“You run and you run to catch up with the sun, but it’s sinking,
Racing around to come up behind you again.
The sun is relatively the same, but you’re older.
Shorter of breath and one day closer to death.”
— Pink Floyd, “Time”
India’s emergence as a regional and global power must be underpinned by military strength and a robust and comprehensive civil defense architecture. While our Armed Forces are trained, equipped, and combat-tested, the state of civil preparedness for nuclear, conventional, or hybrid warfare is worryingly inadequate.
In a future war, our nation’s survival will depend on our military and our citizens’ ability to endure, adapt, and respond. The battlefield will extend beyond our armed forces to include city streets, metro corridors, hospitals, bridges, data centers, and power grids.
This paper examines India’s civil defense readiness and offers an expanded roadmap for policymakers, citizens, and institutions to understand the stakes and act urgently.
Civil Defense. Dormant Since 1971
The 1971 war saw active public participation in blackouts, air raid drills, and community-based preparedness. Today, most Indian cities lack even rudimentary awareness of how to respond to missile threats, let alone a nuclear attack. Despite repeated advisories by NDMA and the armed forces, civil defense has fallen through the cracks of bureaucracy.
Blackouts and Digital Containment
Blackouts may no longer obscure targets from satellites, but they remain essential for low-altitude UAV confusion and public psychological preparedness. More importantly, India must prepare for cyber-blackouts by preemptively isolating digital control systems (power grids, telecom, water controllers) to avoid cascading failure from cyber or electromagnetic attacks.
Evacuation Planning. A Missing Civic Layer
India lacks evacuation plans for its cities. Citizens do not know where to go or how to reach safety. There are no zoned “safe districts” or pre-designated shelter corridors. A national plan must identify and publish these zones, integrate civilian participation, and ensure local authorities can execute evacuations without delay.
NBC Protection for Civilians
The public lacks protection against nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) threats. India must.
Stock iodine tablets and distribute them in high-risk zones.
Run public awareness campaigns on shelter-in-place, sealing homes, and decontamination.
Provide emergency kits in schools, malls, stations, and public buildings.
Urban Sheltering. Unlocking Existing Infrastructure
India must repurpose what it already has.
Basements of buildings should be reinforced and equipped with toilets, water tanks, generators, and air filtration.
Hospital basements should serve as auxiliary ICUs and trauma centers with medical stockpiles and backup oxygen.
Metro tunnels must be designated as emergency shelters, equipped with rations, lighting, and signage.
Medical Evacuation and Surge Capacity
The scale of casualties from a WMD or coordinated strike could overwhelm our healthcare system. India must.
Identify trauma clusters in every city.
Stockpile drugs, oxygen, surgical tools, and PPE.
Use helicopters and dedicated trains for casualty evacuation.
Restoration of Critical Infrastructure
Power, water, sewage, and gas will be the first casualties. India must.
Build decentralized solar-powered microgrids.
Establish underground water storage.
Use portable waste management systems, such as composting toilets, for emergency sanitation.
Transport Infrastructure and Critical Points
Bridges, tunnels, and highways are critical vulnerabilities. India must.
Identify each district’s VAS (vulnerable areas) and VPS (vulnerable points).
Maintain rapid repair teams with prefab bridge kits and mobile construction platforms.
Secure chokepoints with CAPF deployments.
Food Distribution and Logistics
The PDS system is fragile under wartime stress. Civil defense planning must.
Decentralize food stocks to the district level.
Activate mobile kitchens and ration convoys.
Introduce Aadhaar-linked food relief systems for displaced populations.
Rogue State Threats and Unconventional Targets
A hostile adversary may not restrict itself to military targets.
Nuclear plants, dams, and metro systems may be attacked to incite panic.
Cyber and EMP attacks could paralyze banking, ATMs, and air traffic.
Biological agents could devastate urban populations.
India must defend and ensure rapid reboot capability.
Mock Drills Must Mirror Real Scenarios
Token drills won’t suffice. India must.
Conduct realistic multi-agency simulations.
Include citizens, RWAS, schools, and hospitals.
Evaluate performance and update SOPs regularly.
Early Warning Systems and Communication Continuity
India must-
Install and regularly test sirens in all high-risk zones.
Implement SMS-based cell broadcast alert systems.
Establish a National War Information Centre under the NDMA, which is linked to the:
Doordarshan and All India Radio (AIR),
Community radio,
Local cable networks,
WhatsApp Broadcast and IVRS.
Internal Security. Vigilance Against Saboteurs and OGWs
During chaos, enemies within may strike. India must guard against.
Sleeper cells are planted to disrupt logistics and infrastructure.
Overground Workers (OGWs) who spread disinformation and sabotage local efforts.
Saboteurs who may poison water supplies, set fire to shelters, or hinder evacuation.
Security forces and intelligence agencies must coordinate preemptive arrests and curfews in known high-risk zones.
Mobilising National Human Capital
India’s greatest strength is its people. Civil defense must.
Register trained volunteers across professions.
Mobilize NCC, NSS, veterans, scouts, religious groups, and NGOs.
Create a National Civil Resilience Corps at the state and district levels.
Medical Resource Planning: A Predictive Matrix for Urban Centers. An AI module has been used to provide a real-time perspective.
In the event of a nuclear strike, major Indian metropolitan cities would face catastrophic casualty loads. Based on projected impacts, the following cities represent the scale of potential damage and the corresponding medical infrastructure that would be required for immediate response and survival.
Delhi
Population. 32 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties. 9.6 million
ICU Bed Requirement. 1.92 million
Ward Bed Requirement. 4.8 million
Ventilators Needed. 1.44 million
Medical Personnel. 480,000 ICU doctors, 1.92 million ICU nurses, 480,000 ward doctors, and 1.58 million ward nurses.
Mumbai
Population: 21 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties. 6.3 million
ICU Bed Requirement. 1.26 million
Ward Bed Requirement: 3.15 million
Ventilators Needed: 945,000
Medical Personnel: 315,000
ICU doctors, 1.26 million ICU nurses, 315,000 ward doctors, and 1.04 million ward nurses.
Hyderabad
Population. 10.5 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties. 3.15 million
ICU Bed Requirement: 630,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 1.575 million
Ventilators Needed: 472,500
Medical Personnel. 157,500 ICU doctors, 630,000 ICU nurses, 157,500
Bengaluru
Population: 14 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties. 4.2 million
ICU Bed Requirement: 840,000
Ward Bed Requirement. 2.1 million
Ventilators Needed: 630,000
Medical Personnel. 210,000 ICU doctors, 840,000 ICU nurses;
Ahmedabad
Population. 8.8 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties. 2.64 million
ICU Bed Requirement: 528,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 1.32 million
Ventilators Needed: 396,000
Medical Personnel: 132,000
ICU doctors, 528,000 ICU nurses, 132,000
Surat
Population. 7.2 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties. 2.16 million
ICU Bed Requirement: 432,000
Ward Bed Requirement. 1.08 million
Ventilators Needed: 324,000
Medical Personnel: 108,000
Faridabad
Population. 1.4 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties: 420,000
ICU Bed Requirement: 84,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 210,000
Ventilators Needed: 63,000
Medical Personnel: 21,000
ICU doctors, 84,000 ICU nurses, 21,000 ward nurses
Agra
Population. 1.6 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties: 480,000
ICU Bed Requirement: 96,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 240,000
Ventilators Needed: 72,000
Medical Personnel. 24,000 ICU doctors, 96,000 ICU nurses
Gurgaon
Population. 1.5 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties: 450,000
ICU Bed Requirement: 90,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 225,000
Ventilators Needed: 67,500
Medical Personnel. 22,500 ICU doctors, 90,000 ICU nurses;
Chandigarh
Population. 1.1 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties: 330,000
ICU Bed Requirement: 66,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 165,000
Ventilators Needed: 49,500
Medical Personnel. 16,500 ICU doctors, 66,000 ICU nurses
Jullandhar
Population. 0.9 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties: 270,000
ICU Bed Requirement: 54,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 135,000
Ventilators Needed: 40,500
Medical Personnel. 13,500 ICU doctors, 54,000 ICU nurses;
Amritsar
Population. 1.1 million
Estimated Nuclear Casualties: 330,000
ICU Bed Requirement: 66,000
Ward Bed Requirement: 165,000
Ventilators Needed: 49,500
Medical Personnel. 16,500 ICU doctors, 66,000 ICU nurses; Based on projected impacts,
Cyberattacks and the Collapse of Digital Identity Systems
A full-spectrum cyberattack during war could cripple health systems, block identity verification, and trigger nationwide panic. Digital dependencies like Aadhaar, PAN, voter ID, hospital records, and food entitlements are all vulnerable.
Key Consequences
Health records are inaccessible, delaying or misguiding treatment.
Citizens cannot prove their identity, access ration cards, or receive aid.
Relief efforts collapse due to broken verification systems.
Recommendations
The National Identity Card (NIC) integrates key IDs, blood group, and medical data.
Offline-ready biometric/QR verification tools with sync options.
Local data vaults with encrypted backups at the district level.
Color-coded paper entitlement cards.
Cyber drills and response teams under MHA and MEITY.
Emergency privacy and data protection laws are needed to ensure ethical use during a crisis.
Without resilient, redundant ID systems, national morale, social order, and basic survival will be jeopardized.
SWOT Analysis. India 2025 vs 1971
In 1971, India’s civil defense readiness was relatively more structured. Drills were conducted, and communities were actively involved in blackout protocols and emergency rehearsals. Evacuation planning focused on border and frontline areas, while temporary bunkers were set up for public safety. Medical readiness primarily relied on military hospitals and communication systems, though manual systems were dependable and resilient.
In contrast, in 2025, civil defense remains largely dormant and disconnected from operational military structures. Urban evacuation planning is nearly nonexistent, and the opportunity to repurpose metro tunnels and basements into emergency shelters remains untapped. The medical response infrastructure is weak and lacks coordination, with public awareness at an all-time low. Now reliant on digital technology, communication systems are highly vulnerable to cyberattacks. While volunteerism existed spontaneously in 1971, its potential remains latent and unstructured today. Moreover, internal threat surveillance, which was limited in the past, is now a critical concern due to the presence of Over Ground Workers (OGWs), sleeper cells, and potential saboteurs.
Advisory for Policymakers
Civil Defense Legislation. Enact a dedicated Civil Defense Act integrated with the NDMA framework that lays down wartime civilian protocols, resource allocation, and institutional accountability.
Metro and Basement Shelters. The mandate is to retrofit metro corridors, high-rise basements, and public building foundations to serve as fallout shelters equipped with blowers, water tanks, emergency toilets, and backup power.
Resilience Corps. Form a National Civil Resilience Corps composed of veterans, NCC/NSS cadets, and trained volunteers, maintained at district and city levels to support civil defence operations.
Evacuation Mapping. Develop and publicly disseminate district-wise evacuation zones, triage locations, and safe passage corridors for both urban and peri-urban areas.
Redundant Infrastructure. Incentivize decentralized water supply, solar microgrids, composting toilets, and underground cabling in high-risk metros and border zones.
First Responder Empowerment. Create training and war-readiness standards for police, firefighters, doctors, and civic administrators. Equip them with NBC kits and command chain clarity during a crisis.
National Identity Contingency. Implement the NEIC (National Emergency Identity Card), ensure encrypted offline-ready Aadhaar-linked systems, and legislate protections for secure use during cyber war scenarios.
Mock Drills and Strategic Games. Institutionalize multi-agency disaster rehearsals involving all stakeholders, including the media, schools, RWAS, and religious institutions.
Counter-Subversion Measures. Strengthen coordination between intelligence, cyber, and local law enforcement agencies to neutralize OGWS, saboteurs, and sleeper cells during chaos.
Strategic Planning Inclusion. Fully integrate civil defense into National Security Council (NSC) decision-making, war games, and strategic policy documents, treating it as a co-equal pillar of national preparedness.
Conclusion
India cannot afford to fight 21st-century wars with 20th-century civilian preparedness. The next conflict will not wait for us to build bomb shelters or prepare evacuation routes. We must act before, not after, disaster strikes.
Civil defence is not paranoia. It is the essence of resilience and the soul of national survival.