If a reported export schedule for China is finalized, Russia may be compelled to achieve its highest-ever annual production rate of the Il-78 aerial refueling tanker. The Aviastar plant in Ulyanovsk would need to achieve production levels that have never been achieved before to meet the proposed delivery timeline.
Production Plans May Be Modified by Export Orders
Aviastar’s production program for 2026 comprises six aircraft, with four of them potentially allocated to an export customer who is believed to be China. To fulfill the reported export commitments, Russia would be required to manufacture eight Il-78 tankers annually over the next two years if those four aircraft are delivered on schedule.
The plant’s most recent production record would be considerably exceeded by such an output. Aviastar completed six aircraft in 2023 and 2024, and production increased marginally to seven aircraft in 2025, according to Zakharov. Consequently, the facility would establish a new production benchmark by achieving eight tankers annually.
Aviastar Faces a Significant Manufacturing Challenge
The Il-78 is built at Aviastar on the Il-76MD-90A transport aircraft production line. Before receiving specialized aerial refueling equipment, fuel management systems, and associated modifications, each tanker shares its basic airframe with the transport variant.
To increase the output of tankers, it would be necessary to either increase the overall production or make adjustments to the allocation of assembly positions, as both transport aircraft and tankers compete for the same manufacturing capacity. In addition to guaranteeing that final assembly and flight testing are conducted according to schedule, the expansion of production necessitates the preservation of engine, avionics, structural components, and skilled labor supplies.
Although Aviastar has progressively increased production in recent years, doubling tanker deliveries in comparison to historical output would necessitate sustained industrial expansion rather than a temporary surge.
China’s Need for Additional Tankers
The discussion regarding China’s need for additional aerial refueling aircraft has been reignited by reports of renewed negotiations. The demand for aerial refueling is on the rise as the People’s Liberation Army Air Force introduces more long-range combat aircraft, such as the J-20 stealth fighter and other platforms designed for operations over greater distances, although China has expanded its fleet of indigenous YY-20 tankers.
The capacity of additional tankers improves the capacity of combat aircraft, extends their operational range, and enables a greater number of aircraft to remain on station during long-range missions. As China expands its air operations throughout the western Pacific, these capabilities have become increasingly important.
A Long History of Il-78 Discussions
This would be the second occasion on which Russia and China have engaged in discussions regarding the delivery of Il-78. Although the two nations have previously negotiated contracts for Il-76 military transport aircraft and Il-78 tankers, the implementation of these agreements was delayed due to pricing and production complications.
Through Ukraine, China ultimately acquired multiple Il-78 aircraft, and Russian maintenance facilities have previously maintained one or more of these tankers.
Negotiations regarding newer production aircraft have restarted, as indicated by the most recent reports, rather than refurbished legacy platforms.
The Importance of the Il-78
The Il-78 is the primary dedicated aerial refueling aircraft of Russia and is a derivative of the Il-76 strategic military transport. The Ilyushin Design Bureau developed the aircraft during the Soviet era. It was first flown in 1983 and entered service in 1984. The original Il-78, the improved Il-78M, and the most recent Il-78M-90A, which is based on the Il-76MD-90A airframe, are among the over 50 Il-78 family aircraft that have been built.
Currently, only a limited number of air forces operate the Il-78 family. Russia continues to be the largest operator, with approximately 19 aircraft currently in service and an additional Il-78M-90A tanker on order. India currently operates six Il-78MKI aircraft, Pakistan has four Il-78MP tankers, Algeria operates four Il-78s, and China has three Il-78s that were acquired from Ukraine. China would become one of the world’s largest operators of the type, second only to Russia, if the reported procurement of approximately 20 new Russian-built Il-78M-90As is finalized.
The aircraft is capable of refueling multiple aircraft during a mission, as it is equipped with three hose-and-drogue refueling stations—two located under the wings and one on the fuselage centerline. Modern variants maintain the long-range performance of the Il-76 platform while incorporating PS-90A-76 engines, upgraded avionics, and improved fuel efficiency. One of the most critical strategic support aircraft in the Russian aerospace inventory, the Il-78 continues to serve as a critical force multiplier by extending the operational range and endurance of fighters, bombers, and transport aircraft.
Production Targets Will Test Russia’s Aerospace Industry
The production figures that have been reported are still based on industry discussions, rather than confirmed contract announcements. The final size and delivery schedule of any new Il-78 export agreement have not been publicly confirmed by either Russian authorities or Chinese officials.
Nevertheless, Aviastar would be required to sustain a production tempo that exceeds that of the tanker program if the reported timeline is implemented. This would necessitate consistent manufacturing performance over an extended period of time, while also accommodating Russia’s own military aviation requirements.
The plant must maintain production capacity, ensure a stable supply chain, and execute one of Russia’s most rigorous manufacturing schedules to produce eight Il-78 aircraft annually.