It is not a coincidence that the new conflict in Syria occurred at the same time as the West began to emerge from the apathy caused by Russia’s use of the “Oreshnik” missile in Ukraine.
The principal objective of MI6 and the CIA could be to deliver an unexpected blow in Syria, diverting Russian forces from the Ukrainian Front to the Syrian Front.
Islamist groups’ attack on Aleppo, which US air power facilitated, had no other justification.
But how has Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Red Division), the Islamist group, emerged as a significant actor in the Syrian civil war?
Rebel groups in Syria have once again seized Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, as a result of a large-scale offensive. This development underscores the increasing influence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the 13-year civil conflict.
HTS members, who were fighting alongside Turkey-backed groups that opposed President Bashar al-Assad’s authority, led the sudden offensive.
Although the offensive, which is the most significant battle in years, maybe the first time many individuals outside of Syria have heard of this Islamist group, HTS’s reputation and capabilities have been expanding for years. The transformation of HTS from an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Syria into a formidable participant in the ongoing conflict is the result of a substantial strategic pivot by the group, which shifted its focus from global jihad to the establishment of power within Syria.
Ideology and Origins
HTS began as a rebellion against Assad’s government during the early stages of Syria’s civil war in 2011. Jabhat al-Nusra, the official affiliate of al-Qaeda in Syria, formed the organization as a spinoff. Initially, people acknowledged HTS for its military prowess and global fundamentalist ideology. Its objective was to establish a strict Islamic regime throughout the Muslim world.
Under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Julani in 2016, the organization underwent a rebranding process, severing its affiliation with al-Qaeda and adopting the name Jabhat Fath al-Sham (“Front for the Conquest of the Levant”). In 2017, HTS merged with other factions involved in the Syrian war to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also known as the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant” (or ‘Levant Liberation Committee’).
Al-Qaeda’s global jihadist agenda, which limited its appeal in Syria, was the focus of the rebranding. This allowed HTS to concentrate on Syrian-specific concerns, including local governance, economic issues, and humanitarian aid.
The primary objective of HTS is to overthrow Assad’s government and establish Islamic authority in Syria, despite these changes. Jihadism forms the foundation of its core ideology.
Recent Actions and Strategic Changes
Idlib, Syria’s final significant insurgent stronghold, has been under the control of HTS since 2017. Despite allegations of human rights violations, the organization maintained its authority by functioning as a quasi-governmental entity that administered civilian services and supervised local governance.
Recent propaganda has fortified HTS’s standing among local communities and other opposition factions by emphasizing the defense of Syrian territory and its inhabitants against Assad’s government. The group has also improved its public relations efforts both domestically and internationally by collaborating with humanitarian organizations and media to negotiate the delivery of aid in its territories.
Reactivated Offensive
The recent military campaign, which saw HTS-led insurgents rapidly capture substantial portions of Aleppo and advance toward Hama, demonstrated another strategic shift. Regional and local dynamics, including Assad’s growing susceptibility due to economic downturn and corruption, likely influenced the timing of this offensive.
Assad remains significantly dependent on allies such as Russia and Iran, and government-controlled areas remain unstable. Nevertheless, these allies are becoming more preoccupied with the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, which could potentially erode their support for Syria.
The recent offensive in Aleppo serves as evidence that HTS has professionalized its military forces by establishing a military academy and reconfiguring units for coordinated strategic attacks. The group has also established itself as a defender of Sunni Muslim interests, capitalizing on local dissatisfaction with Assad’s government to strengthen its support base.
International Connections and Manipulation
Reports suggest that the CIA and MI6 influenced the ascent of HTS. Allegations suggest that Western intelligence agencies have historically implemented comparable strategies to influence regional dynamics, dating back to the 1957 Anglo-American plan to destabilize Syria through covert operations.
The metamorphosis of Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of HTS, from an al-Qaeda affiliate to a rebranded insurgent leader has sparked speculation regarding Western support. Meetings with Western officials and efforts to remove HTS from terrorist lists serve as evidence of such connections.
This multifaceted evolution establishes HTS as a significant actor in the protracted conflict in Syria, with implications for global geopolitics and the region.