The subcontinent is at a critical juncture. OP SINDOOR has shattered the idea of a frozen conflict and pushed both India and Pakistan into a tense, armed standoff, with neither side willing to back down. India’s precise strikes deep into Pakistan-occupied territory and its hinterland signal a shift in strategy: from restraint to carefully calculated risk-taking. Pakistan accused it of violating sovereignty, while India said it was a message. The message is clear—terrorism will face consequences. This strategic change showcases India’s patience and resilience amid a complex regional threat landscape.
However, what follows is less clear. With active formations in place and no indication of a withdrawal, South Asia has entered a phase of controlled hostility, characterised by an increase in Chinese influence in Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. The Chinese interest in Bangladesh and Pakistan is known. Pakistan is comfortable with this—it keeps India confined, preoccupied with internal issues and international caution. India now faces the decision whether to continue playing the same game or to change the rules entirely.
A Tethered Elephant in a Predatory World
India, in its stated aim, has declared that it does not seek territorial gains and aims for a peaceful neighbourhood. However, the neighbourhood has learned to exploit this resolve. Maintaining a “No War, No Peace” environment slowly drains India, forcing it into a constant state of vigilance, counter-terrorism operations, and domestic tension. It is a low-cost, high-disruption strategy: a few armed men can immobilise battalions, incite media storms, and keep India’s global reputation on the defensive. The human capital cost for Pakistan is minimal — in a poor country, fighters are easily replaceable. This situation highlights the urgent need for India to prioritise internal strengthening for its long-term security.
Meanwhile, India’s soft power—its democracy, diaspora, and development model—is no longer sufficient to maintain influence. Global attention spans are brief. While India emphasises cross-border terror to its allies, Pakistan portrays its internal insurgencies as Indian-supported. The world observes chaos and holds both sides responsible. Pakistan, through clever diplomacy and plausible deniability, has obscured the moral distinctions.
India faces a harsh reality: in today’s world, hard power prevails. There are three main power centers—the U.S., Russia, and China. Everyone else is navigating around them. Pakistan, lacking genuine allies, manages to manipulate all three through strategic ambiguity. It seeks China for weapons and funding, Russia for optics, and the U.S. for sympathy. Morality does not constrain it; the Army remains unaccountable and operates the country in secrecy. In this context, India must refine its messaging and forge regional alliances to counter Pakistan’s strategic ambiguity.
India must stop expecting global justice or alignment. It must accept that the game is rigged and charter a path for itself, not by shouting louder, but by acting smarter.
The world knows India is burdened with challenges: internal divisions, bureaucratic inertia, and social volatility. That knowledge is being weaponised. India is seen as the elephant tied by a rope to a post, strong, but not moving—a behemoth caged by its hesitation.
Furthermore, the perception is justified. India remains indecisive. The geopolitical situation is not in its favour. It cannot afford to play high-stakes hands at a table where China leads and Pakistan takes risks. India must stay low — but not remain idle. It needs to quietly build capabilities, enhance self-reliance, and prepare for the long term.
However, even this demands attention to urgent issues:
- Talent is fleeing. India’s brightest—engineers, doctors, and tech leaders—seek better opportunities abroad. A generation of skilled minds is slipping away.
- Notwithstanding the above, the Regional Engineering Colleges have produced engineers who have performed exceptionally well.
- The IITs and IISC continue to conduct much-needed research; however, funding is limited, and India has yet to develop a culture of serious innovation, as is witnessed in the backyards and garages of Israel. An organisation akin to DARPA is needed. The DRDO remains lethargic and behind the curve in meeting India’s defence needs.
- The rest are distracted. Much of the domestic population is fed on the opium of religious polarisation or survives on government subsidies, neither of which builds a resilient, aware citizenry.
- Civil defence is neglected. Emergency preparedness, civic discipline, and wartime logistics remain dangerously underdeveloped.
If India is to survive and thrive in this new normal, it must stop managing decline and start planning ascent. This ascent must be planned with precision and purpose, not loudly or recklessly.
Weaponising Instability: The Adversary’s Low-Investment Strategy
Pakistan’s strategy is cost-effective and dangerous. By keeping the LoC tense and funding asymmetric threats, it imposes a disproportionate burden on India, both economically and psychologically. Terrorism does not aim to win wars but to wear down the opponent. Pakistan understands the situation better than anyone.
India, by contrast, spends billions maintaining readiness while struggling to isolate the source diplomatically. The 2021 ceasefire was a strategic breather, but it did not change the fundamental calculus: as long as Pakistan sees gains in keeping India engaged, the provocations will continue.
The Narrative Battle: Losing the Moral High Ground
India previously maintained its moral superiority on international forums by highlighting Pakistan’s terror networks. However, over time, that advantage has dulled. The reasons are clear: –
- Pakistan’s insurgency narrative—projecting internal unrest as Indian-fueled sabotage—has blurred lines for international audiences.
- India’s slow and bureaucratic messaging has allowed Pakistan to sow doubt.
- Global fatigue with the India-Pakistan issue has shifted the focus to larger theaters—China, Ukraine, and the Indo-Pacific.
India’s message must evolve—faster, sharper, and backed with evidence and allies. It must treat the information domain as a critical battlefield, where effective communication can be a game-changer.
Options for a Peaceful Neighbourhood
Despite provocations, India’s strategic objective remains unchanged: achieving peace through strength. However, the path must be adapted to the ever-changing and complex geopolitical realities of today.
Reinforce the Ceasefire
Utilise technology — including drones and ISR assets—to ensure transparency. Regular flag meetings, hotline usage, and local-level deconfliction must be systematised.
Use Precision to Deter, Not Escalate
OP SINDOOR shows the value of controlled kinetic action. Small, accurate, and political in messaging—this must remain the doctrine. This, too, must evolve as the ground situation changes.
Revive Strategic Signalling
Post high commissioners, open communication backchannels. Quiet, not public, diplomacy can create space for stability.
Lead a Regional Security Framework
India must build a South Asia-led counter-terror grouping—with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal—to dilute Pakistan’s influence and raise joint stakes.
Fix Internal Weaknesses
Civil defence, public resilience, logistical networks—all must be built up. India cannot rely solely on its armed forces while society remains underprepared.
Realism, Resilience, and Resolve
India is at a moment of strategic inflexion. The old rules do not apply. OP SINDOOR is not just an operation—it is a marker. The region has entered a new normal: one of high alert, low trust, and constant contestation.
India must stop waiting for moral victories. It must move with patience, but without paralysis, with strength, but without swagger.
The elephant is no longer tied. However, it must now decide whether to stand still or take a step forward.
Quietly. Powerfully. Unapologetically.