Rare Earth Elements (REES) have emerged as the new strategic frontier in global geopolitics. These 17 metallic elements—critical to advanced electronics, renewable energy, and defense systems—are the building blocks of the digital and green economies. Despite their geological abundance, the difficulty lies in economically viable extraction and processing, a domain China has come to dominate.
As global supply chains become weaponized, countries like the United States are scrambling to reduce their dependence on China’s near-monopoly over REEs. Given their untapped mineral wealth, South and Central Asia, particularly Pakistan and Afghanistan, have suddenly become critical players in this scramble. However, this mineral potential is embedded in profound instability, marked by internal insurgencies, great power rivalries, and the evolving role of the Taliban in regional politics.
India, which shares borders and strategic rivalries with China and Pakistan, finds itself at the nexus of this new “mineral Cold War.” The implications for its sovereignty, economic future, and regional influence are profound.
The Rise of Rare Earths: A Historical Glimpse
The strategic value of REEs came into sharp focus during the Cold War when they were first utilized in advanced missile guidance systems. This historical context underscores the weight of past decisions on the current situation. Their importance grew exponentially in the post-Cold War period with the advent of smartphones, electric vehicles, lasers, and wind turbines.
China’s rapid industrialization in the late 20th century saw it invest heavily in mining and processing infrastructure. By the 2010s, it had secured control over more than 90% of the world’s REE supply chain—an economic feat turned into geopolitical leverage. This was demonstrated during a maritime dispute with Japan, where China imposed a strategic embargo on REE exports, thereby disrupting Japan’s high-tech industries and awakening the world to China’s strategic advantage in the rare earth market.
Since then, the United States and its allies have sought to identify alternative sources of REEs. Countries like Australia and Canada emerged as reliable partners. However, the discovery of substantial REE reserves in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and mineral-rich zones of Afghanistan has introduced a new frontier, rife with promise and peril. This new frontier’s potential benefits and risks evoke both excitement and apprehension.
Pakistan’s Mineral Frontier and the Balochistan Conundrum
Balochistan, Pakistan’s most prominent and least developed province, is estimated to hold 12 of the 17 known rare earth elements. These mineral riches, however, lie beneath the scars of decades-long ethnic conflict. The Baloch people have accused the Pakistani state of systematically excluding them from the fruits of their land while militarizing the region in the name of development and security.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is at the heart of this contestation. It is a multi-billion-dollar infrastructure initiative that cuts through Balochistan and culminates at the Gwadar Port. While CPEC promises to bring roads, railways, and energy to Pakistan, it has also intensified local grievances. Baloch separatist movements see it as a new colonial enterprise designed to extract resources while suppressing Indigenous rights.
Pakistan’s REE potential is strategically attractive but politically fraught for the United States. American companies and diplomats have treaded cautiously, aware that open involvement could destabilize a volatile province. In contrast, China has adopted a more assertive model—partnering directly with the Pakistani state, securing military protection for its workers, and embedding itself into the region’s economic fabric.
The Taliban and Afghanistan’s Strategic Resources
Afghanistan, often viewed through the lens of conflict and insurgency, is also one of the most mineral-rich countries in the world. It’s estimated that lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earth reserves are valued at over $3 trillion. For years, the country’s instability prevented meaningful exploitation of these resources.
However, the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 has changed the dynamics. While global powers debate the regime’s legitimacy, China has taken a pragmatic approach, entering preliminary mining agreements. One such agreement is for the Aynak copper mine, a significant resource once a Soviet Project and has now resurfaced as a cornerstone of Chinese investment. Meanwhile, lithium deposits in southern provinces like Helmand, which are crucial for producing batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, are attracting fresh attention.
The Taliban, struggling with international isolation, sees minerals as a path to legitimacy and revenue. China’s promise of investment, jobs, and infrastructure is far more appealing than Western conditional aid. This evolving Sino-Taliban axis poses a challenge for the U.S., which fears Afghanistan will become another mineral hub in China’s global REE chain.
The United States vs. China: Strategic Comparisons
The U.S. and China represent fundamentally different approaches to resource diplomacy in the region. While the U.S. leans on multilateral partnerships and cautious engagement, China prefers direct bilateral pacts backed by economic muscle and infrastructure investments.
| Strategic Domain | US | China |
| Engagement Mode | Strategic, conditional partnerships | Direct pacts, unconditional investment |
| Security Focus | Surveillance, drone monitoring, covert links | Non-interference, internal policing by host states |
| Diplomatic Narrative | Democratic Transperacy | Democratic Transparency |
| Infrastructure | Selective Grants and Aid | CPEC, port access, logistics hubs |
| Local Engagement | Limited, often Direct | State-to-state, ignoring insurgent voices |
This divergence in approaches is evident in Balochistan and Afghanistan. While the U.S. remains cautious of insurgent zones, China is willing to take risks, often insulating its projects with private security or local military backing.
India: At the Crossroads of Strategy and Sovereignty
India’s strategic geography places it at the epicenter of the unfolding competition for rare earth elements (REEs) in South-Central Asia. Pakistan and China border India—two key players in the emerging mineral great game—under economic and geopolitical pressure. With China asserting influence through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Afghanistan emerging as a strategic resource node under the Taliban, India’s location becomes not just a geographical fact but a strategic imperative. It must navigate a volatile environment shaped by high-stakes mineral diplomacy.
India has begun to deploy a layered and pragmatic strategy to address this multidimensional challenge across several fronts.
Indigenous REE Exploration and Domestic Production Expansion
India has recognized the importance of self-sufficiency in critical mineral resources. In recent years, the government has intensified geological surveys and authorized exploration of rare earth elements across several states, including Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Arunachal Pradesh. These regions are known for monazite-rich sands, one of the primary sources of light rare earths like cerium and neodymium—this domestic potential offers hope in India’s quest for rare earth elements.
Through public-sector units like Indian Rare Earths Ltd. (IREL) and private-public partnerships, India aims to scale its domestic mining and processing capabilities. New policies have also been introduced to liberalize exploration and allow foreign investment under-regulated frameworks, reflecting a shift from caution to strategic urgency.
However, India still lags in REE refining and processing technology, much of which is currently dominated by China. Bridging this gap will be essential to achieving true mineral independence.
Strategic Alliances Through the Quad and Beyond
In recognition of the global dimensions of the REE supply chain, India has sought to embed itself into multilateral alliances, most notably the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving the U.S., Japan, and Australia. These nations are major producers or processors of rare earths and other critical minerals.
India has collaborated with Australia on a Critical Minerals Partnership to secure long-term imports of lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Similarly, Indian companies are exploring joint ventures with Japanese firms specializing in advanced mineral separation technologies. In 2021, the India-U.S. strategic energy partnership was broadened to include cooperation on clean energy minerals, further solidifying mineral diplomacy.
These alliances serve a dual purpose: they enhance India’s access to raw materials and tech, and counterbalance China’s dominance in the REE ecosystem by forming resilient, diversified supply chains among democracies.
Engagement with Central Asia for Resource Access and Trade Corridors
India has also turned westward in search of opportunities to bypass traditional choke points. Through platforms like the India-Central Asia Dialogue and bilateral partnerships with countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, India seeks access to untapped mineral reserves and energy sources in the region.
This regional outreach is not limited to exploration—it extends to logistics and connectivity. India has invested in the Chabahar Port in Iran, offering a direct route to Afghanistan and Central Asia without relying on Pakistan-controlled land corridors. This maritime strategy is critical for securing alternative supply lines for minerals and energy, especially as CPEC increasingly bypasses Indian interests.
Moreover, India is also exploring possibilities to connect its northeastern states through Myanmar to Southeast Asia, establishing additional mineral transit routes via the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway.
Soft Power and Humanitarian Diplomacy in Post-Taliban Afghanistan
Despite being diplomatically sidelined after the Taliban’s 2021 return to power, India has continued to assert influence in Afghanistan through soft power initiatives and humanitarian outreach. Historically, India was one of the largest regional donors to Afghan infrastructure, having built roads, dams, the Afghan Parliament building, and schools across the country.
Since the Taliban takeover, India has carefully re-engaged through non-political channels, focusing on humanitarian aid, food, and medicine. This maintains India’s moral credibility and keeps it engaged with the Afghan populace, laying the groundwork for future strategic re-entry should the political climate become more favorable.
While India has yet to recognize the Taliban regime, its recent low-profile diplomatic outreach to Kabul indicates a willingness to engage pragmatically, especially if resource security or regional connectivity necessitates it. This calibrated approach ensures India is not left out of Afghanistan’s mineral future, even if it must wait for a more stable window of opportunity.
Minerals, Might, and the Future of Asia
The story of rare earth elements in South-Central Asia is not just about mining—it is about power, politics, and people. Pakistan and Afghanistan are sitting on mineral goldmines, yet their ability to benefit depends on governance, peace, and equitable development. China and the U.S. perceive these minerals as strategic tools, but the people of the region will ultimately determine the winners or losers.
For India, this is a moment of both reckoning and opportunity. They can no longer afford to be passive observers. Through innovative alliances, indigenous innovation, and proactive diplomacy, it can chart a path that safeguards its sovereignty and strengthens its role in the emerging mineral economy.
The rare earth race is on, and South Asia is its new battleground.