The signing of the Saudi-Pakistan mutual defence pact marks a seismic moment for Middle Eastern and South Asian geopolitics. It is more than a symbolic agreement; it represents a deliberate recalibration of regional security priorities, one that New Delhi, Washington, and Tel Aviv alike are closely watching.
This pact cannot be understood in isolation. Its timing and framing indicate that Riyadh and Islamabad aim not only to reaffirm a traditional partnership but to formalize it amid changing great-power alignments. China and Russia have quietly supported this development, viewing it as a counterbalance to the entrenched US-Israel axis in the Gulf and a way to limit India’s expanding strategic partnership with the West.
Military Implications for the Middle East
Consolidation of Gulf Security Architecture
For decades, Saudi Arabia has depended on the United States for its defence umbrella, from the 1991 Gulf War to the ongoing naval presence in the Persian Gulf. The mutual defence pact with Pakistan indicates a subtle shift toward establishing an Islamic-centred security framework that does not rely solely on Washington.
Pakistan’s military offers three assets Riyadh finds attractive:-
- Combat Experience. Pakistan’s army has extensive experience in counter-insurgency and conventional warfare.
- Manpower Availability. Pakistani officers and NCOs already form the backbone of many Gulf militaries’ training programs.
- Nuclear Shadow While the pact does not mention nuclear deterrence, Pakistan’s status as the only Muslim nuclear power adds psychological weight.
This arrangement could eventually see joint Saudi-Pakistani rapid reaction forces, integrated air defence drills, and technology transfers, giving Riyadh a measure of independence from US CENTCOM.
Implications for Israel
Israel’s security doctrine relies on discreet cooperation with Gulf monarchies under the Abraham Accords and a shared threat perception of Iran. A Riyadh-Islamabad security alliance introduces an element of unpredictability.
Pakistan’s Historical Stance. Islamabad has never recognised Israel, and its military alliance with Saudi Arabia might reintroduce pro-Palestinian rhetoric into Gulf security strategies.
Force Posture. Any future conflict involving Israel, whether with Iran or Hezbollah, may now have to consider Pakistan’s indirect involvement on the Gulf side.
While Saudi Arabia has made progress toward normalisation with Israel, this pact could slow or complicate those negotiations.
Economic Implications for the Region
Energy and Infrastructure Leverage
Saudi Arabia continues to be the world’s largest oil exporter, and its sovereign wealth fund has invested billions into Pakistan’s refining and infrastructure sectors. The pact could speed up energy corridor projects connecting Gwadar Port (part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) with Gulf oil terminals.
This has two consequences: –
- Strategic Depth. Gulf energy security gains an overland redundancy via Pakistan, bypassing potential chokepoints in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Chinese Footprint. Beijing, already deeply invested in CPEC, benefits from a more secure corridor for its energy supplies, reducing reliance on US-policed sea lanes.
Financial Stabilisation for Pakistan
The pact is rumoured to be accompanied by a multi-billion-dollar Saudi financial package, including deferred oil payments, direct investment, and soft loans. This would: –
- Shore up Pakistan’s foreign reserves, giving it breathing room in IMF negotiations.
- Enable sustained military modernisation, including procurement of Chinese UAVs, Turkish drones, and indigenous missile upgrades.
- Free up Islamabad’s hand to pursue more aggressive posturing against India, knowing its economic backstop is secure.
Implications for India
Strategic and Military Calculus
For India, the pact introduces a new risk factor in its military planning. Any future cross-border strike or covert action against Pakistan may now carry the potential risk of a Saudi diplomatic or even military response. While direct Saudi intervention remains unlikely, even symbolic gestures like joint statements or fuel supply restrictions could complicate India’s crisis management.
India may respond by: –
- Deepening Gulf Outreach. Strengthening ties with the UAE, Oman, and Bahrain to prevent a unified Gulf front against Indian interests.
- Accelerating Defence Preparedness. Investing in more resilient supply chains for oil and gas imports, diversifying sources to the US, Russia, and Africa.
- Enhancing Missile Defence. Preparing for the possibility of dual-front scenarios, where Indian air defence must consider multiple vectors of escalation.
Energy Security Risks
India imports nearly 60% of its crude oil from the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia being one of its leading suppliers. The pact raises concerns that Riyadh could use energy exports as leverage in a future crisis involving Pakistan. Although this remains a low-probability scenario given Riyadh’s need to maintain stable revenue streams, it highlights India’s vulnerability. It reinforces the importance of strategic oil reserves and diversifying suppliers (e.g., from Russia and Latin America).
China and Russia: The Silent Beneficiaries
Perhaps the least discussed aspect of the pact is its alignment with Chinese and Russian strategic objectives.
China. As the leading investor in CPEC and an increasing influence in Gulf infrastructure projects, Beijing gains a stronger security shield for its Belt and Road Initiative in the region. The agreement helps protect Chinese investments from instability and strengthens its image as a neutral mediator in Middle Eastern politics.
Russia. Moscow, still recovering from Western sanctions, views this pact as a means to reduce US influence in the Gulf. Russia has built ties with Riyadh and Islamabad through arms sales, energy diplomacy, and involvement in multilateral forums like the SCO.
In effect, the pact creates a Eurasian security corridor linking the Gulf, South Asia, and Central Asia, one that strategically sidelines Washington. It complicates India’s balancing act between the QUAD (with the US, Japan, and Australia) and its long-standing partnership with Moscow.
Countering the US-Israel Axis
The pact is also a geopolitical message: the Gulf is no longer willing to be a passive security consumer of US power. By formally integrating Pakistan into its defence framework, Riyadh signals its pursuit of strategic autonomy and a multi-vector foreign policy balancing the US-Israel bloc with Islamic partners, Chinese infrastructure guarantees, and Russian diplomatic backing. This could potentially weaken the US-Israel axis in the region, as it forces both countries to reconsider their strategies in the face of a more diversified and independent Gulf security landscape.
For Washington, this is an uncomfortable development. Its leverage over Pakistan has already waned, and now its closest Gulf partner is institutionalising ties with Islamabad. This could potentially strain the US-Pakistan relationship, as the US may view this pact as a challenge to its influence in the region. For Israel, it introduces a layer of complexity in its outreach to Saudi Arabia, as it must now account for Islamabad’s sensitivities and positions.
India’s Strategic Options
India must adapt to this new environment without overreacting. Several steps are imperative: –
Multi-Alignment Diplomacy. Maintain strong ties with Riyadh while simultaneously enhancing partnerships with the UAE, Israel, and Egypt—creating a diplomatic counterbalance within the Arab world.
Defence Industrial Push. Use the Make-in-India initiative to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers, accelerate indigenous production of drones, loitering munitions, and precision-guided weapons.
Strategic Energy Diversification. Increase LNG imports from the US, invest in African energy projects, and expand strategic petroleum reserves to cover 90 days of consumption.
Strengthen Indo-Russian Coordination. Work with Moscow to ensure that Russian support to Islamabad does not undermine Indian interests, leveraging the long-standing defence partnership.
Conclusion
The Saudi-Pakistan mutual defence pact is more than a bilateral agreement; it is a marker of a new strategic era. By linking the security of the Gulf’s largest economy with South Asia’s most volatile state, Riyadh has raised the stakes for any future conflict involving Pakistan. The quiet approval from Beijing and Moscow suggests that this move is part of a larger, coordinated effort to counter US-Israel dominance in the Middle East.
For India, this is both a challenge and an opportunity. This poses a challenge because it raises the cost of future cross-border operations and complicates energy security planning. This presents an opportunity, as it compels New Delhi to accelerate its defence modernisation, expand its global partnerships, and refine its diplomatic toolkit, thereby ensuring it remains a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
The next decade will determine whether this pact becomes a stabilising force or a catalyst for greater confrontation. India’s ability to act with strategic foresight, economic resilience, and military readiness will decide how well it navigates this turbulent shift in the global order.