Donald J. Trump emerged victorious and poised to lead the nation once more in the recent US presidential election. Years after his controversial departure, his return to the White House has already intensified debates about America’s future. The choice for many voters wasn’t merely between Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris, but between Trump and the established institutions and political orthodoxy he has consistently challenged.
Why Trump Won: A Vote Against the Establishment
Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office is both a rejection of the traditional American political elite and a testament to the public’s frustration with Washington’s status quo. To his supporters, a vote for Trump was to disrupt an entrenched establishment perceived as failing to serve the American people effectively. This phenomenon aligns with the concept of “creative destruction” from economic theory, where new leaders or policies dismantle outdated systems to foster growth and change. Trump’s victory is a public rebuke of the conventional political and economic systems that have dominated since the Cold War.
This election outcome marks a collective disillusionment with both major political parties, the military establishment, and intelligence agencies, all of whom aligned against Trump. By aligning herself with elite figures like Liz Cheney and General Mark Milley, Kamala Harris inadvertently associated herself with an establishment many perceive as out of touch. Trump’s victory signals that his supporters are more interested in dismantling outdated structures than aligning with a traditional party’s policy agenda.
Trump’s Vision and Agenda
Immigration and the Southern Border
A cornerstone of Trump’s agenda is strict immigration reform. In his second term, he plans to conduct mass deportations, increase border security with thousands more agents, and build detention facilities. Key initiatives include revoking “catch-and-release” policies and reinstating the controversial “Remain in Mexico” policy. However, legal challenges and funding constraints could complicate these goals. Critics argue that the scale of his plans could strain government resources, while his supporters see this as a long-overdue correction to immigration policy.
Trade Policy and Tariffs
Aggressive tariffs, such as a 10–20% general import tariff and a higher 60% tariff on Chinese goods, are the focal point of Trump’s trade policy. He aims to reduce the US trade deficit and encourage domestic manufacturing. Trump could leverage executive powers to enact these tariffs, though international backlash is expected, especially from European allies who may retaliate with tariffs on US exports. While some trade experts view his tariff plans as overly ambitious, Trump’s campaign underscores his commitment to economic nationalism.
Healthcare and Abortion Policies
In healthcare, Trump has promised to overhaul federal health agencies, likely led by vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to focus on “alternative” health practices. This could lead to a shift in the conversation from conventional health policy to one where federal health institutions’ skepticism takes center stage. Regarding abortion, Trump has distanced himself from the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, stating that he would veto federal bans but wouldn’t support expanding abortion access. Health experts and advocates worry about the impact of these positions on public health and access to care.
Climate Change and Energy Policies
Trump’s administration plans to dismantle much of Biden’s climate agenda, including regulations targeting greenhouse gas emissions. Despite current record-high production levels, his goal is to increase domestic energy production, especially oil, coal, and gas. Trump’s stance on energy aligns with his “America First” ethos, emphasizing energy independence over environmental sustainability.
Education Reform
Trump has pledged to limit federal funding for educational institutions that teach about racial and gender issues, citing the need for such instruction to uphold “patriotic values.” He aims to prevent transgender women from participating in women’s sports and reinstate his 1776 Commission, promoting a “patriotic” interpretation of American history. Trump’s approach mirrors his wider criticism of progressive educational trends, with the Department of Education potentially implementing these changes through executive actions.
Race and Gender in Schools
The 2024 Republican platform strongly opposes the teaching of race and gender issues in schools, a stance Trump has embraced. He has vowed to bar transgender women from competing on women’s sports teams and to deport international students who publicly support Palestinian causes. Trump could attempt to pull federal funding from schools that offer race-focused curricula, potentially using the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights to investigate and sanction these institutions.
His first administration employed similar tactics, with Education Secretary Betsy DeVos enforcing policies that barred transgender women from participating in women’s sports based on an interpretation of Title IX. Trump also intends to overhaul Title IX and reinstate the 2020 rule on sexual misconduct in schools, which the Biden administration rescinded. His revived 1776 Commission would promote civics education focused on “patriotic” interpretations of history, marking a sharp pivot from curricula that include racial and gender-focused content.
Climate Policy
As soon as he assumes office in January, Trump is expected to initiate a regulatory freeze and begin reversing Biden’s climate initiatives. Instead of promoting renewable energy, Trump vowed to protect coal-fired power plants and boost oil and gas production. Given the existing legal framework and regulatory precedents, repealing Biden’s climate policies could be challenging and time-consuming. Trump’s legal team might also consider previous court rulings on environmental policies, including the vacated 2021 power plant rule. Although Congress mandates methane regulations for the oil and gas sectors, Trump’s EPA could implement industry-friendly adjustments, signaling a substantial shift in America’s environmental priorities.
Housing
Trump’s housing policy aims to ease regulations to help developers increase housing supply and reduce costs. The Republican National Committee endorses the idea of selling federal lands for housing construction, an initiative that some Republicans have promoted in Congress. In his first term, Trump worked to recapitalize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government-controlled entities backing a significant share of US residential mortgages. While the pandemic derailed his plans, a second term might revive his efforts to privatize these institutions, depending on his selections for critical roles within the Treasury Department and the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Taxes
Trump campaigned without offering a comprehensive tax plan, but he will soon face significant fiscal questions, mainly as his first-term tax cuts expire in 2025. Trump has pledged to make those cuts permanent and proposes additional deductions, such as eliminating taxes on tips and allowing auto loan interest deductions. Congress must assess these proposals in light of the nation’s $2 trillion deficit, a process that sharp divisions over government spending priorities could complicate. Trump suggests that tariffs could finance income tax cuts, though steep tariffs might face opposition even within Congress. Republicans might also seek to eliminate green energy tax breaks, though some lawmakers now support these incentives. Short-term extensions on tax cuts could also be a tactic Republicans use to reduce the long-term costs of Trump’s proposed tax policies.
Foreign Policy: Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Hamas, and Iran
Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Trump has repeatedly expressed the need to end the war in Ukraine quickly, although his strategy remains unclear. He has previously criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, partly shifting responsibility for the conflict to Ukraine. Trump has also proposed withdrawing US financial support for Ukraine, a stance that departs from decades of bipartisan foreign policy. While he advocates for peace talks, his approach to achieving a sustainable resolution is ambiguous. Nevertheless, US corporations could see reconstruction opportunities in war-torn regions, where they may gain contracts to rebuild infrastructure under Trump’s “America First” policy.
Israel-Hamas Conflict and Middle East Policy Toward Iran
In the Middle East, Trump’s policy differs markedly from the Biden administration’s approach. While Biden has promoted Israeli military restraint in Gaza and endorsed a two-state solution, Trump has traditionally supported Israel’s security objectives unconditionally. He has urged Israel to adopt a more assertive stance while proposing international investment in Palestinian territories as a means of economic stabilization. Trump’s administration could also revive his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, imposing economic sanctions and supporting Israeli military actions against Iran-backed factions. Reconstruction opportunities may also open in Gaza and Lebanon if a resolution occurs, allowing US companies to contribute to rebuilding efforts while reinforcing American presence in the region.
NATO Dues and Potential US Withdrawal
Trump has criticized NATO allies for not contributing sufficiently to their defense budgets, and he may push for a stricter commitment from members to meet their financial obligations. If European nations fail to meet his expectations, Trump has hinted at a US withdrawal from NATO. Such a move would shift the US from multilateral defense commitments to a unipolar power structure focused on dealing directly with global powers like Russia and China. This would signify a drastic shift in international security arrangements, especially in Europe, where NATO has long been a stabilizing force.
Relevance of the United Nations Under the New US Administration
Under Trump’s administration, the United Nations will likely face significant shifts in engagement and funding from the United States. Trump has historically criticized the organization for inefficiency and lack of accountability. His administration is expected to adopt a more transactional approach to the UN, focusing on how its activities align with US interests and “America First” principles. This could mean reduced financial contributions, especially to peacekeeping missions and programs that Trump deems misaligned with US objectives. Trump’s stance may also reduce the UN’s influence in mediating international conflicts, as he favors bilateral agreements over multilateral frameworks. His approach to the UN will likely prioritize US sovereignty and limit the organization’s role in global governance, signaling a diminished reliance on it for resolving issues such as climate change, humanitarian aid, and human rights. With this shift, the UN may find its influence waning and operational capacity strained as the US plays a more selective role in supporting its initiatives.
Presidential Pardon: Shielding Himself from Legal Consequences
A unique aspect of Trump’s return to office is the speculation surrounding a self-pardon to shield himself from pending legal issues. Legal scholars debate the viability of a presidential self-pardon with arguments on both sides regarding its constitutionality. Another possibility is for Trump to broker a deal involving his resignation, potentially allowing his vice president, J.D. Vance, to pardon him. While controversial, this path would theoretically absolve him from future legal battles, freeing his administration from potential distractions.
Influence of Peter Thiel and Elon Musk on Trump’s Policy Agenda
Peter Thiel
Billionaire tech mogul Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and a significant Trump supporter, has long held libertarian and anti-establishment views. Thiel’s relationship with Trump is influential, with the businessman advocating for a break from traditional government and economic models. Thiel’s investments in Trump-aligned figures like J.D. Vance, who will serve as Vice President, and his interest in economic disruption align closely with Trump’s “creative destruction” philosophy. Thiel, a polarizing figure, has been instrumental in promoting an agenda that combines free-market principles with a sharp critique of the current political establishment.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, and other ventures, has also emerged as a key Trump supporter, backing policies that resonate with Trump’s and Musk’s views on economic disruption and deregulation. Musk’s influence may see increased government support for private sector-driven innovation, including space exploration and green technology manufacturing. He has hinted at cost-cutting measures in federal spending, pledging to find $2 trillion in potential cuts. Musk’s views on a less-regulated, innovation-driven economy align with Trump’s anti-bureaucratic stance and his interest in minimizing federal oversight.
Musk’s influence could impact US trade policies and relations globally, mainly with nations like India. Musk’s manufacturing ambitions for Tesla and his interest in expanding in the Indian market suggest that U.S.-India trade relations may emphasize tech and electric vehicle manufacturing. Musk’s high-profile discussions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi underscore the alignment of Indian and American goals in renewable energy and tech-driven economic growth, potentially fostering closer collaboration under Trump. Musk’s reach across industries also positions him as a critical figure for global supply chains, especially in technology, where the US may push for onshore or “ally-shore” manufacturing in regions including India to counter China’s dominance in these sectors.
India-U.S. Trade Relations Under Trump
Trump’s return to power could reshape US-India trade dynamics, especially regarding tariffs and visa policies. Trade experts warn that Trump’s “America First” agenda may introduce high customs duties on Indian exports such as automobiles, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, potentially making these goods less competitive in the US market. In the IT sector, which derives over 80% of its export earnings from the US, tighter H-1B visa rules could impact costs and growth, a significant concern given the sector’s reliance on skilled professionals.
The US is India’s largest trading partner, accounting for over $190 billion annually, with goods trade alone at $120 billion in 2023–24. Between FY’2020 and FY’2024, India’s merchandise exports to the US rose by 46%, from $53.1 billion to $77.5 billion. Imports from the US also grew from $35.8 billion in 2019–20 to $42.2 billion last fiscal year. Trade in services expanded by over 30%, reaching $70.5 billion in 2024. The US is India’s third-largest investor, contributing $66.7 billion between April 2000 and June 2024.
Trump’s previous critical remarks about India as a “large tariff abuser” and “tariff king” suggest that there will be stricter trade negotiations ahead. Experts like Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) predict reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, particularly in textiles, chemicals, pharma, and engineering products. Yet, a tougher US stance on China could present new market opportunities for India as an alternative supplier of electronics and pharmaceuticals.
Further complicating the landscape, Trump’s protectionist approach could see higher tariffs aimed at onshoring manufacturing and restructuring supply chains. As a result, India may need to explore alternative markets, consider reciprocal tariffs on US exports, or negotiate a trade deal that aligns with US interests while safeguarding its own. India’s rising demand for US technology, energy, and capital goods offers avenues to expand bilateral trade, but challenges remain.
Beyond goods and services, US tech and e-commerce firms, including Google, Facebook, and Amazon, earn significant revenue from India through advertising and retail, underscoring the depth of economic ties. However, Trump’s expected focus on geopolitical alignment may push India to align more closely with US aims, potentially expanding its role as an alternative supplier and impacting its foreign policy autonomy.
Conclusion
The re-election of Donald Trump has the potential to upend US political, economic, and social structures. With a bold agenda that challenges conventional governance, Trump intends to revitalize his vision of “America First.” His policies, spanning immigration, trade, healthcare, climate, and education, aim to recalibrate American priorities by promoting a nationalist, anti-establishment ethos. However, his approach risks political polarization and potential legal challenges. With influential figures like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk supporting his vision, Trump’s administration may also witness a more innovation-driven, deregulated economic model, with significant implications for global trade and the tech industry. The limitations of the presidency and the resilience of the political establishment will test Trump’s commitment to his agenda. Whether he succeeds or fails, Trump’s influence is already reshaping American politics and leaving a legacy of radical transformation.