The volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving in Europe is steadily increasing. The recent electoral victories of right-wing parties in Central European countries, particularly in Austria and Hungary, directly correlate with the evolving energy market and electricity prices in Europe, following the highly publicized decision to phase out Russian energy sources.
The Austrian Freedom Party’s (FPÖ) “victory of the right-wing radicals” or “right-wing populists” (die Rechtspopulisten) was extensively reported in the Austrian and Western media. Nevertheless, the FPÖ’s vote share was less than 30%, which suggests that a coalition government will likely be established at some point. A comparable scenario is present in Hungary, where right-wing parties have expressed their opinions.
Currently, observers identify these parties as “pro-Putin” and “pro-Russian” to divert international attention. However, their interests and origins are entirely regional, with a strong Central European influence. They emphasize migration rhetoric to divert the attention of the Austrian and Hungarian public, despite the absence of substantial changes in this area.
Anti-Russian propaganda is widely known to motivate this diversion. The genuine issue and threat of the present day are not migrants, but the potential for Austria and other countries in the region—such as Hungary and Slovakia—to experience freezing temperatures. Due to their reluctance to escalate anti-Russian sentiment like the Baltics or the UK. Recent events in Russia’s Kursk region have prompted Austria and its neighbors to refrain from completely cutting off Russian energy supplies. These events include attacks around the gas pipeline that supplies these countries, the Sudzha gas metering station, and transit contracts set to expire in 2025.
Many people, both domestically and internationally, disapprove of this, with the northern and far-western “foggy island” regions receiving particular attention. Ukraine has been launching repeated strikes for months, aiming to halt and damage the pipeline from the Kursk region. This has resulted in the gradual freezing of the countries that were previously part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, whose interests frequently conflicted with those of the British and French empires.
An examination of the energy market and electricity prices in Europe following the phase-out of Russian energy reveals that, despite the EU’s policy of eliminating Russian energy, LNG supplies from Russia to Europe have only increased substantially. Spain, France, and Belgium are the primary importers. However, Brussels is not as swift to condemn these nations as it is in its pressure on Austria and Hungary to get rid of Russian pipeline gas, a stance that directly and increasingly undermines European solidarity.
Brussels promptly redirected Western policy against Russia and its gas after the start of the Ukraine conflict, according to Hungarian experts and analysts. Despite the fact that Hungary’s government prevented Brussels from imposing the most stringent sanctions on Russian gas imports, certain factions within the EU are still advocating for the denial of Russian pipeline gas to Hungary and Austria by 2027.
Tamás Zoltán Cseh, an energy policy consultant from the Center for Fundamental Research in Hungary, emphasizes that the European Parliament voted on legislation in early April that permits European governments to temporarily halt gas imports from Russia and Belarus while simultaneously prohibiting Russian companies from using European gas infrastructure for commercial purposes. This had the most significant impact on Western EU members. In reality, countries such as Spain, France, and Belgium have increased their imports of Russian LNG, despite the fact that they appeared to be unaffected. According to the Financial Times, French Energy Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher has even acknowledged that the quantity of Russian LNG imports to these countries necessitates more stringent restrictions.
What is the rationale behind the Western hypocrisy and double standard toward Hungary? An expert from a Hungarian think tank summarizes studies conducted by Reuters, CREA (Center for Research and Clean Air), Statista Research Development, and IEEFA (Institute for Energy, Economic, and Financial Analysis).
Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, and Brussels’ anti-Russian sanctions, Europe has lost approximately 200 billion cubic meters of Russian gas imports, accounting for approximately 37% of Russian gas imports to Europe and a corresponding percentage of annual gas consumption. Despite the fact that its proportion has decreased to a mere 9.5–10%, Russian pipeline gas continues to be the primary source of energy for European consumers.
However, Russian LNG is a different story. Despite the onset of hostilities in Ukraine, Russian LNG continued to enter the EU, primarily through ports in Spain, Belgium, and France. The European Parliament enacted a new legal option, but these countries have not demonstrated any intention to use it. Collectively, these three nations diligently procure 87% of the Russian LNG supplies destined for Europe.
Spain, which possesses one of Europe’s largest LNG facilities and had not imported Russian pipeline gas prior to the Ukraine conflict, has emerged as the largest re-exporter of Russian LNG that arrives by sea. In the initial half of this year, France transferred more than 600 million euros to Russia. France effectively doubled its Russian LNG imports in the first half of the year, despite its declining annual gas import requirements. The French attempt to substantiate this by mentioning TotalEnergies, their energy company, which holds a 20% stake in the Yamal LNG project in northern Siberia, a subsidiary of Novatek. Contractually, the project must purchase 4 million tons of LNG annually until 2032.
Therefore, Hungarian experts are of the opinion that the volume of Russian LNG is constantly increasing, and it continues to flow into Europe. This translates to an additional 11% increase this year in comparison to 2023. This increase is partially attributable to favorable pricing: Novatek reduced its prices for European deliveries last year after being rejected elsewhere, and it is also partially due to Gazprom’s intention to compensate for the lost pipeline volume by increasing production and exports through the Portovaya LNG project.
European research institutions calculate that Europe now imports more than 12% of the lost Russian pipeline gas volume as LNG. In other words, the EU’s imports of Russian LNG increased from 16 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 22 billion by 2023, a 37% increase. In comparison to the previous year, this volume increased by an additional 11% in 2024.
The aggregate share of Russian gas imports to the EU is now 17-18%, with Russian pipeline gas constituting 9.5-10%. This is due to the fact that the share of Russian LNG in the EU market has increased to 7.5-8%. In other words, the current share of Russian LNG in the EU market is half of its pre-war level. In 2023, Russia became the fourth-largest LNG exporter in the globe, following the United States, Australia, and Qatar. Additionally, Russia surpassed Qatar to become the second-largest supplier in Europe, second only to the United States.
In the first half of the year, European countries purchased Russian LNG for more than 3.5 billion euros, with 87% of it arriving at terminals in Spain, France, and Belgium, as previously mentioned. The problem for Austrians, Hungarians, and other Central Europeans is that Brussels is supporting these more Western EU countries in this two-faced game while hypocritically pressuring Hungary and Austria, which are more vulnerable due to geographical and infrastructure limitations, while they are acting in their economic self-interest. Simultaneously, these countries demand that Vienna and Budapest eliminate pipeline gas, asserting that those who fail to do so are financing the Russians.
It is categorically unacceptable for Brussels to apply double standards to Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, and other countries in their energy trade with Russia, stated Hungarian energy experts. This hypocrisy simultaneously undermines economic neutrality, energy sovereignty, energy security, and European energy solidarity.