This phase is pure deception: a stage-managed crisis designed to tip the regional balance.
The Druze Gambit — Mobilisation or Manipulation?
Traditionally insular and fiercely independent, the Druze community in Syria now faces a role it never sought. Hikmat Al-Hajri’s anticipated declaration of complete Druze mobilisation fulfills several strategic aims.
Optics of Local Resistance. It portrays the movement against HTS as grassroots and indigenous, concealing the foreign influence that guides the choreography.
Legitimising Israeli Entry. A “Druze rebellion” offers moral and diplomatic justification for Israeli military operations deep within Syrian territory.
Internal Displacement of Power. It marginalises pro-Iranian or Assad-loyalist Druze factions by sidelining them from the uprising. The HTS withdrawal, far from being a defeat, is a strategic retreat—part of a larger performance designed to engineer the next phase: symbolic regime changes via the flag.
The Flag Switch—A Bold Signal to Tehran and Beyond
When the Israeli flag rises in Southern Syria—potentially under Druze control—it signifies more than a propaganda victory. It indicates:
– Expansion of Israeli influence: shifting from containment to projection.
– A blow to Iran: losing control over Southern Syria would be both a strategic and psychological defeat.
– Preparation for the Greater Israel Doctrine: a vision that until now was confined to ideological circles begins to materialise.
Al-Jolani, once a pariah, becomes a tool—willingly or not—in Israel’s quiet expansion. The South is not subdued with tanks but through betrayal and symbolism.
The Backfire Ignition—Enter the Tribal Wildcard
When the script seemed complete, the Arab Tribal Army—likely a Bedouin confederation—disrupted the plan. Unlike the HTS or Druze forces, this group is ideologically and strategically independent. They reject all foreign machinations, including Israeli influence, Turkish ambition, or American designs. Their bold warnings to “HTS—”stay out or be “crushed”—suggest not just military capability but also legitimacy among local populations. For Israel, this is a complication. For Iran, it’s a possible opening. And for the United States, it introduces the one factor they cannot program—genuine grassroots resistance with no allegiance to the West or its proxies. The tribal army may now become the ‘X-factor’—not ‘strong enough to dominate the region, but potent enough to prevent any single actor from achieving total control.
The War Triangle—Blood in the Sand
With three distinct forces now occupying Southern Syria—HTS (a proxy tool), the Druze (both insurgents and manipulated actors), and the Tribal Army (local and unpredictable)—the area becomes a dangerous triangle. This arrangement is unstable by design: HTS risks losing its relevance. Druze factions may fracture under pressure from dual manipulation. Tribes will likely resist encroachment, creating a new front in the conflict.
Israel, despite its high-level coordination, may find itself fighting a war it cannot conclude without direct occupation—something it has historically avoided. The war triangle thus forces Israel to reevaluate its cost-benefit analysis. A lot will depend on the dynamics, as these are evolving situations.
Ramifications for Israel’s Neighbours
Syria. Fragmentation deepens. A fragmented Syria benefits Israeli short-term interests but may cause long-term instability, especially if tribal militias turn anti-Israel.
Lebanon. Hezbollah is on high alert. Hezbollah cannot ignore Israeli activities in the South. It will likely increase operations in the Golan, potentially opening a second front. The risk of broader conflict rises if Druze units defect or side with Israel.
Jordan faces internal security concerns. Jordan’s fragile demographic makeup, especially among its Druze and Palestinian populations, could experience spillover radicalisation. Israeli presence near its border is politically sensitive for the Jordanian monarchy.
Turkey is currently navigating a delicate strategic situation. Turkey’s involvement through HTS keeps it influential but risks alienating Arab tribes and overextending its soft power. Erdogan’s gamble could backfire if tribal forces turn against HTS.
Iran. A pretext for escalation.
This situation provides Iran a new axis of resistance. It may activate sleeper cells or militias in Syria and Iraq.
The Peril of Strategic Overreach
Israel’s tactical brilliance is unquestionable. Its ability to carry out precision strikes, manipulate non-state actors, and form clandestine alliances makes it a formidable player. However, the Southern Syria gambit risks one fatal flaw—overreach. Controlling the chaos in an area rife with tribal loyalties, religious divisions, and foreign interests is a challenging task.
What started as a well-planned operation could develop into a prolonged, exhausting insurgency that depletes Israeli resources, increases regional polarisation, and involves reluctant actors.
For the United States, the aim to neutralise Iran without engaging in direct conflict might trigger a regional cascade of instability. For Turkey, the risks of backlash are genuine and increasing.
The chessboard is lively. The pawns are shifting. But if every piece is used to achieve complete control, the board itself might fracture. We are in for interesting times ahead.