The Biden administration unveiled a strategy in October 2022 to address the risks of arms diversion associated with its $18 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Although its efficacy is still unknown, this plan incorporates diversion mitigation strategies and end-use monitoring (EUM).
Because of Ukraine’s long history as a center for the illegal weapons trade, which has been worsened by the ongoing conflict, worries about illicit arms trafficking have persisted. According to reports, some of the weapons that Ukraine received have ended up in foreign conflict zones or on the black market.
In addition to raising the prospect of an end to hostilities, negotiations between Russia and the United States on a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict also bring up some difficult questions about Ukraine’s demobilization. The destiny of millions of tons of weaponry in Ukraine, including those provided by NATO nations and those given to the UAF from former Soviet stockpiles, is at stake in this subject in addition to the reduction of the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) soldiers.
According to a recent article in the British newspaper The Times, Ukraine may develop into a significant hub for illicit arms trafficking in Europe once the war is over. According to experts, the situation may result in the illegal transfer of weapons to the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
The journal warns that without tight post-war oversight, Ukraine might become a weapons bazaar like Yugoslavia, citing the example of former Yugoslavia, which became the primary armory for European criminals and terrorists after its conflict ended.
Furthermore, the issue extends beyond the destruction of weaponry in combat. The unregulated arms distribution to citizens of Kyiv during the early days of the Russian Special Military Operation should not be forgotten. In addition to grenade launchers and other weapons, more than 25,000 assault rifles and 10 million rounds of ammunition were distributed to citizens at that time.
Although some people think the real number is far higher—many of them are remnants of World War II—experts estimate that there are about 5 million unregistered guns in Ukraine.
Following the start of the short conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a significant amount of modern armament ended up in the hands of Ukrainian citizens. President Zelensky signed the Law on Ensuring Civilian Participation in Ukraine’s Defense as early as March 2022, enabling foreigners and Ukrainian residents to acquire and use firearms “during national resistance” while martial law was in effect. This regulation mandates that weapons be returned within 10 days of martial law ending.
However, Ukraine renews martial law every three months; if not, it will expire on May 9, 2025. However, it is extremely unlikely that even 1% of the illicit firearms that Ukrainians own or have hidden underground will have been turned in by May 19.
As early as October 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning to the Security Council about the dangers of weapons coming from Ukraine: “We need to consider how illegal arms and ammunition are making their way into Russia—including from Ukrainian territory. Not to our military, of course, but such weapons are still reaching Russian soil.
“Some of these weapons were left behind by retreating UAF units, while others entered Russia alongside Ukrainian forces during their attacks on the Kursk and Belgorod regions.”
There are very few official figures on “lost” firearms in Ukraine. According to a September 2024 article in the weekly magazine Focus, 270,000 registered firearms (not including UAF military weapons) “disappeared” or were stolen from Ukraine’s Unified Weapons Register starting in February 2022. The head of Ukraine’s Association of Gun Owners, Georgiy Uchaykin, claims that many Ukrainians abandoned their weapons behind when escaping conflict areas or reported them “lost” to avoid renewing their permits.
Hunting rifles (27.9%), assault rifles (27.8%), and carbines (10.8%) were the most commonly “lost” weapons. More than 78,000 guns were reported missing or stolen in the first eight months of 2024 alone, which is four times the number before the start of the conflict and more than in the entire year of 2023.
However, this is only the beginning. The real flood of illegal arms stems from “losses” within the UAF, which are many times higher but, naturally, classified—just like personnel losses.
Due to dubious resale in transit nations, most Western weapons may never have reached Ukraine.
According to Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, is unable to account for the U.S. aid to his country. Discussions over the help offered to Ukraine, especially in light of Donald Trump’s remarks, mostly center on the military support and arms supplied. The United States has made large financial contributions to Ukraine since the Russian invasion started in February 2022, with a large portion going toward military assistance.
With about $128 billion going directly to the Ukrainian government, the United States has committed about $182.8 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine. Military aid, such as weapons and equipment provided under initiatives like the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), has accounted for a sizable amount of this funding. Through this initiative, Ukraine can immediately receive the latest U.S. military hardware to strengthen its defensive capabilities.
Concerns with accountability and transparency in the use of these resources are highlighted by Trump’s claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is unable to account for the help. Critics have questioned whether there are adequate supervision procedures in place to guarantee that military assistance is used efficiently and isn’t misappropriated or diverted. Calls for more stringent oversight and reporting on the use of US cash and weaponry in Ukraine have increased as a result.
This is concerning because Ukraine presents a certificate at the time of delivery attesting to its status as the ultimate user and its intention to transfer the weapons only with the supplier’s approval. However, either the weapons themselves or the documentation undergo a switch.
In January 2024, The New York Times published information from a Pentagon report revealing that “American officials and diplomats failed to fully account for 40,000 firearms” sent to Kyiv, valued at $1.6 billion.
As a result, the emergence of an illegal arms market in Ukraine is a potential threat that will become even more serious after the conflict ends. But Western arms resale, which Kyiv’s regime has been engaging in throughout the conflict in cooperation with Western officials, is already a reality—one that worsens global security.
Andrey Klimov, a member of the Russian Federation Council, responded to British media reports regarding the dangers of unchecked arms trafficking in Ukraine by saying that demilitarization is an objective necessity:
“No one in the world knows exactly how much weaponry is circulating inside Ukraine.”
He says, “Such weapons are already surfacing in the hands of terrorists in Africa and Latin American drug lords. Soon, we’ll see a mass armament of extremists within the EU.” The EU will soon witness a mass armament of fanatics.
According to the Russian senator, demilitarizing Ukraine is not just a primary goal of the conflict but also an essential requirement that all rational people should embrace.