Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is under increasing international pressure to agree to a cease-fire and the release of captives in Gaza, has repeatedly said that Israeli forces are moving closer to achieving their stated goal of eliminating Hamas and destroying its military capabilities. On July 24, 2024, he told the US Congress: “Victory is within reach.”
However, an analysis of Hamas’ military actions since its strikes on Israel on October 7, 2023, based on Israeli and Hamas military declarations, footage from the scene, and interviews with experts and eyewitnesses, calls into question his claims.
Hamas’ Resurgence Amid Israeli Offensives
According to an analysis by the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, the Institute for the Study of War, and CNN (08/05/2024), nearly half of Hamas’ military battalions in northern and central Gaza have regained fighting capabilities after over nine months of brutal Israeli offensives.
Israel dealt a significant blow to the militant group, killing key Hamas members and transforming what was once a professional fighting force into a guerrilla army engaged in an ongoing offensive.
Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas senior leader, was killed in Tehran last week in an attack that Iran blamed on Israel. Israel did not claim responsibility but announced the death of Hamas’ military chief, Mohammad Deif, in an airstrike on July 13 in Gaza.
However, the analysis covering Hamas activity until July 2024 shows that the group appears to have made good use of its limited resources on the ground. New data shows that its forces have returned to cleared regions by the Israeli military, salvaging remnants of battalions to rebuild their strength.
According to Brian Carter, Middle East manager for the Critical Threats Project (CTP) and leader of a joint study with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Hamas and Israeli military activity patterns, the Israelis did not completely clear the area or defeat the militants.
Hamas is ready to fight and wants to fight
In a statement to CNN, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that the majority of Hamas’ brigades have been disbanded, and the majority of the battalions are at a low level of preparedness, indicating they cannot serve as a military foundation.
According to a CNN story, Hamas’ armed wing, known as the “Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades,” is divided into 24 battalions spread across the territory, according to the Israeli military.
As of July 1, 2024, only three of the 24 battalions survived. Their combat efficacy is poor, implying that Israeli forces demolished them, according to CTP and ISW assessments.
A fighting unit is rendered ineffective when it is unable to complete its mission. This is frequently demonstrated by the lack of attacks or by a small number of ineffectual attacks.
The remaining 13 battalions were weakened, able to launch only occasional and generally failed guerrilla operations.
A degraded combat unit sustains losses that impair its capacity to carry out its missions. It exhibits just a few traits of a combat-ready unit. It may have lost numerous commanders quickly, and in Israeli military reports, it may be described as ‘dismantled.’
According to Israeli military sources and research, the battalions in the central Gaza Strip have sustained the least damage in the area. According to Israeli sources, these battalions have not been dealt with appropriately because they are believed to be holding many Israeli hostages.
The CTP, ISW, and CNN study focused on Hamas’ potential to recover, notably the 16 battalions in Gaza’s central and northern regions, which have long been targets of the Israeli operation.
Seven of the 16 battalions were able to rehabilitate, regaining some of their military potential at least once in the last six months. All are situated in the devastated northern section of the Strip.
CNN’s study excludes the southern portion of Gaza due to limited historical data on the condition of the eight Hamas battalions thought to be operating there.
CNN investigated thousands of statements from the ‘Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades’ and the Israeli military, as well as geolocated dozens of recordings of recent Gaza confrontations, to verify and assess the findings of Washington-based think groups.
Ongoing Insurgency
According to American military experts interviewed for the CNN story, Israel’s war strategy, which included a brutal bombing campaign and no post-war plan, contributed to Hamas’ revival.
There are signs of a revival in key hotspots. In the Jabalia refugee camp, Israel reported that in May 2024, it faced ‘fierce’ resistance from three Hamas battalions despite having destroyed the area in a nearly three-month bombing campaign in the fall of 2023. According to the study, Israel carried out four incursions into Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood.
If Hamas units were entirely destroyed, Israeli forces would not be fighting, said retired US Army Colonel Peter Mansoor, who assisted in the deployment of an additional 30,000 US troops in Iraq in 2007—a counterinsurgency strategy known as ‘the surge.’
Mansoor was the executive officer for retired General David Petraeus, who was in charge of the multinational forces led by the US.
The fact that they are still in Gaza, seeking to defeat elements of Hamas battalions, informs me that Prime Minister Netanyahu is mistaken he said. ‘Hamas’s ability to regain combat strength has not weakened, he added.
American military analysts have repeatedly praised the surge as a successful strategy for Israel. In a Foreign Affairs piece, its architect, Petraeus, encouraged Israel to “sharply distinguish” Hamas from civilians to avoid the reunification of irreconcilable Hamas groups. He also encouraged Israel to back an alternative administration in Gaza.
Officials in the Biden administration, notably Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have chastised Israel for failing to engage in post-war planning.
Israel claims to have killed half of Hamas’ commanders and over 14,000 fighters in Gaza. Hamas rejects these figures but does not disclose casualty statistics. Since the beginning of the war, the Gaza Ministry of Health reports that almost 40,000 Palestinians have been killed, and over 91,000 have been wounded.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched attacks on Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 250.
A senior Israeli army officer, whose identity CNN did not reveal, likened the Gaza campaign to “a marathon runner who does not know where the stadium is.” You keep running, unsure if you’re going in the correct direction.
In May 2024, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that Israel’s impending attack in Rafah, where approximately 1.5 million internally displaced people had resided, may result in “extremely high civilian losses” and leave Israel with a “sustained insurgency.” According to Blinken, without a plan to replace Hamas, Gaza will be left with a “vacuum” that is likely to be filled with “chaos, anarchy, and ultimately Hamas again.”
According to CNN sources on the ground in Gaza, Hamas fighters dressed as civilians are overseeing bombed-out markets, converting destroyed structures into spaces for militants and government officials, and hiding their weapons under the wreckage.
Israel’s Struggles in Northern Gaza
Hamas has a stronger presence in northern Gaza than you can imagine, according to a Palestinian who recently left the region and wishes to remain anonymous for fear of punishment.
They’re among the citizens. This allows them to rebuild strength, according to the father, who lost nearly 40 members of his family in an Israeli airstrike.
Another Palestinian reported seeing an improvised Hamas prison in Gaza City, where Palestinians accused of looting are kept. He said that thieves are punished by tying their wrists and blindfolding them. They converted a burned room into a prison cell and installed a bucket for their toilet needs.
During the first three months of its offensive, Israel concentrated on Gaza’s most heavily inhabited area.
During the first three months of its offensive, Israel focused on this portion of Gaza, which was the most densely populated at the time.
Hundreds of heavy munitions destroyed Gaza City, its surrounds, and refugee camps, causing over 80% of the people to seek relative safety in southern Gaza. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, Israeli forces had killed over 21,000 Palestinians by the end of December. According to the UN, women and children accounted for more than half of those slain.
On January 7, 2024, the Israeli forces claimed to have eliminated Hamas’ command structures in northern Gaza.
Reports from multiple sources indicate a rapid resurgence of Hamas activity in Gaza following the Israeli withdrawal from northern areas in January. Observers noted attacks on Israeli patrols in eastern Gaza City within days of the pullback. In subsequent weeks, video footage emerged appearing to show Hamas militants emerging from the rubble, likely utilizing the extensive tunnel network known to exist in the region.
Carter, an analyst from CTP, reported noticing Hamas’s reemergence less than a week after Israel’s withdrawal, with the effect continuing throughout Gaza. He described it as a defining process for Hamas battalions.
Hamas has claimed to have recruited thousands of new fighters since the onset of the war. Emily Harding, director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, acknowledged that while Israel had killed many Hamas militants, the group maintains a presence and is likely to experience a surge in recruitment due to Israel’s actions.
Persistent Guerrilla Tactics of Hamas
At least one Israeli military source agrees with Hamas’ assessment but says it will be considerably more difficult for Hamas to replace the commanders it has lost.
Reports from a retired senior Israeli officer suggest that Hamas began recruiting new members three to four months ago, with estimates indicating several thousand new recruits. The officer noted that while Hamas has successfully recruited at the soldier level, they face significant challenges in replacing commanders, many of whom are considered difficult to substitute.
Despite the damage inflicted upon it, the armed wing of Hamas, known as the Qassam Brigades, continues to engage Israeli forces in repeated combat encounters.
Robert Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago and author of several books on counterinsurgency, likened the situation to a game of whack-a-mole. He explained that as Israel directs the civilian population to move to central and southern areas, Hamas fighters move along with them. Pape emphasized that Hamas, including its personnel, fighters, leaders, and supporters, is deeply integrated within the Palestinian population, having established strong ties over decades.
ISW and CTP analyses reveal that recovery happened in two distinct ways. Some Qassam Brigade units were reorganized by merging severely deteriorated cells into combat-ready battalions. Others were rejuvenated by enlisting new fighters and creating new weapons from explosives left behind by Israeli forces.
Because their camps have been mostly destroyed, the Qassam Brigades will be unable to provide comprehensive training for their new fighters.
The initial platoons have been substantially reduced, forcing Hamas to resort to guerrilla tactics such as booby traps and ambushes, which are frequently put up as Israeli troops enter the core of a camp or location.
The cycle of resurgence was shown at the Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza, which was nearly wiped off the map by some of Israel’s most powerful weapons during the war’s early stages.
Following three months of intense shelling, Israel proclaimed the three battalions stationed there “dismantled.” Less than six months later, it was claimed that the units had recovered. Israeli soldiers staged another entry into the camp, and the military claimed they encountered some of the “fiercest fighting” since the beginning of the war.
When Israeli soldiers left Jabalya on May 31, 2024, an examination of the three battalions revealed that they had been damaged but not completely destroyed.
Growing Discontent Among Gaza’s Population
Analysts suggest that Israel’s actions may be inadvertently strengthening Hamas’s position. Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago, argues that the Israeli military operations are generating additional political anger, grief, and emotions among the Palestinian population, which could lead to an increase in militant recruitment.
Public opinion on Hamas in Gaza is difficult to gauge, but there are hints of simmering discontent.
A poll conducted by the ‘Arab Barometer only weeks before the war began revealed that the majority of Gaza residents polled were dissatisfied with how the organization was administering the enclave.
When Palestinians in Gaza criticize Hamas, they do so quietly, worried that a member of the organization would hear them. “They gave Israel a reason to destroy us,” said one unidentified source, alluding to the Hamas-led attacks on October 7.
Reports from humanitarian workers in Gaza indicate a growing sense of frustration and anger among the local population. Arwa Damon, a former CNN correspondent and current president of the INARA humanitarian organization, observed a marked increase in open expressions of discontent during her visit to Gaza in June 2024. This was her second trip to the region since the onset of the war.
Many Palestinians in Gaza tell of frantic attempts to give a wide berth to Hamas members, derisively referred to as “the green men.” However, the large explosion radius of Israel’s heavy weapons, combined with regular raids on IDP camps and hospitals where it alleges Hamas fighters are hiding, makes this effort practically impossible.
The lack of a governing organization, combined with Israel’s limited humanitarian aid, exacerbates the despondency. According to on-the-ground sources, looting and rare clan confrontations are on the rise, and the UN says that infectious illnesses such as polio, which was previously eradicated in Gaza, are spreading quickly.
Damon reported observing increasing lawlessness and anarchy in Gaza, which she suggested might be deliberately orchestrated. She expressed concern that these conditions could allow Hamas or a similar organization to regain power. Damon noted that once the bombing ceases, people will likely seek the restoration of order and rule of law.
The Need for a Political Solution in Gaza
Damon also emphasized that the conflict would ultimately require a political solution rather than a military victory to reach its conclusion.
Proponents of the “surge” strategy in Iraq in 2007 outlined three main principles of counterinsurgency: clear the area of insurgents, hold the territory and build relationships with local communities.
Experts suggest this strategy is nearly impossible to adapt in Gaza. Emily Harding from CSIS explained that holding territory involves establishing forward operating bases, getting to know local people, and building trust so they report on returning insurgents.
Some argue that a political settlement to the prolonged conflict is more urgent than ever without a lasting military solution.
Retired Colonel Mansour stated that creating a Palestinian state is the only way to end the conflict, but Palestinians need to understand that Israel is not going anywhere. He noted that the current Israeli government refuses to support any state for the Palestinians.
The war in Gaza has been described as a “black hole” for Israel. This term is a metaphor for complex situations that can lead to catastrophe.
The potential for catastrophe extends beyond Gaza to Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, with Israel at the epicenter of this “black hole.”