As the Islamic world faces the turbulence of ideological realignment and multipolar geopolitics, a subtle but significant contest is playing out between two powerful nations- Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Saudi Arabia, under the de facto leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).
While Turkey aspires to reclaim its historic prestige rooted in the legacy of the Ottoman Caliphate, Saudi Arabia retains the uncontested custodianship of Islam’s holiest sites and profound institutional and economic clout.
Historical Context
Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman Ambition President Erdogan’s ambition to revive the legacy of the Ottoman Empire—often termed “neo-Ottomanism”—is central to understanding Turkey’s reassertion of influence in the Muslim world. This ideology draws from the historical reach and authority of the Ottoman Caliphate, which from the 16th to early 20th centuries held sway over vast territories across the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of Europe.
Erdogan’s political trajectory has steadily embraced a narrative that positions Turkey not merely as a modern republic but as the inheritor of the Ottoman legacy: –
- 2009–2011. Following the Gaza flotilla incident and the Arab Spring, Erdogan emerged as a champion of Sunni Muslim causes, which include advocating for the rights and interests of the Sunni Muslim community, particularly in regions affected by conflict and political upheaval.
- As president, Erdogan amplified Ottoman symbolism in statecraft, from ceremonial uniforms to grandiose architecture (e.g., the Presidential Palace in Ankara).
- The conversion of the Hagia Sophia into a mosque symbolized a reclaiming of Ottoman-Islamic heritage.
Through media, education, religious outreach (via the Diyanet), and defense exports, Erdogan aims to craft a pan-Islamic influence that resonates particularly in post-Ottoman territories.
This neo-Ottoman vision does not seek territorial conquest but rather ideological, cultural, and strategic hegemony, positioning Turkey as the spiritual and political leader of the Sunni Muslim world.
Implication: Erdogan’s ambitions challenge the existing Saudi-led order by invoking historical grandeur, Islamic activism, and geopolitical maneuvering.
Custodianship of the Holy Sites
Saudi Arabia’s Spiritual Supremacy Saudi Arabia is the undisputed Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques—Mecca and Medina, which gives the Kingdom spiritual authority over the global Muslim community.
This control over the Hajj pilgrimage and Islamic rituals confers unparalleled religious legitimacy. Turkey, despite its Islamic revivalism under Erdogan, cannot directly challenge this position without risking a divisive fracture within the Muslim world.
Implication: Turkey’s challenge to Saudi Arabia is ideological and symbolic, not spiritual or custodial.
Strategic Ideologies
Islamic Populism vs. Secular Reformism. Turkey’s ideological framework is anchored in neo-Ottomanism and Sunni political Islam. Erdogan’s governance blends electoral authoritarianism with an assertive Islamic identity that resonates with disenfranchised Muslim populations across the globe. His foreign policy projects Turkey as the moral voice of the Ummah, actively supporting causes like Palestine and Kashmir.
Conversely, Saudi Arabia under MBS is pursuing secular reformism while retaining Wahhabi religious authority. The Kingdom’s governance remains an absolute monarchy, focused on economic modernization, technological advancement, and reducing reliance on clerical establishments. Its Vision 2030 program reflects a commitment to reshaping national identity without discarding religious legitimacy.
Turkey strategically navigates between NATO, Russia, and Iran on the global stage, maintaining ambiguity that keeps its alliances and intentions intriguing. While its historical alignment with the US is evident, Saudi Arabia is now broadening its ties with China and Russia for strategic diversification.
Implication: Turkey appeals to populist Islamic sentiment; Saudi Arabia maintains structured control of religious institutions and wealth.
Geo-Military Dynamics
Hardware Deployed; Not Troops Battle-Hardened. Turkey fields a large standing army of approximately 450,000 personnel and has deployed forces in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan, primarily in advisory or support roles.
In the ongoing OP SINDOOR, two Turkish combatants were killed by the Indian strikes. These troops, amongst many, may have been operating the Turkish equipment.
Despite these engagements, Turkey has not participated in a full-scale conventional war since Cyprus in 1974. Its operational experience is drawn mainly from counterinsurgency operations and limited incursions.
However, Turkish defense hardware—especially drones and missile systems—has been tested in active combat zones, including Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Saudi Arabia, by contrast, maintains a force of around 250,000, structured primarily for internal security and air superiority. Its direct combat experience, such as in the Yemen war, has been marred by high dependency on foreign contractors and limited operational success.
The Kingdom remains import-dependent for defense equipment, primarily sourcing from the US, UK, and France.
Turkey has established overseas military bases in Somalia, Qatar, and northern Syria, signifying its intent for strategic depth. While hosting US bases and regional allies, Saudi Arabia lacks comparable independent expeditionary capabilities.
While Turkey’s troops may not be battle-hardened in high-intensity, peer-state warfare, its military technology has been combat-tested, showcasing its impressive technological evolution. This contrasts with Saudi Arabia, which remains strategically reliant and doctrinally defensive.
Implication: Turkey is nimble and technologically evolving; Saudi Arabia is strategically reliant and doctrinally defensive.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia relies heavily on the United States for its defense and security umbrella. Despite massive arms procurement, the Kingdom remains dependent on U.S. air defense systems, satellite surveillance, and military training. Notably, Saudi Arabia has historically maintained a Pakistan Army brigade for royal protection alongside its own Royal Guard units.
This arrangement presents a paradox for the Saudis in light of Pakistan’s deepening military and ideological ties with Turkey. Should geopolitical tensions escalate or alliances shift, the loyalties of Pakistani military personnel embedded within the Saudi security architecture could become a concern for Riyadh.
Ramifications: –
- Compromised strategic coherence within the Saudi security apparatus.
- Erosion of trust in Pakistani military deployments.
Further pressure on MBS to accelerate Indigenous defense development or seek alternative partners.
Economic and Institutional Leverage Turkey’s nominal GDP is approximately $1.1 trillion, but persistent inflation and currency devaluation hamper its economic influence. Strategic reserves are modest at $110 billion, and fiscal volatility limits their investment outreach. Turkey’s soft power lies in media exports, Islamic populism, and cultural diplomacy through the Diyanet.
With a GDP similar to Turkey’s, Saudi Arabia wields vastly superior financial leverage, exerting its structural power through its economic influence. With over $450 billion in strategic reserves and a $700 billion sovereign wealth fund (Public Investment Fund), the Kingdom actively invests in global infrastructure, technology, and green energy, diversifying its economy and rebranding itself as an international hub for innovation and investment.
Implication: Turkey connects emotionally through Islamic identity; Saudi Arabia exerts structural power through institutional and economic instruments.
Implications for India
India is in a delicate position as the Turkey-Saudi rivalry reshapes regional alignments. While Saudi Arabia maintains robust diplomatic and economic relations with India, especially in energy security, remittances from Indian expatriates, and strategic investment, Turkey has increasingly adopted an adversarial posture.
Turkey’s vocal support for Pakistan’s position on Kashmir, its growing defense cooperation with Islamabad, and its ideological alignment with pan-Islamist causes pose direct challenges to Indian interests. The Pakistan-Turkey defense axis, particularly in drone warfare, naval cooperation, and military training, presents a two-front strategic concern for India alongside the China-Pakistan nexus.
India’s warm ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt have helped to balance this dynamic. In recent years, these nations have moderated their support for Pakistan on international platforms and have welcomed Indian participation in regional development and counterterrorism cooperation.
However, as Turkey expands its influence through Pakistan and Central Asia, India must remain vigilant of Ankara’s ambitions. The ideological undertone of Erdogan’s foreign policy, if left unchecked, could embolden anti-India narratives within the broader Islamic world.
Strategic Considerations for India:
- Deepen strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to counter Turkey’s ideological push.
- Monitor the operational synergy between the Turkish and Pakistani armed forces.
- Strengthen defense partnerships with Greece, Armenia, and Israel—nations wary of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman agenda.
- Invest in public diplomacy and cultural outreach in Central Asia and Africa to preempt Turkish influence.
Conclusion
A Cold Rivalry in a Fragmented Ummah The rivalry between Turkey and Saudi Arabia represents a deep schism in the Islamic world between ideological revivalism and custodial conservatism. Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman aspirations and pan-Islamist identity politics seek to rejuvenate Turkey’s historical role, while MBS’s vision is rooted in reformed leadership, grounded in economic modernization and religious legitimacy.
Turkey has carved out a role as an ideological agitator with growing technological capabilities, supported by a constellation of like-minded actors such as Pakistan and Qatar. However, it lacks the institutional depth, global financial clout, and religious custodianship that Saudi Arabia commands. On the other hand, Riyadh, while financially dominant and spiritually authoritative, finds itself increasingly challenged by a shifting geopolitical terrain where ideology, agility, and technology can outpace wealth and the status quo.
As the Islamic world divides into competing poles—reformist monarchies, populist-Islamist regimes, and resistance alliances—this competition between Ankara and Riyadh will shape the balance of influence across Asia, Africa, and beyond. Whether Turkey’s vision of a renewed Caliphate-like leadership or Saudi Arabia’s modern custodianship prevails, the real test will lie in who can deliver security, prosperity, and unity to a profoundly fragmented Ummah.
Strategic Outlook
Turkey will continue to assert ideological leadership and defense innovation.
Saudi Arabia will rely on financial influence and religious stewardship.
This contest will increasingly influence regional alignments, redefining the power centers of the Muslim world in a multipolar era.