Egypt intends to replace some of its fleet of American F-16 multirole aircraft with Chinese J-10C fighters. There has been no official announcement of the J-10C sale to Egypt, but it is believed that on August 19, the Egyptian Ministry of Defense covertly ordered the first batch of Chinese fighters.
Egypt has a large and diverse fleet of tactical multirole aircraft. French Rafale multirole fighters serve as the backbone of its air force and are among its most modern fighter planes. Cairo has ordered 55 aircraft over the years and inducted 24. Delivery of the final batch of 31 Rafale R3Rs will begin in 2026. There are also speculations of a possible procurement of more Rafales in the current F4 variant, although Dassault Aviation’s limited production capacity poses a challenge.
Egypt officially continues to operate 17 French Mirage 2000 jets, though their technical condition, like that of much of the Egyptian Air Force, is unknown.
Egypt’s largest fighter aircraft flfleet comprises of about 200 American F-16 fighter jets. For years, Egypt has been negotiating with the United States to update its F-16s to the F-16V standard or purchase the most recent F-16 Block 70/72 planes. The status of these negotiations is uncertain; if the acquisition of Chinese J-10Cs is verified, it indicates that the talks are not moving as Egypt had planned.
Egypt ordered 50 Russian MiG-29M/M2 multirole fighters in 2015, almost simultaneously with the first Rafale deal. The motivation was the United States’s long-standing embargo on supplying Egypt with powerful twin-engine multirole fighter aircraft. The roadblock originates from the United States’ Qualitative Military Edge (QME) doctrine, which ensures Israel’s military dominance over regional rivals. This approach is part of US-Israeli ties, which means the US can sell advanced weaponry to adjacent nations while ensuring Israel’s military dominance. As a result, Washington declined to supply Egypt with the fifth-generation F-35A Lightning II combat jets.
In 2018, Washington also prohibited the sale of French SCALP cruise missiles for Egypt’s Rafales. The missile incorporates American technology, and Washington has refused to provide export certification. The ITAR (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) rule, which prohibited the use of SCALP missiles, remained an issue until February 2021, when a solution was reached, allowing Egypt to incorporate SCALPs into its arsenal. Speculation indicates that the SCALPs may not be effective against Israeli territory.
The primary goal of ITAR regulations is to ensure that the export of American military technology, equipment, and related information is consistent with US national security and international interests.
Similar “problems” come from Egypt’s interest in European Meteor air-to-air missiles, which outperform Israeli AMRAAMs (Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles) and Derby missiles. According to the Times Aerospace portal, which covers the Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian aerospace industries, the United States is preventing Egypt from purchasing Meteors.
Egypt’s F-16s also have considerable restrictions, as they lack AMRAAMs and only carry older AIM-7 Sparrow missiles. Similarly, Egypt’s Rafales can only carry Mica air-to-air missiles with a “modest” range of 80 kilometers, which is shorter than the Israeli AMRAAMs and Derby missiles.
Thus, Egypt’s purchase of Russian MiG-29s and R-77 air-to-air missiles, which have a range of around 110 kilometers, is understandable. Furthermore, in 2018, Egypt bought 24 Su-35S multirole fighters. Egypt acquired the MiGs in 2017, but the Su-35S jets have yet to be delivered after the United States threatened Egypt with CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions.
The Egyptian Air Force maintains 11 tactical wings, which include the following number of squadrons – 13 F-16, two MiG-29M, two Rafales, two light Alpha Jet squadrons (for close air support), and one Mirage 2000. The Alpha Jets, Mirage 2000s, and the oldest F-16s will shortly be replaced, while the MiG-29M/M2s are becoming increasingly difficult to maintain as a result of US sanctions.
Furthermore, MiG-29s deployed with the 104th Tactical Fighter Wing are unable to interface with Western combat aircraft, rendering the wing a minor air force within the Egyptian Air Force.
In the near future, Egypt’s air force will require 100 to 150 new tactical combat aircraft.
Several modernization initiatives for the Egyptian Air Force are being considered. These include the acquisition of 12 older Mirage 2000s from Qatar and older Mirage 2000s from the UAE.
Egypt is also looking to purchase powerful twin-engine multirole US F-15EX Eagle II fighters and/or Eurofighter Typhoons for which it is negotiating with the Italian government. According to reports, the United States has already approved the transfer of the F-15EX Eagle II to Egypt, however, Congress has yet to get consent from the DSCA (Defense Security Cooperation Agency). The present state of these discussions is unclear due to Egypt’s Ministry of Defense’s usual reticence to speak on military procurement.
According to a Times Aerospace piece from May, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi wants to prevent the United States from reducing Egypt’s military capabilities in order to retain Israel’s qualitative military superiority. He tries to avoid over-reliance on the United States as a solitary provider, which is a frequently practiced Arab approach based on historical experience—never rely on a single power, as major powers’ attitudes can change. Egypt is not alone in taking this method; Qatar (Typhoon, Rafale, F-15), Saudi Arabia (Typhoon, F-15), and the UAE (F-16, Rafale) also do so.
Egypt’s shift to China is understandable—due to pressure from Israel, the US is unwilling to give Egypt the most advanced multirole fighters and also restricts European delivery of top-tier ammunition (subject to ITAR). Russia is hampered by its invasion of Ukraine, as well as Western sanctions, and its industry is obsessed with building weapons for its own military.
As previously stated, there is no formal confirmation of Egypt’s purchase of J-10Cs. However, the acquisition is thought to have transpired following Egypt’s official membership in the China-led BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) on January 1 of this year.
The Pakistani Air Force became the first foreign user of the J-10C, the next generation of Chinese multirole fighters, in March 2022. In January of this year, Pakistan sent J-10Cs to Qatar for joint training with Qatari Eurofighters. According to the Pakistani Air Force, the J-10s engaged in air-to-air combat with Eurofighter aircraft.
The J-10C is a fourth-generation multirole aircraft featuring an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. The primary armament of Pakistani and Egyptian J-10Cs is the export variant of the PL-15 air-to-air missile, which has a reported range of 145 kilometers. Given that Western countries are unwilling or unable to provide Egypt with high-performance air-to-air missiles, the contemporary J-10C with PL-15 represents an appealing option for Cairo. From a tactical and technical basis, only Israel’s F-35A outperforms Egypt’s J-10Cs.
However, due to the distinctiveness of Chinese aviation systems, including training and maintenance, the Chinese J-10C fleet will operate as a small, freestanding air force within the Egyptian Air Force, as did the Russian MiG-29s.
On the other hand, the purchase of Chinese J-10Cs may encourage Western countries to be more proactive in providing sophisticated multirole fighters and weapons to Egypt.