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China to Build Fourth Carrier, Eyes Nuclear Option, Operate Beyond South China Sea

After purchasing the ex-Ukrainian aircraft carrier Varyag, renamed CNS Liaoning, for “just” 20 million euros in 2000, China built the CNS Shandong. However, the aircraft operations they can carry out are limited in flexibility due to the fuel and ammunition-carrying capacity of their embarked fighter-bombers. Furthermore, they are unable to deploy airborne early warning aircraft, a critical service that helicopters currently perform.

According to Rira Momma, a professor at Takushoku University Institute of International Studies in Tokyo, based on data from the Japanese Ministry of Defence last year, these two boats rarely leave the South China Sea and remain close to Chinese coastal airfields.

Undoubtedly, the Chinese Navy must take additional measures to protect a carrier strike group, particularly in submarine warfare. Last year, analysts told Reuters that they held this outlook.

Nonetheless, Chinese naval aviation capabilities continue to improve significantly. China’s third aircraft carrier, the CNS Fujian, was launched in June 2022. Unlike its predecessors, it is in CATOBAR configuration, which means it has electromagnetic catapults and arresting gear. Concurrently, the PLAN began developing the KJ-600, an airborne early warning aircraft and a naval variant of the 5th generation J-35 fighter bomber (previously FC-31 “Gyrfalcon”).

The CNS Fujian, with a displacement of 80,000 tonnes and a length of 320 metres, will be the Chinese Navy’s most formidable vessel. However, unlike its French and American equivalents (both in CATOBAR configuration), it will lack nuclear propulsion. After testing its three catapults in November, it is anticipated to begin sea trials shortly.

However, having three carriers is insufficient for the PLAN, as each carrier spends one-third of its time in maintenance, one-third in training, and one-third in operations. Having three means that the Chinese Navy can only have one carrier ready at any given moment, according to experts cited by the Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) newspaper.

Only the CNS Shandong is now active, while the CNS Liaoning has recently returned to sea with a scale model of the J-35 on its flight deck after a year of maintenance.

As a result, Admiral Yuan Huazhi, the PLAN’s political commissar, made an announcement on the sidelines of the 14th National People’s Congress’s second session on March 6, which was no surprise.

China will “soon build its fourth aircraft carrier and answer the question of whether it will have nuclear propulsion,” said Admiral Yuan. “We are building aircraft carriers to protect our national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he added, suggesting they should also “sail further away from Chinese coastal waters.”

Admiral Yuan was unequivocal about China’s ability to deal with American aircraft carriers. “Trust us, we can. We don’t just deal with aircraft carriers. We also address (potential threats) comprehensively,” he responded.

Last year, the Jiangnan Changxing shipyard released a project for a new aircraft carrier similar to the one proposed by the PLAN’s political commissar. Apparently, it was inspired by the USS Gerald Ford and the French idea for a next-generation aircraft carrier (PA NG), which had an island at the back of the flight deck.

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